The Business Forecasting Deal. Exposing Myths, Eliminating Bad Practices, Providing Practical Solutions

A comprehensive collection of the field's most provocative, influential new work Business Forecasting compiles some of the field's important and influential literature into a single, comprehensive reference for forecast modeling and process improvement. It is packed with provocative ideas from forecasting researchers and practitioners, on topics including accuracy metrics, benchmarking, modeling of problem data, and overcoming dysfunctional behaviors. Its coverage includes often-overlooked issues at the forefront of research, such as uncertainty, randomness, and forecastability, as well as emerging areas like data mining for forecasting. The articles present critical analysis of current practices and consideration of new ideas. With a mix of formal, rigorous pieces and brief introductory chapters, the book provides practitioners with a comprehensive examination of the current state of the business forecasting field. Forecasting performance is ultimately limited by the 'forecastability' of the data. Yet failing to recognize this, many organizations continue to squander resources pursuing unachievable levels of accuracy. This book provides a wealth of ideas for improving all aspects of the process, including the avoidance of wasted efforts that fail to improve (or even harm) forecast accuracy. Analyzes the most prominent issues in business forecasting Investigates emerging approaches and new methods of analysis Combines forecasts to improve accuracy Utilizes Forecast Value Added to identify process inefficiency The business environment is evolving, and forecasting methods must evolve alongside it. This compilation delivers an array of new tools and research that can enable more efficient processes and more accurate results. Business Forecasting provides an expert's-eye view of the field's latest developments to help you achieve your desired business outcomes.

Has the greenback really lost its preeminent place in the world? Not according to currency expert Marc Chandler, who explains why so many are—wrongly—pessimistic about both the dollar and the U.S. economy. Making Sense of the Dollar explores the many factors—trade deficits, the dollar’s role in the world, globalization, capitalism, and more—that affect the dollar and the U.S. economy and lead to the inescapable conclusion that both are much stronger than many people suppose. Marc Chandler has been covering the global capital markets for twenty years as a foreign exchange strategist for several Wall Street firms. He is one of the most widely respected and quoted currency experts today.

The recent crisis in the financial markets has exposed serious flaws in management methods. The failure to anticipate and deal with the consequences of the unfolding collapse has starkly illustrated what many leaders and managers in business have known for years; in most organizations, the process of forecasting is badly broken. For that reason, forecasting business performance tops the list of concerns for CFO's across the globe. It is time to rethink the way businesses organize and run forecasting processes and how they use the insights that they provide to navigate through these turbulent times. This book synthesizes and structures findings from a range of disciplines and over 60 years of the authors combined practical experience. This is presented in the form of a set of simple strategies that any organization can use to master the process of forecasting. The key message of this book is that while no mortal can predict the future, you can take the steps to be ready for it. ’Good enough’ forecasts, wise preparation and the capability to take timely action, will help your organization to create its own future. Written in an engaging and thought provoking style, Future Ready leads the reader to answers to questions such as: What makes a good forecast? What period should a forecast cover? How frequently should it be updated? What information should it contain? What is the best way to produce a forecast? How can you avoid gaming and other forms of data manipulation? How should a forecast be used? How do you ensure that your forecast is reliable? How accurate does it need to be? How should you deal with risk and uncertainty What is the best way to organize a forecast process? Do you need multiple forecasts? What changes should be made to other performance management processes to facilitate good forecasting? Future Ready is an invaluable guide for practicing managers and a source of insight and inspiration to leaders looking for better ways of doing things and to students of the science and craft of management. Praise for Future Ready «Will make a difference to the way you think about forecasting going forward» —Howard Green, Group Controller Unilever PLC «Great analogies and stories are combined with rock solid theory in a language that even the most reading-averse manager will love from page one» —Bjarte Bogsnes, Vice President Performance Management Development at StatoilHydro «A timely addition to the growing research on management planning and performance measurement.» —Dr. Charles T. Horngren, Edmund G. Littlefield Professor of Accounting Emeritus Stanford University and author of many standard texts including Cost Accounting: A Managerial Emphasis, Introduction to Management Accounting, and Financial Accounting «In the area of Forecasting, it is the best book in the market.» —Fritz Roemer. Leader of Enterprise Performance Executive Advisory Program, the Hackett Group

