A Climate Modelling Primer

As a consequence of recent increased awareness of the social and political dimensions of climate, many non-specialists discover a need for information about the variety of available climate models. A Climate Modelling Primer, Fourth Edition is designed to explain the basis and mechanisms of all types of current physically-based climate models. A thoroughly revised and updated edition, this book will assist the reader in understanding the complexities and applicabilities of today’s wide range of climate models. Topics covered include the latest techniques for modelling the coupled biosphere-ocean-atmosphere system, information on current practical aspects of climate modelling and ways to evaluate and exploit the results, discussion of Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs), and interactive exercises based on Energy Balance Model (EBM) and the Daisyworld model. Source codes and results from a range of model types allows readers to make their own climate simulations and to view the results of the latest high resolution models. Now in full colour throughout and with the addition of cartoons to enhance student understanding the new edition of this successful textbook enables the student to tackle the difficult subject of climate modeling.

The quantitative assessment of the impact of climate change on water availability and water resources management requires knowledge of climate, hydro(geo)logical and water resources models, and particularly the relationships between each of them. This book brings together world experts on each of these aspects, distilling each complex topic into concise and easy to understand chapters, in which both the uses and limitations of modelling are explored. The book concludes with a set of case studies using real-life examples to illustrate the steps required and the problems that can be faced in assessing the potential impacts of climate change on water resource systems. For students, scientists, engineers and decision-makers alike, this book provides an invaluable and critical look at the information that is provided by climate models, and the ways it is used in modelling water systems. A key focus is the exploration of how uncertainties may accrue at each stage of an impacts assessment, and the reliability of the resulting information. The book is a practical guide to understanding the opportunities and pitfalls in the quantitative assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation in the water resource sector.

An important resource that provides an overview of mathematical modelling Mathematical Modelling offers a comprehensive guide to both analytical and computational aspects of mathematical modelling that encompasses a wide range of subjects. The authors provide an overview of the basic concepts of mathematical modelling and review the relevant topics from differential equations and linear algebra. The text explores the various types of mathematical models, and includes a range of examples that help to describe a variety of techniques from dynamical systems theory. The book’s analytical techniques examine compartmental modelling, stability, bifurcation, discretization, and fixed-point analysis. The theoretical analyses involve systems of ordinary differential equations for deterministic models. The text also contains information on concepts of probability and random variables as the requirements of stochastic processes. In addition, the authors describe algorithms for computer simulation of both deterministic and stochastic models, and review a number of well-known models that illustrate their application in different fields of study. This important resource: Includes a broad spectrum of models that fall under deterministic and stochastic classes and discusses them in both continuous and discrete forms Demonstrates the wide spectrum of problems that can be addressed through mathematical modelling based on fundamental tools and techniques in applied mathematics and statistics Contains an appendix that reveals the overall approach that can be taken to solve exercises in different chapters Offers many exercises to help better understand the modelling process Written for graduate students in applied mathematics, instructors, and professionals using mathematical modelling for research and training purposes, Mathematical Modelling: A Graduate Textbook covers a broad range of analytical and computational aspects of mathematical modelling.

WILEY-INTERSCIENCE PAPERBACK SERIES The Wiley-Interscience Paperback Series consists of selected books that have been made more accessible to consumers in an effort to increase global appeal and general circulation. With these new unabridged softcover volumes, Wiley hopes to extend the lives of these works by making them available to future generations of statisticians, mathematicians, and scientists. « . . . [a] treasure house of material for students and teachers alike . . . can be dipped into regularly for inspiration and ideas. It deserves to become a classic.» —London Times Higher Education Supplement «The author succeeds in his goal of serving the needs of the undergraduate population who want to see mathematics in action, and the mathematics used is extensive and provoking.» —SIAM Review «Each chapter discusses a wealth of examples ranging from old standards . . . to novelty . . . each model is developed critically, analyzed critically, and assessed critically.» —Mathematical Reviews A Concrete Approach to Mathematical Modelling provides in-depth and systematic coverage of the art and science of mathematical modelling. Dr. Mesterton-Gibbons shows how the modelling process works and includes fascinating examples from virtually every realm of human, machine, natural, and cosmic activity. Various models are found throughout the book, including how to determine how fast cars drive through a tunnel, how many workers industry should employ, the length of a supermarket checkout line, and more. With detailed explanations, exercises, and examples demonstrating real-life applications in diverse fields, this book is the ultimate guide for students and professionals in the social sciences, life sciences, engineering, statistics, economics, politics, business and management sciences, and every other discipline in which mathematical modelling plays a role.

