Understanding Systemic Risk in Global Financial Markets

The dramatic and well chronicled crisis of 2007/8 marked a watershed moment for all stakeholders in global capital markets. In the aftermath, financial markets have become even more tightly coupled as correlations in returns across multiple asset classes have been at historically elevated levels. Investors and fund managers are, to a much larger degree than previously and often much more than they realize, subject to the risk of severe wealth destruction. The ultimate hazard, which is not adequately characterized by the widely touted notion of tail risk, is the systemic risk which arises when liquidity in markets completely evaporates. Not only did this happen in the second half of 2008, but it has been repeated episodically since then – most notably in May 2010, in an incident known as the Flash Crash, and in the fall of 2011 when correlations were at historically elevated levels. Conventional asset allocation tools and techniques have failed to keep apace with the changing financial landscape which has emerged since 2008. In addition to the preponderance of algorithmic trading and the associated changes in the liquidity characteristics of financial markets, a new paradigm of risk on/risk off asset allocation has emerged. Risk on/risk off is a widely adopted style of trading and macro allocation strategy where positions are taken in several closely aligned asset classes depending on the prevailing sentiment or appetite for risk. The consequences of the day to day (and intraday) switching between either a risk on or risk off tactical strategies poses significant new challenges to investors who are still making investment decisions with outmoded notions from traditional asset allocation theory. How can one cushion the impact of systemically threatening events when the ability to exit financial instruments becomes almost non existent? How can one trust the integrity of financial models and orthodox macro financial theory which have become increasingly discredited? Can central bankers be relied upon to become the counter-parties of last resort and provide a safety net under the financial system? These vital questions, and many others, need to be addressed by everyone who has a stake in modern financial markets, and they are addressed in Systemic Liquidity Risk and Bipolar Markets. Proper functioning markets require fractiousness or divided opinion, and this needs to be lubricated by communications from central bankers, economic forecasters, corporate executives and so on. As long as such messages and market conditions remain ambiguous, providing asymmetric information to different market players, then the conditions are present to enable systemic liquidity to be preserved. Seen in this context the prevailing paradigm of bipolar risk on/risk off asset allocations is both a prerequisite to liquid markets, and also paradoxically, when one side of the polarity becomes too extreme, a major source of systemic instability. Should such polarities become critically unbalanced, and should the signals received by market players become symmetrically disadvantageous as they were in the fall of 2008, then an even more substantial systemic liquidity crisis than that seen in those troubled times is a dangerous possibility. Apart from the practical risk management tools and tactics that are recommended in Systemic Liquidity Risk and Bipolar Markets, there is a provocative and cogent narrative to provide anxious and perplexed investors with a coherent explanation of the post GFC financial environment, and which should assist them in navigating the choppy waters ahead.

A risk measurement and management framework that takes model risk seriously Most financial risk models assume the future will look like the past, but effective risk management depends on identifying fundamental changes in the marketplace as they occur. Bayesian Risk Management details a more flexible approach to risk management, and provides tools to measure financial risk in a dynamic market environment. This book opens discussion about uncertainty in model parameters, model specifications, and model-driven forecasts in a way that standard statistical risk measurement does not. And unlike current machine learning-based methods, the framework presented here allows you to measure risk in a fully-Bayesian setting without losing the structure afforded by parametric risk and asset-pricing models. Recognize the assumptions embodied in classical statistics Quantify model risk along multiple dimensions without backtesting Model time series without assuming stationarity Estimate state-space time series models online with simulation methods Uncover uncertainty in workhorse risk and asset-pricing models Embed Bayesian thinking about risk within a complex organization Ignoring uncertainty in risk modeling creates an illusion of mastery and fosters erroneous decision-making. Firms who ignore the many dimensions of model risk measure too little risk, and end up taking on too much. Bayesian Risk Management provides a roadmap to better risk management through more circumspect measurement, with comprehensive treatment of model uncertainty.

Applied C# in Financial Markets covers all the aspects of C# relevant to practitioners working in financial sector. It contains a practical workshop which builds on the material in the book, guiding you through all the stages of building a multiple model options calculator. An accompanying website features examples, illustrations and solutions to the workshops and a downloadable application to complement the book. Features examples and illustrations taken from a sample trading application, making the book relevant to those working in the financial markets. Provides a quick start to C# for financial professionals to hit the ground running in building financial applications. Workshops illustrate building an options calculator, exploring the various elements in C# as they progress.

