Trade Your Way to Wealth. Earn Big Profits with No-Risk, Low-Risk, and Measured-Risk Strategies

The dramatic and well chronicled crisis of 2007/8 marked a watershed moment for all stakeholders in global capital markets. In the aftermath, financial markets have become even more tightly coupled as correlations in returns across multiple asset classes have been at historically elevated levels. Investors and fund managers are, to a much larger degree than previously and often much more than they realize, subject to the risk of severe wealth destruction. The ultimate hazard, which is not adequately characterized by the widely touted notion of tail risk, is the systemic risk which arises when liquidity in markets completely evaporates. Not only did this happen in the second half of 2008, but it has been repeated episodically since then – most notably in May 2010, in an incident known as the Flash Crash, and in the fall of 2011 when correlations were at historically elevated levels. Conventional asset allocation tools and techniques have failed to keep apace with the changing financial landscape which has emerged since 2008. In addition to the preponderance of algorithmic trading and the associated changes in the liquidity characteristics of financial markets, a new paradigm of risk on/risk off asset allocation has emerged. Risk on/risk off is a widely adopted style of trading and macro allocation strategy where positions are taken in several closely aligned asset classes depending on the prevailing sentiment or appetite for risk. The consequences of the day to day (and intraday) switching between either a risk on or risk off tactical strategies poses significant new challenges to investors who are still making investment decisions with outmoded notions from traditional asset allocation theory. How can one cushion the impact of systemically threatening events when the ability to exit financial instruments becomes almost non existent? How can one trust the integrity of financial models and orthodox macro financial theory which have become increasingly discredited? Can central bankers be relied upon to become the counter-parties of last resort and provide a safety net under the financial system? These vital questions, and many others, need to be addressed by everyone who has a stake in modern financial markets, and they are addressed in Systemic Liquidity Risk and Bipolar Markets. Proper functioning markets require fractiousness or divided opinion, and this needs to be lubricated by communications from central bankers, economic forecasters, corporate executives and so on. As long as such messages and market conditions remain ambiguous, providing asymmetric information to different market players, then the conditions are present to enable systemic liquidity to be preserved. Seen in this context the prevailing paradigm of bipolar risk on/risk off asset allocations is both a prerequisite to liquid markets, and also paradoxically, when one side of the polarity becomes too extreme, a major source of systemic instability. Should such polarities become critically unbalanced, and should the signals received by market players become symmetrically disadvantageous as they were in the fall of 2008, then an even more substantial systemic liquidity crisis than that seen in those troubled times is a dangerous possibility. Apart from the practical risk management tools and tactics that are recommended in Systemic Liquidity Risk and Bipolar Markets, there is a provocative and cogent narrative to provide anxious and perplexed investors with a coherent explanation of the post GFC financial environment, and which should assist them in navigating the choppy waters ahead.

User-friendly risk management tools, tips, and techniques for a less certain world Though a very high level of investor uncertainty, anxiety, and concern about risk now exists, the vast majority of investors do not genuinely understand investment risk-let alone how to effectively manage it. The «Risk-Wise» Investor offers a totally new, user-friendly, non-technical way to help you better understand and manage uncertainty and risk. This practical guide will help investors avoid many common pitfalls and make well informed, knowledge-based decisions when facing uncertainty and risk. It also shows how to implement a personalized, systematic risk management planning process that will allow you to manage the risks you face more effectively and improve the likelihood of achieving specific investment goals. Though traditional investment advice is based on taking the long view and diversifying portfolios, the information here shows how to incorporate additional risk management considerations into your plans. It also provides innovative insights that will help investors and their advisors better understand how to Gain a practical, user-friendly, knowledge based understanding of risk and risk management Better understand and manage financial uncertainty and rapid change Release life-risk management skills in the world of investments Become less anxious, more knowledgeable, realistic, and potentially more successful investors Learn a new «empowering» definition of risk to more effectively address risk and uncertainty Help reduce the likelihood and potential impact of negative surprises