Go Beyond «Business As Usual» with Your Nonprofit "At last–the 'real truth' about nonprofit management! In Exposing the Elephants, Wilcox reveals the 'pesky pachyderms' that block our way to full effectiveness. How often have we grumbled that 'just because you're a [insert profession here], it doesn't mean you know how to run a nonprofit'? With clarity, passion, and sly humor, Wilcox validates that perspective and many others–but doesn't let us get away with just accepting the presence of the elephant in the room. Wilcox summarizes complex issues using recognizable examples and then offers sensible strategies for resolving them. Ultimately, she gives us permission to do the right thing(s). I love this book–and I can't wait to start implementing the 'elephant solutions'! " –Nancy Perkin Beaumont, CAE, Executive Director, Society of American Archivists «Before I finished reading Exposing the Elephants, I met with my key staff to talk about what we must change. I also shared what I learned from reading the book with a friend who sits on several different types of boards. Wilcox says it like it is–and it needs to be said–in every nonprofit organization.» –Julie Donovan, Executive Director, Habitat for Humanity, Lake County, Illinois «A remarkably candid, fresh, and witty analysis of the challenges inherent in managing nonprofits. Insightful and pragmatic solutions to overcoming the 'white elephants' so prevalent in the nonprofit culture. A 'must read' for every nonprofit CEO and board member.» –Dick Yingst, President & CEO, Financial Managers Society, Chicago, Illinois «Pam Wilcox is willing to say the things that nonprofit professionals often do not wish to hear. She reveals through clear language and flowing style the significant barriers that nonprofits face and need to remove for not just success but also excellence. Unlike many authors who point out what is wrong with nonprofits, Wilcox shows us the way to tackle our most intractable issues and move to excellence. This book should be read by any and everyone involved in the nonprofit sector.» –Katrina S. Rogers, PhD, Associate Dean, Research and Practice Director, Center for Innovation in the Nonprofit Sector, Fielding Graduate University

Everyone in the fashion business needs to develop an essential survival skill: how to interpret the intelligence provided by the fashion forecasting industry, to anticipate and respond to emerging trends. Lavishly illustrated in full colour throughout, with clear and relevant explanations of the processes involved, Fashion Forecasting is for fashion students and young professionals who already have acquired some fashion knowledge and skills. The authors interviewed the key players within this exciting industry and provide here fascinating insights into the dynamic contemporary fashion forecasting world and the varied creative roles within it – from intelligence gatherers to project consultants. The book covers how a trend is sourced, anticipated and developed, and also explores the interaction with marketing and brand development.

Establish credibility as the new family business leader Myths & Mortals, Family Business Leadership and Succession Planning provides insights and strategies for successors of family businesses. Successors often find themselves in the shadow of their parents making it difficult to establish credibility in the family business and tap into their own strengths. The stress of emulating a parent begins to clash with who they are and who they want to be as a leader. Written by internationally known business strategist and succession planning expert Andrew Keyt, this guide shows you how to establish credibility, take your place at the head of the table, and run your business your way. In groundbreaking research, Keyt interviewed more than 25 successors of family business legends including Massimo Ferragamo, Bill Wrigley Jr., Christie Hefner, and John Tyson to find out how they overcame the challenges successors commonly face.The analysis from that study formed the basis for the strategies presented here—to help you win the loyalty of those stuck in the old way of doing business, and still focused on their former leader's vision. You'll learn how to take charge without sacrificing your own leadership style, and how to get everyone on board with your vision for the business. Growing up in the shadow of legendary family business leaders creates a unique challenge for successors to the leadership position. You cannot remove the emotional power of family dynamics from the business, but you can change how you choose to react to it. To be successful, you need to create a sense of identity and credibility, and step out of the shadows of your forbears. This guide provides strategies for doing just that, so you can take the reins and be the effective leader your business needs. Overcome the obstacles successors commonly face Win over those still loyal to their former leader Build your own credibility, separate from your parents Develop your own leadership style and do business your way Credibility is elemental to business leadership, but establishing that credibility is the successor's biggest challenge. Myths & Mortals, Family Business Leadership and Succession Planning helps you plan around the obstacles and avoid common missteps so you can lead more effectively right out of the gate.

