Classic Problems of Probability

This volume makes Adorno's lectures on the problems of moral philosophy available for the first time to English-speaking readers. It is one of several volumes of Adorno's unpublished writings which are currently being published in Germany, and which will be published in translation by Polity. The book is organized around an account of Kant's moral theory, and introduces most of the central topics of Adorno's far more difficult work Negative Dialectics. He examines concepts such as the primacy of practical reason, the relation between freedom and experience, and the desubstantialization of moral thought. These and other concepts are discussed in an accessible and entertaining style which is very different from the rest of Adorno's published work. Problems of Moral Philosophy will be an important resource for scholars drawing on Adorno's thought, and its nature as a lecture course makes it a very useful and accessible introduction for students to Adorno's ideas about moral philosophy. It will be of great interest to those working in philosophy and in social and political thought.

October 19th 1987 was a day of huge change for the global finance industry. On this day the stock market crashed, the Nobel Prize winning Black-Scholes formula failed and volatility smiles were born, and on this day Elie Ayache began his career, on the trading floor of the French Futures and Options Exchange. Experts everywhere sought to find a model for this event, and ways to simulate it in order to avoid a recurrence in the future, but the one thing that struck Elie that day was the belief that what actually happened on 19th October 1987 is simply non reproducible outside 19th October 1987 – you cannot reduce it to a chain of causes and effects, or even to a random generator, that can then be reproduced or represented in a theoretical framework. The Blank Swan is Elie's highly original treatise on the financial markets – presenting a totally revolutionary rethinking of derivative pricing and technology. It is not a diatribe against Nassim Taleb’s The Black Swan, but criticises the whole background or framework of predictable and unpredictable events – white and black swans alike – , i.e. the very category of prediction. In this revolutionary book, Elie redefines the components of the technology needed to price and trade derivatives. Most importantly, and drawing on a long tradition of philosophy of the event from Henri Bergson to Gilles Deleuze, to Alain Badiou, and on a recent brand of philosophy of contingency, embodied by the speculative materialism of Quentin Meillassoux, Elie redefines the market itself against the common perceptions of orthodox financial theory, general equilibrium theory and the sociology of finance. This book will change the way that we think about derivatives and approach the market. If anything derivatives should be renamed contingent claims, where contingency is now absolute and no longer derivative, and the market is just its medium. The book also establishes the missing link between quantitative modelling (no longer dependent on probability theory but on a novel brand of mathematics which Elie calls the mathematics of price) and the reality of the market.

Patients with complex cardiovascular problems pose a special management challenge for both the specialist and the non-specialist. This book helps you approach difficult cases with the confidence to strategically map care, understand the risk profile of your patient, and make effective treatment decisions. Dependable and succinct content provides high yield information for the busy cardiologist Take home call outs, and critical thinking boxes provide candid advice on incorporating guidelines and evidence based medicine into your practice New convenient pocket-sized format New chapter addressing cardiovascular problems in women Discussion of high risk factors for and strategic care mapping encourage clinical focus Clinical pearls offer expert advice on topical issues Includes emerging trends and clinical trials keeping you up to date

This book provides a practical guide to, and critical review of, community and individual professional interventions that could ease the lives of children with developmental disorders and mental health problems. A critical review of, and practical guide to, the interventions that could ease the lives of children with developmental disorders and mental health problems. Structured around the stages and developmental tasks in a child’s life span, from conception to teenage years. Discusses inherited disorders, intrauterine problems, neonatal and perinatal problems, early childhood attachment and physical disorders, disabilities at school, and problems associated with socialisation. Also covers problems that affect children at all ages, such as learning disabilities, abuse and various psychological and psychiatric disorders. Consistently considers the role of parents, the family, and the community in interventions. Written by a leading expert in clinical child and adolescent psychology and social work. Bridges the gap between psychosocial interventions and medically-based treatments. Can be used alongside Herbert’s Typical and Atypical Development: From Conception to Adolescence (BPS Blackwell, 2003).

INTRODUCES THE FUNDAMENTALS OF PROBABILITY, STATISTICS, DECISION THEORY, AND GAME THEORY, AND FEATURES INTERESTING EXAMPLES OF GAMES OF CHANCE AND STRATEGY TO MOTIVATE AND ILLUSTRATE ABSTRACT MATHEMATICAL CONCEPTS Covering both random and strategic games, Probability, Decisions and Games features a variety of gaming and gambling examples to build a better understanding of basic concepts of probability, statistics, decision theory, and game theory. The authors present fundamental concepts such as random variables, rational choice theory, mathematical expectation and variance, fair games, combinatorial calculus, conditional probability, Bayes Theorem, Bernoulli trials, zero-sum games and Nash equilibria, as well as their application in games such as Roulette, Craps, Lotto, Blackjack, Poker, Rock-Paper-Scissors, the Game of Chicken and Tic-Tac-Toe. Computer simulations, implemented using the popular R computing environment, are used to provide intuition on key concepts and verify complex calculations. The book starts by introducing simple concepts that are carefully motivated by the same historical examples that drove their original development of the field of probability, and then applies those concepts to popular contemporary games. The first two chapters of Probability, Decisions and Games: A Gentle Introduction using R feature an introductory discussion of probability and rational choice theory in finite and discrete spaces that builds upon the simple games discussed in the famous correspondence between Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat. Subsequent chapters utilize popular casino games such as Roulette and Blackjack to expand on these concepts illustrate modern applications of these methodologies. Finally, the book concludes with discussions on game theory using a number of strategic games. This book: · Features introductory coverage of probability, statistics, decision theory and game theory, and has been class-tested at University of California, Santa Cruz for the past six years · Illustrates basic concepts in probability through interesting and fun examples using a number of popular casino games: roulette, lotto, craps, blackjack, and poker · Introduces key ideas in game theory using classic games such as Rock-Paper-Scissors, Chess, and Tic-Tac-Toe. · Features computer simulations using R throughout in order to illustrate complex concepts and help readers verify complex calculations · Contains exercises and approaches games and gambling at a level that is accessible for readers with minimal experience · Adopts a unique approach by motivating complex concepts using first simple games and then moving on to more complex, well-known games that illustrate how these concepts work together Probability, Decisions and Games: A Gentle Introduction using R is a unique and helpful textbook for undergraduate courses on statistical reasoning, introduction to probability, statistical literacy, and quantitative reasoning for students from a variety of disciplines. ABEL RODR?GUEZ, PhD, is Professor in the Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics at the University of California, Santa Cruz (UCSC), CA, USA. The author of 40 journal articles, his research interests include Bayesian nonparametric methods, machine learning, spatial temporal models, network models, and extreme value theory. BRUNO MENDES, PhD, is Lecturer in the Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics at the University of California, Santa Cruz, CA, USA. BRUNO MENDES, PhD, is Lecturer in the Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics at the University of Cal

