Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

Introduces the latest developments in forecasting in advanced quantitative data analysis This book presents advanced univariate multiple regressions, which can directly be used to forecast their dependent variables, evaluate their in-sample forecast values, and compute forecast values beyond the sample period. Various alternative multiple regressions models are presented based on a single time series, bivariate, and triple time-series, which are developed by taking into account specific growth patterns of each dependent variables, starting with the simplest model up to the most advanced model. Graphs of the observed scores and the forecast evaluation of each of the models are offered to show the worst and the best forecast models among each set of the models of a specific independent variable. Advanced Time Series Data Analysis: Forecasting Using EViews provides readers with a number of modern, advanced forecast models not featured in any other book. They include various interaction models, models with alternative trends (including the models with heterogeneous trends), and complete heterogeneous models for monthly time series, quarterly time series, and annually time series. Each of the models can be applied by all quantitative researchers. Presents models that are all classroom tested Contains real-life data samples Contains over 350 equation specifications of various time series models Contains over 200 illustrative examples with special notes and comments Applicable for time series data of all quantitative studies Advanced Time Series Data Analysis: Forecasting Using EViews will appeal to researchers and practitioners in forecasting models, as well as those studying quantitative data analysis. It is suitable for those wishing to obtain a better knowledge and understanding on forecasting, specifically the uncertainty of forecast values.

Time Series Analysis in Meteorology and Climatology provides an accessible overview of this notoriously difficult subject. Clearly structured throughout, the authors develop sufficient theoretical foundation to understand the basis for applying various analytical methods to a time series and show clearly how to interpret the results. Taking a unique approach to the subject, the authors use a combination of theory and application to real data sets to enhance student understanding throughout the book. This book is written for those students that have a data set in the form of a time series and are confronted with the problem of how to analyse this data. Each chapter covers the various methods that can be used to carry out this analysis with coverage of the necessary theory and its application. In the theoretical section topics covered include; the mathematical origin of spectrum windows, leakage of variance and understanding spectrum windows. The applications section includes real data sets for students to analyse. Scalar variables are used for ease of understanding for example air temperatures, wind speed and precipitation. Students are encouraged to write their own computer programmes and data sets are provided to enable them to recognize quickly whether their programme is working correctly- one data set is provided with artificial data and the other with real data where the students are required to physically interpret the results of their periodgram analysis. Based on the acclaimed and long standing course at the University of Oklahoma and part of the RMetS Advancing Weather and Climate Science Series, this book is distinct in its approach to the subject matter in that it is written specifically for readers in meteorology and climatology and uses a mix of theory and application to real data sets.

The subject of time series is of considerable interest, especially among researchers in econometrics, engineering, and the natural sciences. As part of the prestigious Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics, this book provides a lucid introduction to the field and, in this new Second Edition, covers the important advances of recent years, including nonstationary models, nonlinear estimation, multivariate models, state space representations, and empirical model identification. New sections have also been added on the Wold decomposition, partial autocorrelation, long memory processes, and the Kalman filter. Major topics include: * Moving average and autoregressive processes * Introduction to Fourier analysis * Spectral theory and filtering * Large sample theory * Estimation of the mean and autocorrelations * Estimation of the spectrum * Parameter estimation * Regression, trend, and seasonality * Unit root and explosive time series To accommodate a wide variety of readers, review material, especially on elementary results in Fourier analysis, large sample statistics, and difference equations, has been included.

Praise for the Fourth Edition “The book follows faithfully the style of the original edition. The approach is heavily motivated by real-world time series, and by developing a complete approach to model building, estimation, forecasting and control." – Mathematical Reviews Bridging classical models and modern topics, the Fifth Edition of Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control maintains a balanced presentation of the tools for modeling and analyzing time series. Also describing the latest developments that have occurred in the field over the past decade through applications from areas such as business, finance, and engineering, the Fifth Edition continues to serve as one of the most influential and prominent works on the subject. Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, Fifth Edition provides a clearly written exploration of the key methods for building, classifying, testing, and analyzing stochastic models for time series and describes their use in five important areas of application: forecasting; determining the transfer function of a system; modeling the effects of intervention events; developing multivariate dynamic models; and designing simple control schemes. Along with these classical uses, the new edition covers modern topics with new features that include: A redesigned chapter on multivariate time series analysis with an expanded treatment of Vector Autoregressive, or VAR models, along with a discussion of the analytical tools needed for modeling vector time series An expanded chapter on special topics covering unit root testing, time-varying volatility models such as ARCH and GARCH, nonlinear time series models, and long memory models Numerous examples drawn from finance, economics, engineering, and other related fields The use of the publicly available R software for graphical illustrations and numerical calculations along with scripts that demonstrate the use of R for model building and forecasting Updates to literature references throughout and new end-of-chapter exercises Streamlined chapter introductions and revisions that update and enhance the exposition Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, Fifth Edition is a valuable real-world reference for researchers and practitioners in time series analysis, econometrics, finance, and related fields. The book is also an excellent textbook for beginning graduate-level courses in advanced statistics, mathematics, economics, finance, engineering, and physics.