Hackers have uncovered the dark side of cryptography—that device developed to defeat Trojan horses, viruses, password theft, and other cyber-crime. It’s called cryptovirology, the art of turning the very methods designed to protect your data into a means of subverting it. In this fascinating, disturbing volume, the experts who first identified cryptovirology show you exactly what you’re up against and how to fight back. They will take you inside the brilliant and devious mind of a hacker—as much an addict as the vacant-eyed denizen of the crackhouse—so you can feel the rush and recognize your opponent’s power. Then, they will arm you for the counterattack. This book reads like a futuristic fantasy, but be assured, the threat is ominously real. Vigilance is essential, now. Understand the mechanics of computationally secure information stealing Learn how non-zero sum Game Theory is used to develop survivable malware Discover how hackers use public key cryptography to mount extortion attacks Recognize and combat the danger of kleptographic attacks on smart-card devices Build a strong arsenal against a cryptovirology attack

A comprehensive introduction to today's M&A strategies Make the Deal is a direct and accessible guide to striking a powerful M&A deal. Merging business, finance, and law, this insightful examination of M&A strategy is designed to help you understand M&A negotiations and the ways in which the final outcome affects your financial future. A general overview of an acquisition agreement framework segues into a more detailed discussion of different deal structures, including stock sales, mergers, asset sales, and complex structures, giving you the information you need to know when each one applies best in practice. You'll gain insight into real-world negotiations and the delicate balancing act that occurs as each party attempts to maximize value and minimize risk, and learn the potential pitfalls that can occur. Negotiation statistics and samples from actual contracts back the war stories throughout, and reinforce the idea that there's no single perfect solution. As a topic of study, M&A is constantly evolving; in practice, it changes at the speed of light. Staying ahead of the market is the single most critical element of making the best deal, and the strategy that worked for one deal most likely won't work for the next. Instead of simply providing a list of strategies that have worked in the past, this book shows you why they worked, so you can tailor your strategy specifically to your next deal. Learn how M&A contract terms affect economic outcomes Examine the techniques and mechanics of today's acquisition agreements Develop a legal framework that supports your business strategy Follow the ups and downs that arise in real-world cases A successful M&A transaction requires both attention to detail and a big picture view, combined with skill, intellect, and ingenuity. Make the Deal brings it all together to show you how to run the table and come away with a win.

Foreword by James D. Ratley, CFE, President and CEO, Association of Certified Fraud Examiners Beyond the basics—tools for applied fraud management In Exposing Fraud: Skills, Process, and Practicalities, anti-fraud expert Ian Ross provides both ideas and practical guidelines for applying sound techniques for fraud investigation and detection and related project management. The investigative principles in this book are truly universal and can be applied anywhere in the world to deal with any of the range of fraud types prevalent in today's business environments. Topics covered include cyber fraud, the psychology of fraud, data analysis techniques, and the role of corporate and international culture in criminal behavior, among many others. Ensure an optimal outcome to fraud investigations by mastering real-world skills, from interviewing and handling evidence to conducting criminal proceedings. As technologies and fraud techniques become more complex, fraud investigation must increase in complexity as well. However, this does not mean that time-tested strategies for detecting criminals have become obsolete. Instead, it means that a hands-on approach to fraud detection and management is needed more than ever. The book does just that: Takes a unique practical approach to the business of detecting, understanding, and dealing with fraud of all types Aids in the development of key skills, including conducting investigations and managing fraud risk Covers issues related to ethically and efficiently handling impulsive and systemic fraud, plus investigating criminals who may be running multiple scams Addresses fraud from a global perspective, considering cultural and psychological factors that influence fraudsters Unlike other fraud investigation books on the market, Exposing Fraud develops the ethical and legal foundation required to apply theory and advice in real-world settings. From the simple to the complex, this book demonstrates the most effective application of anti-fraud techniques.

Excel at predicting sales and forecasting trends using Microsoft Excel! If you're a sales or marketing professional, you know that forecasting sales is one of the biggest challenges you face on the job. Unlike other books on the subject, Excel Sales Forecasting For Dummies, 2nd Edition leaves arcane business school terms and complex algebraic equations at the door, focusing instead on what you can do right now to utilize the world's most popular spreadsheet program to produce forecasts you can rely on. Loaded with confidence boosters for anyone who succumbs to sweaty palms when sales predictions are mentioned, this trusted guide show you how to use the many tools Excel provides to arrange your past data, set up lists and pivot tables, use moving averages, and so much more. Before you know it, you'll become a forecaster par excellence—even if numbers aren't your jam. Choose the right forecasting method Find relationships in your data Predict seasonal sales Filter lists or turn them into charts Consider this guide your crystal ball—and start predicting the future with confidence and ease!