Bayesian Methods for Management and Business

An accessible introduction to the essential quantitative methods for making valuable business decisions Quantitative methods-research techniques used to analyze quantitative data-enable professionals to organize and understand numbers and, in turn, to make good decisions. Quantitative Methods: An Introduction for Business Management presents the application of quantitative mathematical modeling to decision making in a business management context and emphasizes not only the role of data in drawing conclusions, but also the pitfalls of undiscerning reliance of software packages that implement standard statistical procedures. With hands-on applications and explanations that are accessible to readers at various levels, the book successfully outlines the necessary tools to make smart and successful business decisions. Progressing from beginner to more advanced material at an easy-to-follow pace, the author utilizes motivating examples throughout to aid readers interested in decision making and also provides critical remarks, intuitive traps, and counterexamples when appropriate. The book begins with a discussion of motivations and foundations related to the topic, with introductory presentations of concepts from calculus to linear algebra. Next, the core ideas of quantitative methods are presented in chapters that explore introductory topics in probability, descriptive and inferential statistics, linear regression, and a discussion of time series that includes both classical topics and more challenging models. The author also discusses linear programming models and decision making under risk as well as less standard topics in the field such as game theory and Bayesian statistics. Finally, the book concludes with a focus on selected tools from multivariate statistics, including advanced regression models and data reduction methods such as principal component analysis, factor analysis, and cluster analysis. The book promotes the importance of an analytical approach, particularly when dealing with a complex system where multiple individuals are involved and have conflicting incentives. A related website features Microsoft Excel® workbooks and MATLAB® scripts to illustrate concepts as well as additional exercises with solutions. Quantitative Methods is an excellent book for courses on the topic at the graduate level. The book also serves as an authoritative reference and self-study guide for financial and business professionals, as well as readers looking to reinforce their analytical skills.

Bayesian methods are a powerful tool in many areas of science and engineering, especially statistical physics, medical sciences, electrical engineering, and information sciences. They are also ideal for civil engineering applications, given the numerous types of modeling and parametric uncertainty in civil engineering problems. For example, earthquake ground motion cannot be predetermined at the structural design stage. Complete wind pressure profiles are difficult to measure under operating conditions. Material properties can be difficult to determine to a very precise level – especially concrete, rock, and soil. For air quality prediction, it is difficult to measure the hourly/daily pollutants generated by cars and factories within the area of concern. It is also difficult to obtain the updated air quality information of the surrounding cities. Furthermore, the meteorological conditions of the day for prediction are also uncertain. These are just some of the civil engineering examples to which Bayesian probabilistic methods are applicable. Familiarizes readers with the latest developments in the field Includes identification problems for both dynamic and static systems Addresses challenging civil engineering problems such as modal/model updating Presents methods applicable to mechanical and aerospace engineering Gives engineers and engineering students a concrete sense of implementation Covers real-world case studies in civil engineering and beyond, such as: structural health monitoring seismic attenuation finite-element model updating hydraulic jump artificial neural network for damage detection air quality prediction Includes other insightful daily-life examples Companion website with MATLAB code downloads for independent practice Written by a leading expert in the use of Bayesian methods for civil engineering problems This book is ideal for researchers and graduate students in civil and mechanical engineering or applied probability and statistics. Practicing engineers interested in the application of statistical methods to solve engineering problems will also find this to be a valuable text. MATLAB code and lecture materials for instructors available at http://www.wiley.com/go/yuen

The first all-inclusive introduction to modern statistical research methods in the natural resource sciences The use of Bayesian statistical analysis has become increasingly important to natural resource scientists as a practical tool for solving various research problems. However, many important contemporary methods of applied statistics, such as generalized linear modeling, mixed-effects modeling, and Bayesian statistical analysis and inference, remain relatively unknown among researchers and practitioners in this field. Through its inclusive, hands-on treatment of real-world examples, Contemporary Bayesian and Frequentist Statistical Research Methods for Natural Resource Scientists successfully introduces the key concepts of statistical analysis and inference with an accessible, easy-to-follow approach. The book provides case studies illustrating common problems that exist in the natural resource sciences and presents the statistical knowledge and tools needed for a modern treatment of these issues. Subsequent chapter coverage features: An introduction to the fundamental concepts of Bayesian statistical analysis, including its historical background, conjugate solutions, Bayesian hypothesis testing and decision-making, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo solutions The relevant advantages of using Bayesian statistical analysis, rather than the traditional frequentist approach, to address research problems Two alternative strategies?€”the a posteriori model selection strategy and the a priori parsimonious model selection strategy using AIC and DIC?€”to model selection and inference The ideas of generalized linear modeling (GLM), focusing on the most popular GLM of logistic regression An introduction to mixed-effects modeling in S-Plus?® and R for analyzing natural resource data sets with varying error structures and dependencies Each statistical concept is accompanied by an illustration of its frequentist application in S-Plus?® or R as well as its Bayesian application in WinBUGS. Brief introductions to these software packages are also provided to help the reader fully understand the concepts of the statistical methods that are presented throughout the book. Assuming only a minimal background in introductory statistics, Contemporary Bayesian and Frequentist Statistical Research Methods for Natural Resource Scientists is an ideal text for natural resource students studying statistical research methods at the upper-undergraduate or graduate level and also serves as a valuable problem-solving guide for natural resource scientists across a broad range of disciplines, including biology, wildlife management, forestry management, fisheries management, and the environmental sciences.