An essential guide on high dimensional multivariate time series including all the latest topics from one of the leading experts in the field Following the highly successful and much lauded book, Time Series Analysis—Univariate and Multivariate Methods, this new work by William W.S. Wei focuses on high dimensional multivariate time series, and is illustrated with numerous high dimensional empirical time series. Beginning with the fundamentalconcepts and issues of multivariate time series analysis,this book covers many topics that are not found in general multivariate time series books. Some of these are repeated measurements, space-time series modelling, and dimension reduction. The book also looks at vector time series models, multivariate time series regression models, and principle component analysis of multivariate time series. Additionally, it provides readers with information on factor analysis of multivariate time series, multivariate GARCH models, and multivariate spectral analysis of time series. With the development of computers and the internet, we have increased potential for data exploration. In the next few years, dimension will become a more serious problem. Multivariate Time Series Analysis and its Applications provides some initial solutions, which may encourage the development of related software needed for the high dimensional multivariate time series analysis. Written by bestselling author and leading expert in the field Covers topics not yet explored in current multivariate books Features classroom tested material Written specifically for time series courses Multivariate Time Series Analysis and its Applications is designed for an advanced time series analysis course. It is a must-have for anyone studying time series analysis and is also relevant for students in economics, biostatistics, and engineering.

An accessible introduction to real analysis and its connection to elementary calculus Bridging the gap between the development and history of real analysis, Introduction to Real Analysis: An Educational Approach presents a comprehensive introduction to real analysis while also offering a survey of the field. With its balance of historical background, key calculus methods, and hands-on applications, this book provides readers with a solid foundation and fundamental understanding of real analysis. The book begins with an outline of basic calculus, including a close examination of problems illustrating links and potential difficulties. Next, a fluid introduction to real analysis is presented, guiding readers through the basic topology of real numbers, limits, integration, and a series of functions in natural progression. The book moves on to analysis with more rigorous investigations, and the topology of the line is presented along with a discussion of limits and continuity that includes unusual examples in order to direct readers' thinking beyond intuitive reasoning and on to more complex understanding. The dichotomy of pointwise and uniform convergence is then addressed and is followed by differentiation and integration. Riemann-Stieltjes integrals and the Lebesgue measure are also introduced to broaden the presented perspective. The book concludes with a collection of advanced topics that are connected to elementary calculus, such as modeling with logistic functions, numerical quadrature, Fourier series, and special functions. Detailed appendices outline key definitions and theorems in elementary calculus and also present additional proofs, projects, and sets in real analysis. Each chapter references historical sources on real analysis while also providing proof-oriented exercises and examples that facilitate the development of computational skills. In addition, an extensive bibliography provides additional resources on the topic. Introduction to Real Analysis: An Educational Approach is an ideal book for upper- undergraduate and graduate-level real analysis courses in the areas of mathematics and education. It is also a valuable reference for educators in the field of applied mathematics.

A modern and accessible guide to the analysis of introductory time series data Featuring an organized and self-contained guide, Time Series Analysis provides a broad introduction to the most fundamental methodologies and techniques of time series analysis. The book focuses on the treatment of univariate time series by illustrating a number of well-known models such as ARMA and ARIMA. Providing contemporary coverage, the book features several useful and newlydeveloped techniques such as weak and strong dependence, Bayesian methods, non-Gaussian data, local stationarity, missing values and outliers, and threshold models. Time Series Analysis includes practical applications of time series methods throughout, as well as: Real-world examples and exercise sets that allow readers to practice the presented methods and techniques Numerous detailed analyses of computational aspects related to the implementation of methodologies including algorithm efficiency, arithmetic complexity, and process time End-of-chapter proposed problems and bibliographical notes to deepen readers’ knowledge of the presented material Appendices that contain details on fundamental concepts and select solutions of the problems implemented throughout A companion website with additional data fi les and computer codes Time Series Analysis is an excellent textbook for undergraduate and beginning graduate-level courses in time series as well as a supplement for students in advanced statistics, mathematics, economics, finance, engineering, and physics. The book is also a useful reference for researchers and practitioners in time series analysis, econometrics, and finance. Wilfredo Palma, PhD, is Professor of Statistics in the Department of Statistics at Pontificia Universidad Cat?lica de Chile. He has published several refereed articles and has received over a dozen academic honors and awards. His research interests include time series analysis, prediction theory, state space systems, linear models, and econometrics. He is the author of Long-Memory Time Series: Theory and Methods, also published by Wiley.