The essential resource to an integrated approach to reservoir modelling by highlighting both the input of data and the modelling results Reservoir Modelling offers a comprehensive guide to the procedures and workflow for building a 3-D model. Designed to be practical, the principles outlined can be applied to any modelling project regardless of the software used. The author – a noted practitioner in the field – captures the heterogeneity due to structure, stratigraphy and sedimentology that has an impact on flow in the reservoir. This essential guide follows a general workflow from data QC and project management, structural modelling, facies and property modelling to upscaling and the requirements for dynamic modelling. The author discusses structural elements of a model and reviews both seismic interpretation and depth conversion, which are known to contribute most to volumetric uncertainty and shows how large-scale stratigraphic relationships are integrated into the reservoir framework. The text puts the focus on geostatistical modelling of facies and heterogeneities that constrain the distribution of reservoir properties including porosity, permeability and water saturation. In addition, the author discusses the role of uncertainty analysis in the static model and its impact on volumetric estimation. The text also addresses some typical approaches to modelling specific reservoirs through a mix of case studies and illustrative examples and: Offers a practical guide to the use of data to build a successful reservoir model Draws on the latest advances in 3-D modelling software Reviews facies modelling, the different methods and the need for understanding the geological interpretation of cores and logs Presents information on upscaling both the structure and the properties of a fine-scale geological model for dynamic simulation Stresses the importance of an interdisciplinary team-based approach Written for geophysicists, reservoir geologists and petroleum engineers, Reservoir Modelling offers the essential information needed to understand a reservoir for modelling and contains the multidisciplinary nature of a reservoir modelling project.

Already the market leader in the field, Modelling Transport has become still more indispensible following a thorough and detailed update. Enhancements include two entirely new chapters on modelling for private sector projects and on activity-based modelling; a new section on dynamic assignment and micro-simulation; and sizeable updates to sections on disaggregate modelling and stated preference design and analysis. It also tackles topical issues such as valuation of externalities and the role of GPS in travel time surveys. Providing unrivalled depth and breadth of coverage, each topic is approached as a modelling exercise with discussion of the roles of theory, data, model specification, estimation, validation and application. The authors present the state of the art and its practical application in a pedagogic manner, easily understandable to both students and practitioners. Follows on from the highly successful third edition universally acknowledged as the leading text on transport modelling techniques and applications Includes two new chapters on modelling for private sector projects and activity based modeling, and numerous updates to existing chapters Incorporates treatment of recent issues and concerns like risk analysis and the dynamic interaction between land use and transport Provides comprehensive and rigorous information and guidance, enabling readers to make practical use of every available technique Relates the topics to new external factors and technologies such as global warming, valuation of externalities and global positioning systems (GPS).

Simulation models are an established method used to investigate processes and solve practical problems in a wide variety of disciplines. Central to the concept of this second edition is the idea that environmental systems are complex, open systems. The authors present the diversity of approaches to dealing with environmental complexity and then encourage readers to make comparisons between these approaches and between different disciplines. Environmental Modelling: Finding Simplicity in Complexity 2nd edition is divided into four main sections: An overview of methods and approaches to modelling. State of the art for modelling environmental processes Tools used and models for management Current and future developments. The second edition evolves from the first by providing additional emphasis and material for those students wishing to specialize in environmental modelling. This edition: Focuses on simplifying complex environmental systems. Reviews current software, tools and techniques for modelling. Gives practical examples from a wide variety of disciplines, e.g. climatology, ecology, hydrology, geomorphology and engineering. Has an associated website containing colour images, links to WWW resources and chapter support pages, including data sets relating to case studies, exercises and model animations. This book is suitable for final year undergraduates and postgraduates in environmental modelling, environmental science, civil engineering and biology who will already be familiar with the subject and are moving on to specialize in the field. It is also designed to appeal to professionals interested in the environmental sciences, including environmental consultants, government employees, civil engineers, geographers, ecologists, meteorologists, and geochemists.

