Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment

Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients--or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants--or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical.In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions.Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment--and what we can do about it.

Один из 676-ти правосудных приговоров написан судьёй Владимиром Арсентьевым короткой ночью при свечах в далёком северном посёлке Восточной Сибири на рубеже веков и спустя 20 лет, пока цвела весна 2020 года, родилась эта книга. Исходя из своих дел, автор свидетельствует о праве человека быть не средством, а целью существования и деятельности государства, в котором идеалы свободы, равенства, справедливости составляют высшие принципы осуществления уголовного правосудия и обеспечивают спокойствие правового состояния гражданского общества, определяя всё наше поведение.

Один из 676-ти правосудных приговоров написан судьёй Владимиром Арсентьевым короткой ночью при свечах в далёком северном посёлке Восточной Сибири на рубеже веков и спустя 20 лет, пока цвела весна 2020 года, родилась эта книга. Исходя из своих дел, автор свидетельствует о праве человека быть не средством, а целью существования и деятельности государства, в котором идеалы свободы, равенства, справедливости составляют высшие принципы осуществления уголовного правосудия и обеспечивают спокойствие правового состояния гражданского общества, определяя всё наше поведение.

A must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a major financial impact. As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we base our personal and business plans on uncertainties, whether they be next month’s sales, next year’s costs, or tomorrow’s stock price. In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savage­known for his creative exposition of difficult subjects­ describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. Along the way, he shows why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as healthcare, accounting, the War on Terror, and climate change. In his chapter on Sex and the Central Limit Theorem, he bravely grasps the literary third rail of gender differences. Instead of statistical jargon, Savage presents complex concepts in plain English. In addition, a tightly integrated web site contains numerous animations and simulations to further connect the seat of the reader’s intellect to the seat of their pants. The Flaw of Averages typically results when someone plugs a single number into a spreadsheet to represent an uncertain future quantity. Savage finishes the book with a discussion of the emerging field of Probability Management, which cures this problem though a new technology that can pack thousands of numbers into a single spreadsheet cell. Praise for The Flaw of Averages “Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam Savage’s lively and engaging book gives any interested reader the insight and the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages.” —William J. Perry, Former U.S. Secretary of Defense “Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been an academic ideal. . . . In this profound and entertaining book, Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical, practicable, and comprehensible.” —­Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics

A cutting-edge examination of what it means to be human and to have a 'self' in the face of new scientific developments in genetic editing, cloning and neural downloading.After seeing his own cells used to grow clumps of new neurons – essentially mini-brains – Philip Ball begins to examine the concepts of identity and consciousness. Delving into humanity's deep evolutionary past to look at how complex creatures like us emerged from single-celled life, he offers a new perspective on how humans think about ourselves.In an age when we are increasingly encouraged to regard the 'self' as an abstract sequence of genetic information, or as a pattern of neural activity that might be 'downloaded' to a computer, he return us to the body – to flesh and blood – and anchors a conception of personhood in this unique and ephemeral mortal coil. How to Build a Human brings us back to ourselves – but in doing so, it challenges old preconceptions and values. It asks us to rethink how we exist in the world.

Der Energie-Erfolgstherapeut der ?SV-Sportler! Dieses Buch richtet sich an alle, die bereit sind, ihre Gesundheit eigenverantwortlich in die Hand zu nehmen und Neues zuzulassen. Konkret, mit Kompetenz und vielen praktischen Beispielen aus seiner langj?hrigen Erfahrung als Energetiker, Querdenker, Vision?r und Energietherapeut von ?sterreichs besten Sportlern wie Felix Gottwald, Michael Walchhofer, Hermann Maier, Rainer Sch?nfelder, Michael Gruber, Andreas Schifferer, Michi Dorfmeister, Gitti Obermoser und vielen anderen bringt Martin Weber in diesem Buch die Leserinnen und Leser einen Schritt n?her zum Verstehen der wahren Mechanismen, die in jedem Menschen wirken. Martin Weber kann im Verlaufe seiner T?tigkeit bereits auf spektakul?re Heilerfolge zur?ckblicken, die zu einem gro?en Teil dokumentiert sind und auch in den Medien f?r gro?e Resonanz gesorgt haben. Die schnelle Heilung von Knochenbr?chen, Sehnenrissen und anderen Verletzungen macht ihn nicht nur bei Spitzensportlern zu einem gefragten Therapeuten. Nun gibt Martin Weber sein Wissen erstmals in Buchform an Menschen weiter, die an wirklicher Heilung – nicht Symptombek?mpfung – interessiert sind. Er zeigt auf, dass Medikamente niemals zu wirklicher Heilung f?hren und dass vor allem nach Verletzungen oder Operationen der K?rper wie ein sensibles Musikinstrument neu gestimmt werden muss.

Her dream home will become her worst nightmare…A USA Today and Sunday Times top ten bestseller. This is the dark and twisty psychological thriller from the No.1 ebook bestselling author of The Woman Next Door.A strange encounter Neve comes across a troubled woman called Isabelle on Waterloo Bridge late one night. Isabelle forces a parcel into Neve’s hands and jumps to her death in the icy Thames below.An unexpected gift Two weeks later, as Neve’s wreck of a life in London collapses, an unexpected lifeline falls into her lap – a charming cottage in Cornwall left to her by Isabelle, the woman on the bridge. The solution to all her problems.A twisted secret But when Neve arrives, alone in the dark woods late one night, she finds a sinister-looking bungalow with bars across its windows. And her dream home quickly becomes her worst nightmare – a house hiding a twisted secret that will change her life forever…

Cut through the mental noise of modern life and move one step closer to true happiness The quest for perfection and the sheer volume of “noise” and guilt in modern life can be crushing on even the most put-together person. With Cut the Noise, author and popular keynote speaker Chris Helder will show you how to cut through the noise, release yourself from guilt and stop seeking perfection so that you can focus on what you really want and what really matters. Told through two fables, you'll learn how to cut out the things in your life that are not useful, deal with the obstacles that get in your way, prioritise what is really important and give yourself permission to make the most of every situation with less guilt. See the world in a new way and move closer to what you really want by embracing the book’s accessible principles Move beyond guilt by learning key concepts, including that most of what we worry about will never happen Clearly find out what is preventing your success so you can deal with it and focus on the things that truly matter Follow the book’s easy-to-read fable format and discover where to take your life from here For those who want to take back their lives from the constant noise and expectations of modern life, Cut the Noise is the important first step on the journey.