20% Chance of Rain. Exploring the Concept of Risk

A practical guide to adopting an accurate risk analysis methodology The Failure of Risk Management provides effective solutionstosignificantfaults in current risk analysis methods. Conventional approaches to managing risk lack accurate quantitative analysis methods, yielding strategies that can actually make things worse. Many widely used methods have no systems to measure performance, resulting in inaccurate selection and ineffective application of risk management strategies. These fundamental flaws propagate unrealistic perceptions of risk in business, government, and the general public. This book provides expert examination of essential areas of risk management, including risk assessment and evaluation methods, risk mitigation strategies, common errors in quantitative models, and more. Guidance on topics such as probability modelling and empirical inputs emphasizes the efficacy of appropriate risk methodology in practical applications.  Recognized as a leader in the field of risk management, author Douglas W. Hubbard combines science-based analysis with real-world examples to present a detailed investigation of risk management practices. This revised and updated second edition includes updated data sets and checklists, expanded coverage of innovative statistical methods, and new cases of current risk management issues such as data breaches and natural disasters. Identify deficiencies in your current risk management strategy and take appropriate corrective measures Adopt a calibrated approach to risk analysis using up-to-date statistical tools Employ accurate quantitative risk analysis and modelling methods Keep pace with new developments in the rapidly expanding risk analysis industry Risk analysis is a vital component of government policy, public safety, banking and finance, and many other public and private institutions. The Failure of Risk Management: Why It's Broken and How to Fix It is a valuable resource for business leaders, policy makers, managers, consultants, and practitioners across industries.

A definitive cultural history of high finance from one of the industry's most astute analysts Written by internationally respected financial expert Satyajit Das, Extreme Money shows how real engineering was replaced by financial engineering in the twentieth century, enabling vast fortunes to be made not from goods produced or services performed, but from supplying and trading money. Extreme Money focuses on this eviscerated reality—the monetary shadow of real things—and what it means today. The high levels of economic growth and the wealth that inevitably follows, driven by cheap debt, financial engineering, and speculation, were never sustainable, and the last few years have borne this out. The book shows how policy makers and regulators unknowingly underwrote the risks, substantially reducing their ability to control economic outcomes. Extreme money concentrated economic power, wealth, and risk in the hands of a small community of gifted, dynamic financiers largely outside the regulatory purview and the democratic process, and there's no going back. Explains the extreme money games (via private equity, securitization, derivatives, hedge funds, and other means) invented by the elite financiers of last century Raises deeper questions about the nature of the economic structure and assumptions about ongoing financially engineered prosperity that readers, politicians, and financial figures need to be asking The book is timed to coincide with the next phase of the financial crisis, as prospects of recovery diminish and the global economy becomes mired in a Western version of Japan's «Lost Decade» Ambitious in scope and coverage, the book is the indispensible, in-depth guide to the age of modern money. An age defined by extremes of financial behavior.