A whole is worth the sum of its parts. Even the most complex structured bond, credit arbitrage strategy or hedge trade can be broken down into its component parts, and if we understand the elemental components, we can then value the whole as the sum of its parts. We can quantify the risk that is hedged and the risk that is left as the residual exposure. If we learn to view all financial trades and securities as engineered packages of building blocks, then we can analyze in which structures some parts may be cheap and some may be rich. It is this relative value arbitrage principle that drives all modern trading and investment. This book is an easy-to-understand guide to the complex world of today’s financial markets teaching you what money and capital markets are about through a sequence of arbitrage-based numerical illustrations and exercises enriched with institutional detail. Filled with insights and real life examples from the trading floor, it is essential reading for anyone starting out in trading. Using a unique structural approach to teaching the mechanics of financial markets, the book dissects markets into their common building blocks: spot (cash), forward/futures, and contingent (options) transactions. After explaining how each of these is valued and settled, it exploits the structural uniformity across all markets to introduce the difficult subjects of financially engineered products and complex derivatives. The book avoids stochastic calculus in favour of numeric cash flow calculations, present value tables, and diagrams, explaining options, swaps and credit derivatives without any use of differential equations.

An insider's guide to understanding and eliminating accounting fraud How do these high-profile accounting scandals occur and what could have been done to prevent them. Hidden Financial Risk fills that void by examining methods for off balance sheet accounting, with a particular emphasis on special purpose entities (SPE), the accounting ruse of choice at Enron and other beleaguered companies. J. Edward Ketz identifies the incentives for managers to deceive investors and creditors about financial risk and also shows investors how to protect their investments in a world filled with accounting and auditing frauds. J. Edward Ketz, PhD (State College, PA) is MBA Faculty Director and Associate Professor of Accounting at Penn State's Smeal College of Business. He has been cited in the press nearly 300 times since Enron's bankruptcy, including The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and The Washington Post.. He has a regular column in Accounting Today.

A practical guide to counterparty risk management and credit value adjustment from a leading credit practitioner Please note that this second edition of Counterparty Credit Risk and Credit Value Adjustment has now been superseded by an updated version entitled The XVA Challenge: Counterparty Credit Risk, Funding, Collateral and Capital. Since the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the resultant realization of extensive counterparty risk across the global financial markets, the subject of counterparty risk has become an unavoidable issue for every financial institution. This book explains the emergence of counterparty risk and how financial institutions are developing capabilities for valuing it. It also covers portfolio management and hedging of credit value adjustment, debit value adjustment, and wrong-way counterparty risks. In addition, the book addresses the design and benefits of central clearing, a recent development in attempts to control the rapid growth of counterparty risk. This uniquely practical resource serves as an invaluable guide for market practitioners, policy makers, academics, and students.

Gain a deeper understanding of the issues surrounding financial risk and regulation Foundations of Financial Risk details the various risks, regulations, and supervisory requirements institutions face in today's economic and regulatory environment. Written by the experts at the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP), this book represents an update to GARP's original publication, Foundations of Banking Risk. You'll learn the terminology and basic concepts surrounding global financial risk and regulation, and develop an understanding of the methods used to measure and manage market, credit, and operational risk. Coverage includes traded market risk and regulation, treasury risk and regulation, and much more, including brand new coverage of risk management for insurance companies. Clear explanations, focused discussion, and comprehensive relevancy make this book an ideal resource for an introduction to risk management. The textbook provides an understanding of risk management methodologies, governance structures for risk management in financial institutions and the regulatory requirements dictated by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. It provides thorough coverage of the issues surrounding financial risk, giving you a solid knowledgebase and a practical, applicable understanding. Understand risk measurement and management Learn how minimum capital requirements are regulated Explore all aspects of financial institution regulation and disclosure Master the terminology of global risk and regulation Financial institutions and supervisors around the world are increasingly recognizing how vital sound risk management practices are to both individual firms and the capital markets system as a whole. Savvy professionals recognize the need for authoritative and comprehensive training, and Foundations of Financial Risk delivers with expert-led education for those new to risk management.