The focus of this book is on «ill-posed inverse problems». These problems cannot be solved only on the basis of observed data. The building of solutions involves the recognition of other pieces of a priori information. These solutions are then specific to the pieces of information taken into account. Clarifying and taking these pieces of information into account is necessary for grasping the domain of validity and the field of application for the solutions built. For too long, the interest in these problems has remained very limited in the signal-image community. However, the community has since recognized that these matters are more interesting and they have become the subject of much greater enthusiasm. From the application field’s point of view, a significant part of the book is devoted to conventional subjects in the field of inversion: biological and medical imaging, astronomy, non-destructive evaluation, processing of video sequences, target tracking, sensor networks and digital communications. The variety of chapters is also clear, when we examine the acquisition modalities at stake: conventional modalities, such as tomography and NMR, visible or infrared optical imaging, or more recent modalities such as atomic force imaging and polarized light imaging.

A balanced treatment of the theories, methodologies, and design issues involved in clinical trials using statistical methods There has been enormous interest and development in Bayesian adaptive designs, especially for early phases of clinical trials. However, for phase III trials, frequentist methods still play a dominant role through controlling type I and type II errors in the hypothesis testing framework. From practical perspectives, Clinical Trial Design: Bayesian and Frequentist Adaptive Methods provides comprehensive coverage of both Bayesian and frequentist approaches to all phases of clinical trial design. Before underpinning various adaptive methods, the book establishes an overview of the fundamentals of clinical trials as well as a comparison of Bayesian and frequentist statistics. Recognizing that clinical trial design is one of the most important and useful skills in the pharmaceutical industry, this book provides detailed discussions on a variety of statistical designs, their properties, and operating characteristics for phase I, II, and III clinical trials as well as an introduction to phase IV trials. Many practical issues and challenges arising in clinical trials are addressed. Additional topics of coverage include: Risk and benefit analysis for toxicity and efficacy trade-offs Bayesian predictive probability trial monitoring Bayesian adaptive randomization Late onset toxicity and response Dose finding in drug combination trials Targeted therapy designs The author utilizes cutting-edge clinical trial designs and statistical methods that have been employed at the world's leading medical centers as well as in the pharmaceutical industry. The software used throughout the book is freely available on the book's related website, equipping readers with the necessary tools for designing clinical trials. Clinical Trial Design is an excellent book for courses on the topic at the graduate level. The book also serves as a valuable reference for statisticians and biostatisticians in the pharmaceutical industry as well as for researchers and practitioners who design, conduct, and monitor clinical trials in their everyday work.

A balanced treatment of the theories, methodologies, and design issues involved in clinical trials using statistical methods There has been enormous interest and development in Bayesian adaptive designs, especially for early phases of clinical trials. However, for phase III trials, frequentist methods still play a dominant role through controlling type I and type II errors in the hypothesis testing framework. From practical perspectives, Clinical Trial Design: Bayesian and Frequentist Adaptive Methods provides comprehensive coverage of both Bayesian and frequentist approaches to all phases of clinical trial design. Before underpinning various adaptive methods, the book establishes an overview of the fundamentals of clinical trials as well as a comparison of Bayesian and frequentist statistics. Recognizing that clinical trial design is one of the most important and useful skills in the pharmaceutical industry, this book provides detailed discussions on a variety of statistical designs, their properties, and operating characteristics for phase I, II, and III clinical trials as well as an introduction to phase IV trials. Many practical issues and challenges arising in clinical trials are addressed. Additional topics of coverage include: Risk and benefit analysis for toxicity and efficacy trade-offs Bayesian predictive probability trial monitoring Bayesian adaptive randomization Late onset toxicity and response Dose finding in drug combination trials Targeted therapy designs The author utilizes cutting-edge clinical trial designs and statistical methods that have been employed at the world's leading medical centers as well as in the pharmaceutical industry. The software used throughout the book is freely available on the book's related website, equipping readers with the necessary tools for designing clinical trials. Clinical Trial Design is an excellent book for courses on the topic at the graduate level. The book also serves as a valuable reference for statisticians and biostatisticians in the pharmaceutical industry as well as for researchers and practitioners who design, conduct, and monitor clinical trials in their everyday work.