An accessible and engaging introduction to the study of probability and statistics Utilizing entertaining real-world examples, A Probability and Statistics Companion provides aunique, interesting, and accessible introduction to probability and statistics. This one-of-a-kind book delves into practical topics that are crucial in the analysis of sample surveys and experimentation. This handy book contains introductory explanations of the major topics in probability and statistics, including hypothesis testing and regression, while also delving into more advanced topics such as the analysis of sample surveys, analysis of experimental data, and statistical process control. The book recognizes that there are many sampling techniques that can actually improve on simple random sampling, and in addition, an introduction to the design of experiments is provided to reflect recent advances in conducting scientific experiments. This blend of coverage results in the development of a deeper understanding and solid foundation for the study of probability and statistics. Additional topical coverage includes: Probability and sample spaces Choosing the best candidate Acceptance sampling Conditional probability Random variables and discrete probability distributions Waiting time problems Continuous probability distributions Statistical inference Nonparametric methods Least squares and medians Recursions and probability Each chapter contains exercises and explorations for readers who wish to conduct independent projects or investigations. The discussion of most methods is complemented with applications to engaging, real-world scenarios such as winning speeds at the Indianapolis 500 and predicting winners of the World Series. In addition, the book enhances the visual nature of the subject with numerous multidimensional graphical representations of the presented examples. A Probability and Statistics Companion is an excellent book for introductory probability and statistics courses at the undergraduate level. It is also a valuable reference for professionals who use statistical concepts to make informed decisions in their day-to-day work.

A comprehensive look at how probability and statistics is applied to the investment process Finance has become increasingly more quantitative, drawing on techniques in probability and statistics that many finance practitioners have not had exposure to before. In order to keep up, you need a firm understanding of this discipline. Probability and Statistics for Finance addresses this issue by showing you how to apply quantitative methods to portfolios, and in all matter of your practices, in a clear, concise manner. Informative and accessible, this guide starts off with the basics and builds to an intermediate level of mastery. • Outlines an array of topics in probability and statistics and how to apply them in the world of finance • Includes detailed discussions of descriptive statistics, basic probability theory, inductive statistics, and multivariate analysis • Offers real-world illustrations of the issues addressed throughout the text The authors cover a wide range of topics in this book, which can be used by all finance professionals as well as students aspiring to enter the field of finance.

The last three decades have seen an explosion of social, psychological and clinical research to identify effective strategies to prevent and treat alcohol-related problems. This “Essential Handbook” contains an updated selection of reviews of “what works” drawn from the critically acclaimed International Handbook of Alcohol Dependence and Problems. Selected specifically for health and other professionals, who need to provide effective responses in their work, these authoritative, science-based reviews are a distillation of the more practical elements, designed to save time for the busy practitioner.

Family Problems: Stress, Risk, and Resilience presents an interdisciplinary collection of original essays that push the boundaries of family science to reflect the increasingly diverse complexity of family concerns in the modern world. Represents the most up-to-date family problem research while addressing such contemporary issues as parental incarceration, same sex marriage, health care disparities, and welfare reform Features brief chapter introductions that provide context and direction to guide the student to the heart of what’s important in the piece that follows Includes critical thinking questions to enhance the utility of the book for classroom use Responds to family problem issues through the lens of a social justice perspective

Provides an introduction to basic structures of probability with a view towards applications in information technology A First Course in Probability and Markov Chains presents an introduction to the basic elements in probability and focuses on two main areas. The first part explores notions and structures in probability, including combinatorics, probability measures, probability distributions, conditional probability, inclusion-exclusion formulas, random variables, dispersion indexes, independent random variables as well as weak and strong laws of large numbers and central limit theorem. In the second part of the book, focus is given to Discrete Time Discrete Markov Chains which is addressed together with an introduction to Poisson processes and Continuous Time Discrete Markov Chains. This book also looks at making use of measure theory notations that unify all the presentation, in particular avoiding the separate treatment of continuous and discrete distributions. A First Course in Probability and Markov Chains: Presents the basic elements of probability. Explores elementary probability with combinatorics, uniform probability, the inclusion-exclusion principle, independence and convergence of random variables. Features applications of Law of Large Numbers. Introduces Bernoulli and Poisson processes as well as discrete and continuous time Markov Chains with discrete states. Includes illustrations and examples throughout, along with solutions to problems featured in this book. The authors present a unified and comprehensive overview of probability and Markov Chains aimed at educating engineers working with probability and statistics as well as advanced undergraduate students in sciences and engineering with a basic background in mathematical analysis and linear algebra.