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Learn the science of collecting information to make effective decisions Everyday decisions are made without the benefit of accurate information. Optimal Learning develops the needed principles for gathering information to make decisions, especially when collecting information is time-consuming and expensive. Designed for readers with an elementary background in probability and statistics, the book presents effective and practical policies illustrated in a wide range of applications, from energy, homeland security, and transportation to engineering, health, and business. This book covers the fundamental dimensions of a learning problem and presents a simple method for testing and comparing policies for learning. Special attention is given to the knowledge gradient policy and its use with a wide range of belief models, including lookup table and parametric and for online and offline problems. Three sections develop ideas with increasing levels of sophistication: Fundamentals explores fundamental topics, including adaptive learning, ranking and selection, the knowledge gradient, and bandit problems Extensions and Applications features coverage of linear belief models, subset selection models, scalar function optimization, optimal bidding, and stopping problems Advanced Topics explores complex methods including simulation optimization, active learning in mathematical programming, and optimal continuous measurements Each chapter identifies a specific learning problem, presents the related, practical algorithms for implementation, and concludes with numerous exercises. A related website features additional applications and downloadable software, including MATLAB and the Optimal Learning Calculator, a spreadsheet-based package that provides an introduc­tion to learning and a variety of policies for learning.

Theoretical Foundations of Functional Data Analysis, with an Introduction to Linear Operators provides a uniquely broad compendium of the key mathematical concepts and results that are relevant for the theoretical development of functional data analysis (FDA). The self–contained treatment of selected topics of functional analysis and operator theory includes reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, singular value decomposition of compact operators on Hilbert spaces and perturbation theory for both self–adjoint and non self–adjoint operators. The probabilistic foundation for FDA is described from the perspective of random elements in Hilbert spaces as well as from the viewpoint of continuous time stochastic processes. Nonparametric estimation approaches including kernel and regularized smoothing are also introduced. These tools are then used to investigate the properties of estimators for the mean element, covariance operators, principal components, regression function and canonical correlations. A general treatment of canonical correlations in Hilbert spaces naturally leads to FDA formulations of factor analysis, regression, MANOVA and discriminant analysis. This book will provide a valuable reference for statisticians and other researchers interested in developing or understanding the mathematical aspects of FDA. It is also suitable for a graduate level special topics course.

BEST PRACTICES TO CREATE AND IMPLEMENTHIGHLY EFFECTIVE WEB SURVEYS Exclusively combining design and sampling issues, Handbook of Web Surveys presents a theoretical yet practical approach to creating and conducting web surveys. From the history of web surveys to various modes of data collection to tips for detecting error, this book thoroughly introduces readers to the this cutting-edge technique and offers tips for creating successful web surveys. The authors provide a history of web surveys and go on to explore the advantages and disadvantages of this mode of data collection. Common challenges involving under-coverage, self-selection, and measurement errors are discussed as well as topics including: Sampling designs and estimation procedures Comparing web surveys to face-to-face, telephone, and mail surveys Errors in web surveys Mixed-mode surveys Weighting techniques including post-stratification, generalized regression estimation, and raking ratio estimation Use of propensity scores to correct bias Web panels Real-world examples illustrate the discussed concepts, methods, and techniques, with related data freely available on the book's Website. Handbook of Web Surveys is an essential reference for researchers in the fields of government, business, economics, and the social sciences who utilize technology to gather, analyze, and draw results from data. It is also a suitable supplement for survey methods courses at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.

Presents a probabilistic and information-theoretic framework for a search for static or moving targets in discrete time and space. Probabilistic Search for Tracking Targets uses an information-theoretic scheme to present a unified approach for known search methods to allow the development of new algorithms of search. The book addresses search methods under different constraints and assumptions, such as search uncertainty under incomplete information, probabilistic search scheme, observation errors, group testing, search games, distribution of search efforts, single and multiple targets and search agents, as well as online or offline search schemes. The proposed approach is associated with path planning techniques, optimal search algorithms, Markov decision models, decision trees, stochastic local search, artificial intelligence and heuristic information-seeking methods. Furthermore, this book presents novel methods of search for static and moving targets along with practical algorithms of partitioning and search and screening. Probabilistic Search for Tracking Targets includes complete material for undergraduate and graduate courses in modern applications of probabilistic search, decision-making and group testing, and provides several directions for further research in the search theory. The authors: Provide a generalized information-theoretic approach to the problem of real-time search for both static and moving targets over a discrete space. Present a theoretical framework, which covers known information-theoretic algorithms of search, and forms a basis for development and analysis of different algorithms of search over probabilistic space. Use numerous examples of group testing, search and path planning algorithms to illustrate direct implementation in the form of running routines. Consider a relation of the suggested approach with known search theories and methods such as search and screening theory, search games, Markov decision process models of search, data mining methods, coding theory and decision trees. Discuss relevant search applications, such as quality-control search for nonconforming units in a batch or a military search for a hidden target. Provide an accompanying website featuring the algorithms discussed throughout the book, along with practical implementations procedures.

A hands-on introduction to computational statistics from a Bayesian point of view Providing a solid grounding in statistics while uniquely covering the topics from a Bayesian perspective, Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics successfully guides readers through this new, cutting-edge approach. With its hands-on treatment of the topic, the book shows how samples can be drawn from the posterior distribution when the formula giving its shape is all that is known, and how Bayesian inferences can be based on these samples from the posterior. These ideas are illustrated on common statistical models, including the multiple linear regression model, the hierarchical mean model, the logistic regression model, and the proportional hazards model. The book begins with an outline of the similarities and differences between Bayesian and the likelihood approaches to statistics. Subsequent chapters present key techniques for using computer software to draw Monte Carlo samples from the incompletely known posterior distribution and performing the Bayesian inference calculated from these samples. Topics of coverage include: Direct ways to draw a random sample from the posterior by reshaping a random sample drawn from an easily sampled starting distribution The distributions from the one-dimensional exponential family Markov chains and their long-run behavior The Metropolis-Hastings algorithm Gibbs sampling algorithm and methods for speeding up convergence Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling Using numerous graphs and diagrams, the author emphasizes a step-by-step approach to computational Bayesian statistics. At each step, important aspects of application are detailed, such as how to choose a prior for logistic regression model, the Poisson regression model, and the proportional hazards model. A related Web site houses R functions and Minitab macros for Bayesian analysis and Monte Carlo simulations, and detailed appendices in the book guide readers through the use of these software packages. Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics is an excellent book for courses on computational statistics at the upper-level undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also a valuable reference for researchers and practitioners who use computer programs to conduct statistical analyses of data and solve problems in their everyday work.