A quick and concise guide to currency options An understanding of currency options is essential for those working in investment and foreign exchange. A Currency Options Primer sets out to give readers a clear guide to how the currency option market functions, offering practical advice on mastering the necessary components and concepts for fully understanding the workings of this market.

Rainfall-Runoff Modelling: The Primer, Second Edition is the follow-up of this popular and authoritative text, first published in 2001. The book provides both a primer for the novice and detailed descriptions of techniques for more advanced practitioners, covering rainfall-runoff models and their practical applications. This new edition extends these aims to include additional chapters dealing with prediction in ungauged basins, predicting residence time distributions, predicting the impacts of change and the next generation of hydrological models. Giving a comprehensive summary of available techniques based on established practices and recent research the book offers a thorough and accessible overview of the area. Rainfall-Runoff Modelling: The Primer Second Edition focuses on predicting hydrographs using models based on data and on representations of hydrological process. Dealing with the history of the development of rainfall-runoff models, uncertainty in mode predictions, good and bad practice and ending with a look at how to predict future catchment hydrological responses this book provides an essential underpinning of rainfall-runoff modelling topics. Fully revised and updated version of this highly popular text Suitable for both novices in the area and for more advanced users and developers Written by a leading expert in the field Guide to internet sources for rainfall-runoff modelling software

Insightful modelling of dynamic systems for better business strategy The business environment is constantly changing and organisations need the ability to rehearse alternative futures. By mimicking the interlocking operations of firms and industries, modelling serves as a ‘dry run’ for testing ideas, anticipating consequences, avoiding strategic pitfalls and improving future performance. Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics is an essential guide to credible models; helping you to understand modelling as a creative process for distilling and communicating those factors that drive business success and sustainability. Written by an internationally regarded authority, the book covers all stages of model building, from conceptual to analytical. The book demonstrates a range of in-depth practical examples that vividly illustrate important or puzzling dynamics in firm operations, strategy, public policy, and everyday life. This updated new edition also offers a rich Learners' website with models, articles and videos, as well as a separate Instructors' website resource, with lecture slides and other course materials (see Related Websites/Extra section below). Together the book and websites deliver a powerful package of blended learning materials that: Introduce the system dynamics approach of modelling strategic problems in business and society Include industry examples and public sector applications with interactive simulators and contemporary visual modelling software Provide the latest state-of-the-art thinking, concepts and techniques for systems modelling The comprehensive Learners' website features models, microworlds, journal articles and videos. Easy-to-use simulators enable readers to experience dynamic complexity in business and society. Like would-be CEOs, readers can re-design operations and then re-simulate in the quest for well-coordinated strategy and better performance. The simulators include a baffling hotel shower, a start-up low-cost airline, an international radio broadcaster, a diversifying tyre maker, commercial fisheries and the global oil industry. «Much more than an introduction, John Morecroft’s Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics uses interactive ‘mini-simulators and microworlds’ to create an engaging and effective learning environment in which readers, whatever their background, can develop their intuition about complex dynamic systems.» John Sterman, Jay W. Forrester Professor of Management, MIT Sloan School of Management «Illustrated by examples from everyday life, business and policy, John Morecroft expertly demonstrates how systems thinking aided by system dynamics can improve our understanding of the world around us.» Stewart Robinson, Associate Dean Research, President of the Operational Research Society, Professor of Management Science, School of Business and Economics, Loughborough University