In high-stakes investing and business, success or failure largely depends on how well you play the game of risk-a game in which the rules of competition are constantly being rewritten. Strategies that proved effective in the past are no longer enough to win today. The key to success is not to rely on yesterday's news, but to peer into the future and ask what could happen tomorrow. Presenting a bold new way of thinking about risk, in Seeing Tomorrow Ron Dembo and Andrew Freeman offer a dynamic framework designed to enhance our ability to make important decisions, and consequently change how we manage our investments. By incorporating investors' individual circumstances and tolerances -as well as the unique reasoning behind their decision making-this innovative approach captures much more of how we actually think about risk. From the basic building blocks required for forward-looking risk management, Dembo and Freeman define and explore the roles and significance of such fundamentals as time horizons, risk measures, benchmarks, and scenarios. Once the foundation is laid, these elements are used to construct a solid architecture for risk management and risk-adjusted analysis that is not only general enough to be able to handle a multitude of risks, but also able to present many different measures of risk. With clear-cut explanations and intriguing real-world examples, Seeing Tomorrow leads you step by step through the authors' groundbreaking risk rules. These include: choosing an appropriate time horizon, selecting scenarios, computing Value at Risk (VAR), assessing both the upside and downside of a potential deal, calculating Regret, and compiling a reliable Regret matrix. By combining Regret, Upside, and a measure of our tolerance for risk, the authors demonstrate how these components create a powerful new way of approaching decisions. They offer guidance on very specific real life problems-such as buying a house or suing someone-as well as on broad matters of strategy and investing. Written by two leading authorities in the field, Seeing Tomorrow is a milestone addition to risk literature that will dramatically alter the way you view, identify, and manage risk. It is must reading for investors and decision makers alike. «Seeing Tomorrow is a powerhouse in the understanding of risk. With their ingenious blend of psychology and rigorous quantitative analysis, the authors have created an authoritative and innovative handbook of risk management that is essential for both practitioners and theoreticians.» -Peter L. Bernstein author, Against the Gods and Capital Ideas. «This excellent and readable book provides an innovative approach to choosing actions when the outcomes are uncertain. Anyone with an interest in improving their decision-making skills would benefit from reading this. Anyone with a professional interest in risk management must read it.» -Stephen A. Ross Fischer Black Visiting Professor of Finance Massachusetts Institute of Technology Sloan School of Management Sterling Professor of Economics and Finance, Yale University. «Ron Dembo and Andrew Freeman have done an excellent job of describing how to think about and measure risk. This will become required reading for businesses and personal investment executives.» -Ned C. Lautenbach.

One of the financial world's most respected experts on the psychology of risk provides a revolutionary risk management model Over the past three decades investors have adopted all varieties of complex quantitative systems for quantifying and managing risk. Yet, sophisticated investors and money managers continue to suffer record losses in today's increasingly volatile markets. This book bridges the gap between investor psychology and quantitative risk management with a revolutionary risk management program that virtually any trader or investor can easily adapt to their goals and personalities. Using numerous fascinating real-life case studies, Dr. Kiev illustrates the various psychological and emotional traps to which even the savviest investors can fall victim. He develops a dynamic new risk management model that combines quantitative models and money management techniques. He also provides rigorous guidelines that will help readers answer such crucial questions as: How much should I trade? How much risk can I handle? and When should I get out?

An innovative guide that identifies what distinguishes the best financial risk takers from the rest From 1987 to 1992, a small group of Wall Street quants invented an entirely new way of managing risk to maximize success: risk management for risk-takers. This is the secret that lets tiny quantitative edges create hedge fund billionaires, and defines the powerful modern global derivatives economy. The same practical techniques are still used today by risk-takers in finance as well as many other fields. Red-Blooded Risk examines this approach and offers valuable advice for the calculated risk-takers who need precise quantitative guidance that will help separate them from the rest of the pack. While most commentators say that the last financial crisis proved it's time to follow risk-minimizing techniques, they're wrong. The only way to succeed at anything is to manage true risk, which includes the chance of loss. Red-Blooded Risk presents specific, actionable strategies that will allow you to be a practical risk-taker in even the most dynamic markets. Contains a secret history of Wall Street, the parts all the other books leave out Includes an intellectually rigorous narrative addressing what it takes to really make it in any risky activity, on or off Wall Street Addresses essential issues ranging from the way you think about chance to economics, politics, finance, and life Written by Aaron Brown, one of the most calculated and successful risk takers in the world of finance, who was an active participant in the creation of modern risk management and had a front-row seat to the last meltdown Written in an engaging but rigorous style, with no equations Contains illustrations and graphic narrative by renowned manga artist Eric Kim There are people who disapprove of every risk before the fact, but never stop anyone from doing anything dangerous because they want to take credit for any success. The recent financial crisis has swelled their ranks, but in learning how to break free of these people, you'll discover how taking on the right risk can open the door to the most profitable opportunities.