This book provides a clear and thorough introduction to meta-analysis, the process of synthesizing data from a series of separate studies. Meta-analysis has become a critically important tool in fields as diverse as medicine, pharmacology, epidemiology, education, psychology, business, and ecology. Introduction to Meta-Analysis: Outlines the role of meta-analysis in the research process Shows how to compute effects sizes and treatment effects Explains the fixed-effect and random-effects models for synthesizing data Demonstrates how to assess and interpret variation in effect size across studies Clarifies concepts using text and figures, followed by formulas and examples Explains how to avoid common mistakes in meta-analysis Discusses controversies in meta-analysis Features a web site with additional material and exercises A superb combination of lucid prose and informative graphics, written by four of the world’s leading experts on all aspects of meta-analysis. Borenstein, Hedges, Higgins, and Rothstein provide a refreshing departure from cookbook approaches with their clear explanations of the what and why of meta-analysis. The book is ideal as a course textbook or for self-study. My students, who used pre-publication versions of some of the chapters, raved about the clarity of the explanations and examples. David Rindskopf, Distinguished Professor of Educational Psychology, City University of New York, Graduate School and University Center, & Editor of the Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics. The approach taken by Introduction to Meta-analysis is intended to be primarily conceptual, and it is amazingly successful at achieving that goal. The reader can comfortably skip the formulas and still understand their application and underlying motivation. For the more statistically sophisticated reader, the relevant formulas and worked examples provide a superb practical guide to performing a meta-analysis. The book provides an eclectic mix of examples from education, social science, biomedical studies, and even ecology. For anyone considering leading a course in meta-analysis, or pursuing self-directed study, Introduction to Meta-analysis would be a clear first choice. Jesse A. Berlin, ScD Introduction to Meta-Analysis is an excellent resource for novices and experts alike. The book provides a clear and comprehensive presentation of all basic and most advanced approaches to meta-analysis. This book will be referenced for decades. Michael A. McDaniel, Professor of Human Resources and Organizational Behavior, Virginia Commonwealth University

Praise for the First Edition «. . . outstandingly appealing with regard to its style, contents, considerations of requirements of practice, choice of examples, and exercises.»—Zentralblatt MATH «. . . carefully structured with many detailed worked examples.»—The Mathematical Gazette The Second Edition of the highly regarded An Introduction to Numerical Methods and Analysis provides a fully revised guide to numerical approximation. The book continues to be accessible and expertly guides readers through the many available techniques of numerical methods and analysis. An Introduction to Numerical Methods and Analysis, Second Edition reflects the latest trends in the field, includes new material and revised exercises, and offers a unique emphasis on applications. The author clearly explains how to both construct and evaluate approximations for accuracy and performance, which are key skills in a variety of fields. A wide range of higher-level methods and solutions, including new topics such as the roots of polynomials, spectral collocation, finite element ideas, and Clenshaw-Curtis quadrature, are presented from an introductory perspective, and the Second Edition also features: Chapters and sections that begin with basic, elementary material followed by gradual coverage of more advanced material Exercises ranging from simple hand computations to challenging derivations and minor proofs to programming exercises Widespread exposure and utilization of MATLAB An appendix that contains proofs of various theorems and other material The book is an ideal textbook for students in advanced undergraduate mathematics and engineering courses who are interested in gaining an understanding of numerical methods and numerical analysis.

Introduces the basic concepts of FEM in an easy-to-use format so that students and professionals can use the method efficiently and interpret results properly Finite element method (FEM) is a powerful tool for solving engineering problems both in solid structural mechanics and fluid mechanics. This book presents all of the theoretical aspects of FEM that students of engineering will need. It eliminates overlong math equations in favour of basic concepts, and reviews of the mathematics and mechanics of materials in order to illustrate the concepts of FEM. It introduces these concepts by including examples using six different commercial programs online. The all-new, second edition of Introduction to Finite Element Analysis and Design provides many more exercise problems than the first edition. It includes a significant amount of material in modelling issues by using several practical examples from engineering applications. The book features new coverage of buckling of beams and frames and extends heat transfer analyses from 1D (in the previous edition) to 2D. It also covers 3D solid element and its application, as well as 2D. Additionally, readers will find an increase in coverage of finite element analysis of dynamic problems. There is also a companion website with examples that are concurrent with the most recent version of the commercial programs. Offers elaborate explanations of basic finite element procedures Delivers clear explanations of the capabilities and limitations of finite element analysis Includes application examples and tutorials for commercial finite element software, such as MATLAB, ANSYS, ABAQUS and NASTRAN Provides numerous examples and exercise problems Comes with a complete solution manual and results of several engineering design projects Introduction to Finite Element Analysis and Design, 2nd Edition is an excellent text for junior and senior level undergraduate students and beginning graduate students in mechanical, civil, aerospace, biomedical engineering, industrial engineering and engineering mechanics.