State of the art risk management techniques and practices—supplemented with interactive analytics All too often risk management books focus on risk measurement details without taking a broader view. Quantitative Risk Management delivers a synthesis of common sense management together with the cutting-edge tools of modern theory. This book presents a road map for tactical and strategic decision making designed to control risk and capitalize on opportunities. Most provocatively it challenges the conventional wisdom that «risk management» is or ever should be delegated to a separate department. Good managers have always known that managing risk is central to a financial firm and must be the responsibility of anyone who contributes to the profit of the firm. A guide to risk management for financial firms and managers in the post-crisis world, Quantitative Risk Management updates the techniques and tools used to measure and monitor risk. These are often mathematical and specialized, but the ideas are simple. The book starts with how we think about risk and uncertainty, then turns to a practical explanation of how risk is measured in today's complex financial markets. Covers everything from risk measures, probability, and regulatory issues to portfolio risk analytics and reporting Includes interactive graphs and computer code for portfolio risk and analytics Explains why tactical and strategic decisions must be made at every level of the firm and portfolio Providing the models, tools, and techniques firms need to build the best risk management practices, Quantitative Risk Management is an essential volume from an experienced manager and quantitative analyst.

This book gives a comprehensive yet easily accessible introduction to risk and uncertainty as they have been analysed in sociology and related social sciences. The book draws extensively on the wide array of contemporary social theories of risk and relates these to the many and diverse areas in contemporary society where risk plays an important role. It will be an invaluable for both students and researchers interested in risk in relation to politics, the environment, health, media, science and technology and finance. Written in a clear and accessible language, the book gives a balanced account of the many theoretical approaches taken to the diverse phenomenon of risk, using concrete examples to illustrate abstract points. The book highlights some key themes such as uncertainty and individual responsibility which emerge as common to different theories and fields of study. The book is perfectly suited as an introduction for new students in sociology, political science, anthropology, media studies and health studies.

Gain a deeper understanding of the issues surrounding financial risk and regulation Foundations of Financial Risk details the various risks, regulations, and supervisory requirements institutions face in today's economic and regulatory environment. Written by the experts at the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP), this book represents an update to GARP's original publication, Foundations of Banking Risk. You'll learn the terminology and basic concepts surrounding global financial risk and regulation, and develop an understanding of the methods used to measure and manage market, credit, and operational risk. Coverage includes traded market risk and regulation, treasury risk and regulation, and much more, including brand new coverage of risk management for insurance companies. Clear explanations, focused discussion, and comprehensive relevancy make this book an ideal resource for an introduction to risk management. The textbook provides an understanding of risk management methodologies, governance structures for risk management in financial institutions and the regulatory requirements dictated by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. It provides thorough coverage of the issues surrounding financial risk, giving you a solid knowledgebase and a practical, applicable understanding. Understand risk measurement and management Learn how minimum capital requirements are regulated Explore all aspects of financial institution regulation and disclosure Master the terminology of global risk and regulation Financial institutions and supervisors around the world are increasingly recognizing how vital sound risk management practices are to both individual firms and the capital markets system as a whole. Savvy professionals recognize the need for authoritative and comprehensive training, and Foundations of Financial Risk delivers with expert-led education for those new to risk management.

PRAISE FOR BONDS FOR CANADIANS «Andrew Allentuck is one of the premiere financial journalist covering fixed income markets from a uniquely Canadian perspective. His knowledge of the bond market is second to none.» –Randy LeClair, CFA, Vice-President & Portfolio Manager, AIC Investment Services Inc. «Andrew Allentuck's new book explains the complexities of the bond market to Canadians in an engrossing and deliciously entertaining manner. Superbly written, Bonds for Canadians is both a blueprint for financial prosperity as well as a delightful and often humorous look at the most misunderstood and idiosyncratic of markets. I wish this book had been around 26 years ago when I began my career.» –Tom Czitron, CFA, Managing Director, Head of Bonds and Fixed Income, Sceptre Investment Counsel Ltd. «Canadian retail investors are largely in the dark on how bonds work or how to incorporate them into their investment strategy…That is, until now. Deconstructing what is often considered the most cerebral of financial markets, Mr. Allentuck provides an engaging, entertaining and anecdoteladen account of what boods are, how they work and why they matter more now than ever. This is the sort of book that every serious retail investor should carry around, dog-eared and rolled, in his back pocket.» –Martin Cej, Investment Editor, The Globe and Mail «Bonds for Canadians shows how to escape the roller-coaster of risks of the stock market while generating a tidy fortune for retirement. It's an important contribution to financial planning.» –Daniel F. Stonach, Registered Financial Planner, President, Stronach Financial Group Inc.

