Mechanics and Uncertainty

Optimization is generally a reduction operation of a definite quantity. This process naturally takes place in our environment and through our activities. For example, many natural systems evolve, in order to minimize their potential energy. Modeling these phenomena then largely relies on our capacity to artificially reproduce these processes. In parallel, optimization problems have quickly emerged from human activities, notably from economic concerns. This book includes the most recent ideas coming from research and industry in the field of optimization, reliability and the recognition of accompanying uncertainties. It is made up of eight chapters which look at the reviewing of uncertainty tools, system reliability, optimal design of structures and their optimization (of sizing, form, topology and multi-objectives) – along with their robustness and issues on optimal safety factors. Optimization reliability coupling will also be tackled in order to take into account the uncertainties in the modeling and resolution of the problems encountered. The book is aimed at students, lecturers, engineers, PhD students and researchers. Contents 1. Uncertainty. 2. Reliability in Mechanical Systems. 3. Optimal Structural Design. 4. Multi-object Optimization with Uncertainty. 5. Robust Optimization. 6. Reliability Optimization. 7. Optimal Security Factors Approach. 8. Reliability-based Topology Optimization. About the Authors Abdelkhalak El Hami is Professor at the Institut National des Sciences Appliqu?es, Rouen, France. He is the author of many articles and books on optimization and uncertainty. Bouchaib Radi is Professor in the Faculty of Sciences and Technology at the University of Hassan Premier, Settat, Morocco. His research interests are in such areas as structural optimization, parallel computation, contact problem and metal forming. He is the author of many scientific articles and books.

Deal with information and uncertainty properly and efficiently using tools emerging from generalized information theory Uncertainty and Information: Foundations of Generalized Information Theory contains comprehensive and up-to-date coverage of results that have emerged from a research program begun by the author in the early 1990s under the name «generalized information theory» (GIT). This ongoing research program aims to develop a formal mathematical treatment of the interrelated concepts of uncertainty and information in all their varieties. In GIT, as in classical information theory, uncertainty (predictive, retrodictive, diagnostic, prescriptive, and the like) is viewed as a manifestation of information deficiency, while information is viewed as anything capable of reducing the uncertainty. A broad conceptual framework for GIT is obtained by expanding the formalized language of classical set theory to include more expressive formalized languages based on fuzzy sets of various types, and by expanding classical theory of additive measures to include more expressive non-additive measures of various types. This landmark book examines each of several theories for dealing with particular types of uncertainty at the following four levels: * Mathematical formalization of the conceived type of uncertainty * Calculus for manipulating this particular type of uncertainty * Justifiable ways of measuring the amount of uncertainty in any situation formalizable in the theory * Methodological aspects of the theory With extensive use of examples and illustrations to clarify complex material and demonstrate practical applications, generous historical and bibliographical notes, end-of-chapter exercises to test readers' newfound knowledge, glossaries, and an Instructor's Manual, this is an excellent graduate-level textbook, as well as an outstanding reference for researchers and practitioners who deal with the various problems involving uncertainty and information. An Instructor's Manual presenting detailed solutions to all the problems in the book is available from the Wiley editorial department.

In this entertaining and thoughtful book, Gerald Ashley sets out to explain what trading is, and lays out a modus operandi for being a trader and investor. He draws upon market anecdotes and examples from the past, seeking to debunk many myths surrounding financial markets, and to try and make the reader understand the real processes, risks and rewards that drive investment. In particular he examines ideas in market and individual investor behaviour, and questions the usefulness of many of todays standard investment techniques including benchmarks, charts, analysts and 'gurus'. He also lays out simple precepts for understanding investment risk and suggests ideas for managing your investments in today's markets.

The first part of the book defines the concept of uncertainties and the mathematical frameworks that will be used for uncertainty modeling. The application to system reliability assessment illustrates the concept. In the second part, evidential networks as a new tool to model uncertainty in reliability and risk analysis is proposed and described. Then it is applied on SIS performance assessment and in risk analysis of a heat sink. In the third part, Bayesian and evidential networks are used to deal with important measures evaluation in the context of uncertainties.

Extremism and the Psychology of Uncertainty showcases cutting-edge scientific research on the extent to which uncertainty may lead to extremism. Contributions come from leading international scholars who focus on a wide variety of forms, facets and manifestations of extremist behavior. Systematically integrates and explores the growing diversity of social psychological perspectives on the uncertainty extremism relationship Showcases contemporary cutting edge scientific research from leading international scholars Offers a broad perspective on extremism and focuses on a wide variety of different forms, facets and manifestations Accessible to social and behavioral scientists, policy makers and those with a genuine interest in understanding the psychology of extremism

Written by leading experts in the field, Social Theories of Risk and Uncertainty is an introduction to mainstream theorizing on risk and uncertainty in sociology. Provides an overview of the historical developments and conceptual aspects of risk Identifies why theorizing on risk is necessary and highlights specific sociological contributions to this field of research Explores key topics including risk society and reflexive modernization, culture and risk, governmentality and risk, systems theory and risk, and edgework and voluntary risk taking Offers a comprehensive look at the promises, pitfalls, and perspectives of risk theorizing