A comprehensive guide to managing global financial risk From the balance of payment exposure to foreign exchange and interest rate risk, to credit derivatives and other exotic options, futures, and swaps for mitigating and transferring risk, this book provides a simple yet comprehensive analysis of complex derivatives pricing and their application in risk management. The risk posed by foreign exchange transactions stems from the volatility of the exchange rate, the volatility of the interest rates, and factors unique to individual companies which are interrelated. To protect and hedge against adverse currency and interest rate changes, multinational corporations need to take concrete steps for mitigating these risks. Managing Global Financial and Foreign Exchange Rate Risk offers a thorough treatment of price, foreign currency, and interest rate risk management practices of multinational corporations in a dynamic global economy. It lays out the pros and cons of various hedging instruments, as well as the economic cost benefit analysis of alternative hedging vehicles. Written in a detailed yet user–friendly manner, this resource provides treasurers and other financial managers with the tools they need to manage their various exposures to credit, price, and foreign exchange risk. Managing Global Financial and Foreign Exchange Rate Risk covers various swaps in this geometrically growing field with notional principal in excess of $120 trillion. From caplet and corridors to call and put swaptions this book covers the micro structure of the swaps, options, futures, and foreign exchange markets. From credit default swap and transfer and convertibility options to asset swap switch and weather derivatives this book illustrates their simple pricing and application. To show real-world examples, each chapter includes a case study highlighting a specific problem, as well as a set of steps to solve it. Numerous charts accompanied with actual Wall Street figures provide the reader with the opportunity to comprehend and appreciate the role and function of derivatives, which are often misunderstood in the financial market. This detailed resource will guide the individual, government and multinational corporations safely through the maze of various exposures. A must-read for treasures, controllers, money mangers, portfolio managers, security analyst and academics, Managing Global Financial and Foreign Exchange Rate Risk represents an important collection of up-to-date risk management solutions. Ghassem A. Homaifar is a professor of financial economics at Middle Tennessee State University. He has Master of Science in Industrial Management from State University of New York at Stony Brook and PhD in Finance from University of Alabama in 1982. He is the author of numerous articles that have appeared in the Journal of Risk and Insurance, Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, Weltwirtschsftliches Archiv Review of World Economics, Advances in Futures and Options Research,Applied Financial Economics, Applied Economics, International Economics, and Global Finance Journal.

Designed for those who want to gain an understanding of the fundamental concepts and techniques used in financial management. An underlying premise of the book is that the objective of the firm is to maximize value or wealth. Drawing on a wealth of experience in the academic and professional worlds, the authors discuss how firms can accomplish this objective by making appropriate investment and financing decisions. Bridging the gap between financial theory and practice, the authors present fundamental concepts in an intuitive and nontechnical way, and provide numerous practical financial tips to readers. The focus is on current practice, using results from recent surveys to show the most popular techniques and approaches used by financial managers today. A range of instructor’s resources are available at the accompanying website. Visit www.blackwellpublishing.com/baker for full details.

Financial Risk Forecasting is a complete introduction to practical quantitative risk management, with a focus on market risk. Derived from the authors teaching notes and years spent training practitioners in risk management techniques, it brings together the three key disciplines of finance, statistics and modeling (programming), to provide a thorough grounding in risk management techniques. Written by renowned risk expert Jon Danielsson, the book begins with an introduction to financial markets and market prices, volatility clusters, fat tails and nonlinear dependence. It then goes on to present volatility forecasting with both univatiate and multivatiate methods, discussing the various methods used by industry, with a special focus on the GARCH family of models. The evaluation of the quality of forecasts is discussed in detail. Next, the main concepts in risk and models to forecast risk are discussed, especially volatility, value-at-risk and expected shortfall. The focus is both on risk in basic assets such as stocks and foreign exchange, but also calculations of risk in bonds and options, with analytical methods such as delta-normal VaR and duration-normal VaR and Monte Carlo simulation. The book then moves on to the evaluation of risk models with methods like backtesting, followed by a discussion on stress testing. The book concludes by focussing on the forecasting of risk in very large and uncommon events with extreme value theory and considering the underlying assumptions behind almost every risk model in practical use – that risk is exogenous – and what happens when those assumptions are violated. Every method presented brings together theoretical discussion and derivation of key equations and a discussion of issues in practical implementation. Each method is implemented in both MATLAB and R, two of the most commonly used mathematical programming languages for risk forecasting with which the reader can implement the models illustrated in the book. The book includes four appendices. The first introduces basic concepts in statistics and financial time series referred to throughout the book. The second and third introduce R and MATLAB, providing a discussion of the basic implementation of the software packages. And the final looks at the concept of maximum likelihood, especially issues in implementation and testing. The book is accompanied by a website – www.financialriskforecasting.com – which features downloadable code as used in the book.