The non-technical handbook for cyber security risk management Solving Cyber Risk distills a decade of research into a practical framework for cyber security. Blending statistical data and cost information with research into the culture, psychology, and business models of the hacker community, this book provides business executives, policy-makers, and individuals with a deeper understanding of existing future threats, and an action plan for safeguarding their organizations. Key Risk Indicators reveal vulnerabilities based on organization type, IT infrastructure and existing security measures, while expert discussion from leading cyber risk specialists details practical, real-world methods of risk reduction and mitigation. By the nature of the business, your organization’s customer database is packed with highly sensitive information that is essentially hacker-bait, and even a minor flaw in security protocol could spell disaster. This book takes you deep into the cyber threat landscape to show you how to keep your data secure. Understand who is carrying out cyber-attacks, and why Identify your organization’s risk of attack and vulnerability to damage Learn the most cost-effective risk reduction measures Adopt a new cyber risk assessment and quantification framework based on techniques used by the insurance industry By applying risk management principles to cyber security, non-technical leadership gains a greater understanding of the types of threat, level of threat, and level of investment needed to fortify the organization against attack. Just because you have not been hit does not mean your data is safe, and hackers rely on their targets’ complacence to help maximize their haul. Solving Cyber Risk gives you a concrete action plan for implementing top-notch preventative measures before you’re forced to implement damage control.

A risk measurement and management framework that takes model risk seriously Most financial risk models assume the future will look like the past, but effective risk management depends on identifying fundamental changes in the marketplace as they occur. Bayesian Risk Management details a more flexible approach to risk management, and provides tools to measure financial risk in a dynamic market environment. This book opens discussion about uncertainty in model parameters, model specifications, and model-driven forecasts in a way that standard statistical risk measurement does not. And unlike current machine learning-based methods, the framework presented here allows you to measure risk in a fully-Bayesian setting without losing the structure afforded by parametric risk and asset-pricing models. Recognize the assumptions embodied in classical statistics Quantify model risk along multiple dimensions without backtesting Model time series without assuming stationarity Estimate state-space time series models online with simulation methods Uncover uncertainty in workhorse risk and asset-pricing models Embed Bayesian thinking about risk within a complex organization Ignoring uncertainty in risk modeling creates an illusion of mastery and fosters erroneous decision-making. Firms who ignore the many dimensions of model risk measure too little risk, and end up taking on too much. Bayesian Risk Management provides a roadmap to better risk management through more circumspect measurement, with comprehensive treatment of model uncertainty.

Risk Analysis, Second Edition Terje Aven, University of Stavanger, Norway A practical guide to the varied challenges presented in the ever-growing field of risk analysis. Risk Analysis presents an accessible and concise guide to performing risk analysis, in a wide variety of field, with minimal prior knowledge required. Forming an ideal companion volume to Aven's previous Wiley text Foundations of Risk Analysis, it provides clear recommendations and guidance in the planning, execution anduse of risk analysis. This new edition presents recent developments related to risk conceptualization, focusing on related issues on risk assessment and their application. New examples are also featured to clarify the reader's understanding in the application of risk analysis and the risk analysis process. Key features: Fully updated to include recent developments related to risk conceptualization and related issues on risk assessments and their applications. Emphasizes the decision making context of risk analysis rather than just computing probabilities Demonstrates how to carry out predictive risk analysis using a variety of case studies and examples. Written by an experienced expert in the field, in a style suitable for both industrial and academic audiences. This book is ideal for advanced undergraduates, graduates, analysts and researchers from statistics, engineering, finance, medicine and physical sciences. Managers facing decision making problems involving risk and uncertainty will also benefit from this book.

Written by a group of academics and practitioners, this guide is for construction practitioners having to manage real projects. It shows how the risk management process improves decision making in conditions of uncertainty. This new edition includes the input of the Turnbull report, as well as to introduce the concept of corporate, strategic business, and project level risk. The authors cover: a description of risk management and decision making in the context of a construction project the human dimension tools and techniques available to the risk analyst the problems of procurement and finance the practical application of risk analysis, including the principles of risk modelling and simulation, together wit case studies A thorough understanding of these concepts will provide the project manager with the basis for effective decision making. From the reviews of the first edition: «This book should be compulsory reading for all concerned with the management of risk in construction – whether academics or practitioners.» —Chartered Surveyor Monthly «A valuable addition to the literature … which helps condense, simplify and provide practical advice on how to implement risk management on construction projects.»