Research in nano and cell mechanics has received much attention from the scientific community as a result of society needs and government initiatives to accelerate developments in materials, manufacturing, electronics, medicine and healthcare, energy, and the environment. Engineers and scientists are currently engaging in increasingly complex scientific problems that require interdisciplinary approaches. In this regard, studies in this field draw from fundamentals in atomistic scale phenomena, biology, statistical and continuum mechanics, and multiscale modeling and experimentation. As a result, contributions in these areas are spread over a large number of specialized journals, which prompted the Editors to assemble this book. Nano and Cell Mechanics: Fundamentals and Frontiers brings together many of the new developments in the field for the first time, and covers fundamentals and frontiers in mechanics to accelerate developments in nano- and bio-technologies. Key features: • Provides an overview of recent advances in nano and cell mechanics. • Covers experimental, analytical, and computational tools used to investigate biological and nanoscale phenomena. • Covers fundamentals and frontiers in mechanics to accelerate developments in nano- and bio-technologies. • Presents multiscale-multiphysics modeling and experimentation techniques. • Examines applications in materials, manufacturing, electronics, medicine and healthcare. Nano and Cell Mechanics: Fundamentals and Frontiers is written by internationally recognized experts in theoretical and applied mechanics, applied physics, chemistry, and biology. It is an invaluable reference for graduate students of nano- and bio-technologies, researchers in academia and industry who are working in nano and cell mechanics, and practitioners who are interested in learning about the latest analysis tools. The book can also serve as a text for graduate courses in theoretical and applied mechanics, mechanical engineering, materials science, and applied physics.

Helps engineers and scientists assess and manage uncertainty at all stages of experimentation and validation of simulations Fully updated from its previous edition, Experimentation, Validation, and Uncertainty Analysis for Engineers, Fourth Edition includes expanded coverage and new examples of applying the Monte Carlo Method (MCM) in performing uncertainty analyses. Presenting the current, internationally accepted methodology from ISO, ANSI, and ASME standards for propagating uncertainties using both the MCM and the Taylor Series Method (TSM), it provides a logical approach to experimentation and validation through the application of uncertainty analysis in the planning, design, construction, debugging, execution, data analysis, and reporting phases of experimental and validation programs. It also illustrates how to use a spreadsheet approach to apply the MCM and the TSM, based on the authors’ experience in applying uncertainty analysis in complex, large-scale testing of real engineering systems. Experimentation, Validation, and Uncertainty Analysis for Engineers, Fourth Edition includes examples throughout, contains end of chapter problems, and is accompanied by the authors’ website www.uncertainty-analysis.com. Guides readers through all aspects of experimentation, validation, and uncertainty analysis Emphasizes the use of the Monte Carlo Method in performing uncertainty analysis Includes complete new examples throughout Features workable problems at the end of chapters Experimentation, Validation, and Uncertainty Analysis for Engineers, Fourth Edition is an ideal text and guide for researchers, engineers, and graduate and senior undergraduate students in engineering and science disciplines. Knowledge of the material in this Fourth Edition is a must for those involved in executing or managing experimental programs or validating models and simulations.

Provides a revolutionary conceptual framework and practical tools to quantify uncertainty and recognize the value of flexibility in real estate development This book takes a practical «engineering» approach to the valuation of options and flexibility in real estate. It presents simple simulation models built in universal spreadsheet software such as Microsoft Excel®. These realistically reflect the varying and erratic sources of uncertainty and price dynamics that uniquely characterize real estate. The text covers new analytic procedures that are valuable for existing properties and enable a new, more profitable perspective on the planning, design, operation, and evaluation of large-scale, multi-phase development projects. The book thereby aims to significantly improve valuation and investment decision making. Flexibility and Real Estate Valuation under Uncertainty: A Practical Guide for Developers is presented at 3 levels. First, it introduces and explains the concepts underlying the approach at a basic level accessible to non-technical and non-specialized readers. Its introductory and concluding chapters present the important “big picture” implications of the analysis for economics and valuation and for project design and investment decision making. At a second level, the book presents a framework, a roadmap for the prospective analyst. It describes the practical tools in detail, taking care to go through the elements of the approach step-by-step for clarity and easy reference. The third level includes more technical details and specific models. An Appendix discusses the technical details of real estate price dynamics. Associated web pages provide electronic spreadsheet templates for the models used as examples in the book. Some features of the book include: • Concepts and tools that are simple and accessible to a broad audience of practitioners; • An approach relevant for all development projects; • Complementarity with the author's Commercial Real Estate Analysis & Investments—the most-cited real estate investments textbook on the market. Flexibility and Real Estate Valuation under Uncertainty: A Practical Guide for Developers is for everyone studying or concerned with the implementation of large-scale or multi-phase real estate development projects, as well as property investment and valuation more generally.

Praise for the First Edition «…a reference for everyone who is interested in knowing and handling uncertainty.» —Journal of Applied Statistics The critically acclaimed First Edition of Understanding Uncertainty provided a study of uncertainty addressed to scholars in all fields, showing that uncertainty could be measured by probability, and that probability obeyed three basic rules that enabled uncertainty to be handled sensibly in everyday life. These ideas were extended to embrace the scientific method and to show how decisions, containing an uncertain element, could be rationally made. Featuring new material, the Revised Edition remains the go-to guide for uncertainty and decision making, providing further applications at an accessible level including: A critical study of transitivity, a basic concept in probability A discussion of how the failure of the financial sector to use the proper approach to uncertainty may have contributed to the recent recession A consideration of betting, showing that a bookmaker's odds are not expressions of probability Applications of the book’s thesis to statistics A demonstration that some techniques currently popular in statistics, like significance tests, may be unsound, even seriously misleading, because they violate the rules of probability Understanding Uncertainty, Revised Edition is ideal for students studying probability or statistics and for anyone interested in one of the most fascinating and vibrant fields of study in contemporary science and mathematics.