How to conduct clinical trials in an ethical and scientifically responsible manner This book presents a methodology for clinical trials that produces improved health outcomes for patients while obtaining sound and unambiguous scientific data. It centers around a real-world test case–involving a treatment for hypertension after open heart surgery–and explains how to use Bayesian methods to accommodate both ethical and scientific imperatives. The book grew out of the direct involvement in the project by a diverse group of experts in medicine, statistics, philosophy, and the law. Not only do they contribute essays on the scientific, technological, legal, and ethical aspects of clinical trials, but they also critique and debate each other's opinions, creating an interesting, personalized text. Bayesian Methods and Ethics in a Clinical Trial Design * Answers commonly raised questions about Bayesian methods * Describes the advantages and disadvantages of this method compared with other methods * Applies current ethical theory to a particular class of design for clinical trials * Discusses issues of informed consent and how to serve a patient's best interest while still obtaining uncontaminated scientific data * Shows how to use Bayesian probabilistic methods to create computer models from elicited prior opinions of medical experts on the best treatment for a type of patient * Contains several chapters on the process, results, and computational aspects of the test case in question * Explores American law and the legal ramifications of using human subjects For statisticians and biostatisticians, and for anyone involved with medicine and public health, this book provides both a practical guide and a unique perspective on the connection between technological developments, human factors, and some of the larger ethical issues of our times.

An easy to implement, practical, and proven risk management methodology for project managers and decision makers Drawing from the author's work with several major and mega capital projects for Royal Dutch Shell, TransCanada Pipelines, TransAlta, Access Pipeline, MEG Energy, and SNC-Lavalin, Project Risk Management: Essential Methods for Project Teams and Decision Makers reveals how to implement a consistent application of risk methods, including probabilistic methods. It is based on proven training materials, models, and tools developed by the author to make risk management plans accessible and easily implemented. Written by an experienced risk management professional Reveals essential risk management methods for project teams and decision makers Packed with training materials, models, and tools for project management professionals Risk Management has been identified as one of the nine content areas for Project Management Professional (PMP®) certification. Yet, it remains an area that can get bogged down in the real world of project management. Practical and clearly written, Project Risk Management: Essential Methods for Project Teams and Decision Makers equips project managers and decision makers with a practical understanding of the basics of risk management as they apply to project management. (PMP and Project Management Professional are registered marks of the Project Management Institute, Inc.)

STATISTICS IN PRACTICE A practical exploration of alternative approaches to analyzing water-related environmental issues Written by an experienced environmentalist and recognized expert in the field, this text is designed to help water resource managers and scientists to formulate, implement, and interpret more effective methods of water quality management. After presenting the basic foundation for using statistical methods in water resource management, including the use of appropriate hypothesis test procedures and some rapid calculation procedures, the author offers a range of practical problems and solutions on environmental topics that often arise, but are not generally covered. These include: * Formulating water quality standards * Determining compliance with standards * MPNs and microbiology * Water-related, human health risk modeling * Trends, impacts, concordance, and detection limits In order to promote awareness of alternative approaches to analyzing data, both frequentist and Bayesian, statistical methods are contrasted in terms of their applicability to various environmental issues. Each chapter ends with a number of set problems for which full answers are provided. The book also encourages discussion between technical staff and management before embarking on statistical studies.

No longer restricted to the engineering industry, project management has at long last crossed over to mainstream business. Project Management for Business Professionals is the definitive reference on the essentials of contemporary project management. Featured here are some of the foremost practitioners and researchers from academia, consulting, and private industry, sharing their various areas of project management expertise and providing a wide range of perspectives on everything from risk management to resource planning to ethics management. Focusing on both the technical and human sides of the field, this unique resource follows the main points of the «project management body of knowledge»-the certification standard of the Project Management Institute. The experts address the procedures and processes for planning and managing projects and explore project team/group dynamics, examining the interpersonal relations and the political and organizational considerations that can impact a project.