A concise introduction to financial risk management strategies, policies, and techniques This ideal guide for business professionals focuses on strategic and management issues associated with financial risk. Essentials of Financial Risk Management identifies risk-mitigation policies and strategies; suggestions for determining an organization's risk tolerance; and sources of risk associated with currency exchange rates, interest rates, credit exposure, commodity prices, and other related events. Examples illustrate risk scenarios and offer tips on an array of management alternatives, including changes in the way business is conducted and hedging strategies involving derivatives.

Get ahead of emerging markets with top-performer picks for up-and-comers Frontier helps investors successfully navigate markets that are yet to “emerge,” with expert advice on spotting opportunities and minimising risks. With first-hand insights into frontier markets as we travel with big-name fund managers from Mark Mobius to Morgan Stanley, this practical guide ranks countries, stocks and bonds on a five- to ten-year horizon to steer investors toward the most promising destinations. Written in a compelling and accessible travelogue narrative, each chapter covers a specific country, providing invaluable market analysis and a deep understanding of the political, economic, and social background of those most likely to outperform. The key focus is on fresh ideas, based on the assessments from top performing money managers when meeting challenges, hostilities or adversity, and observations after interviewing high-level government officials and executives. With advanced economies shackled by debt and sluggish growth, investors are increasingly turning to emerging markets for better returns. Yet the money managers who came out on top in China, India, and Brazil are now focusing their attention on markets that have not yet emerged. This book applies the perspective of ten of the most successful fund managers in their field, providing an unparalleled guide to assessing investment potential in places better known for conflict, poverty and corruption. · Discover which markets have the best prospects, and which are potential disasters · Analyse individual markets by metrics including macro data, global relative value comparisons of stocks and bonds, buy/ sell triggers, and more · Learn which industries, stocks and bonds should be considered in each market · Examine each country through real-life on-the-ground assessment of corruption, conflict and other risks as well as inspirational breakthroughs that signal opportunities This is a practical manual for all investors – whether students or professionals – wanting to get to know the most promising new markets while avoiding the pitfalls. A must-read for corporate executives seeking global capital, Frontier provides a better understanding of the changing international investment dynamic. Robin Wigglesworth, FT: “Invaluable.” Mark Mobius, Templeton: “I love it! Beautiful descriptive writing.” Aliko Dangote, Wealthiest African: “Captivating tales, masterly woven.”

Over the past decade organizations have faced relentless customer demand for better value at less cost, individual customization, greater choice, faster delivery, higher quality, exceptional service, and more recently – increased environmental and social consciousness. The organization’s weapon of choice to address this increasing demand has been the supply chain. However, as the supply chain footprint changed (e.g. outsourcing, off-shoring and customer/vendor empowerment) so did the organization’s exposure to uncertainty. Organizations were taken by surprise since this exposure was unanticipated, complex and beyond their ability to manage. As customers become more demanding and change occurs at an even greater pace, supply chain risk continues to propagate like a parasite. Organizations and societies are at much greater risk of systemic failure because of the massive interdependency throughout global supply chains. The priority now is two-fold; play catch-up and address these massive gaps while deploying more intelligent and integrated strategies (i.e. social aware, instinctive, dynamic and predictive) for dealing with continuous change. Single Point of Failure: The 10 Essential Laws of Supply Chain Risk Management uses analogies and dozens of case histories to describe the risk parasite that infects all supply chains while revealing methods to neutralize that parasite. The book addresses the questions: What are the «single points of failure»? How exposed are customers, investors, other stakeholders and ultimately the organization? What is the measurable impact (i.e. brand, financial, strategic, and non-compliance)? Who establishes the «risk paradigm»? How does the organization efficiently and effectively allocate precious resources – time, people, management attention, and capital? How is success measured? This book is both technically powerful and effectively realistic, based on today's complex global economy.