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An engaging, entertaining, and informative introduction to probability and prediction in our everyday lives Although Probably Not deals with probability and statistics, it is not heavily mathematical and is not filled with complex derivations, proofs, and theoretical problem sets. This book unveils the world of statistics through questions such as what is known based upon the information at hand and what can be expected to happen. While learning essential concepts including «the confidence factor» and «random walks,» readers will be entertained and intrigued as they move from chapter to chapter. Moreover, the author provides a foundation of basic principles to guide decision making in almost all facets of life including playing games, developing winning business strategies, and managing personal finances. Much of the book is organized around easy-to-follow examples that address common, everyday issues such as: How travel time is affected by congestion, driving speed, and traffic lights Why different gambling casino strategies ultimately offer players no advantage How to estimate how many different birds of one species are seen on a walk through the woods Seemingly random events—coin flip games, the Central Limit Theorem, binomial distributions and Poisson distributions, Parrando's Paradox, and Benford's Law—are addressed and treated through key concepts and methods in probability. In addition, fun-to-solve problems including «the shared birthday» and «the prize behind door number one, two, or three» are found throughout the book, which allow readers to test and practice their new probability skills. Requiring little background knowledge of mathematics, readers will gain a greater understanding of the many daily activities and events that involve random processes and statistics. Combining the mathematics of probability with real-world examples, Probably Not is an ideal reference for practitioners and students who would like to learn more about the role of probability and statistics in everyday decision making.

Невесомая вуаль окутывает пряди ароматом Not a girl, который составили из нежных цветочных нот и томных восточных аккордов. В композиции переплетаются искрящиеся бергамот, лимон и черная смородина, очаровательная фиалка и мускусный ветивер. Формулу обогатили ухаживающими компонентами, которые защищают волосы от сухости и делают их более блестящими. Применение: Нанесите средство на сухие или слегка влажные волосы с расстояния 10–15 см.

In the second edition of their award-winning book, W. Timothy Coombs and Sherry J. Holladay provide a broad and thorough look at the field of public relations in the world today and assess its positive and negative impact on society’s values, knowledge, and perceptions. Uses a range of global, contemporary examples, from multi-national corporations through to the non-profit sector Updated to include discussion of new issues, such as the role and limitations of social media; the emergence of Issues Management; how private politics is shaping corporate behavior; and the rise of global activism and the complications of working in a global world Covers the search within the profession for a definition of PR, including the Melbourne Mandate and Barcelona Principles Balanced, well organized, and clearly written by two leading scholars

Practical Information and Tools to Create and Implement a Comprehensive College Campus Crisis Management Program Written by three seasoned crisis intervention/prevention specialists with over fifty years combined experience in the field, This is NOT a Fire Drill: Crisis Intervention and Prevention on College Campuses is a practical guide to creating a comprehensive college campus crisis management program. Authors Rick Myer, Richard James, and Patrice Moulton provide university administrators, faculty, and staff with invaluable hands-on examples, general tactics, and strategies along with specific prevention, intervention, and post-crisis logistics and techniques that can be applied to almost any crisis likely to be confronted on a college campus. This is NOT a Fire Drill features a host of helpful resources, including: A proven individual/organization assessment tool to ensure school professionals and staff take appropriate action to protect students, the college, and the community Thought-provoking case examples, activities, and illustrative dialogues that provide opportunities for reflection and practice A checklist to get a crisis prevention and intervention plan for human dilemmas up and running A decision-tree model to guide the response and recovery to crisis This is NOT a Fire Drill provides the necessary tools to address the emotional, cognitive, and behavioral responses of students and staff as they attempt to negotiate a crisis and its aftermath.

This is not a diary: while these observations were recorded in autumn 2010 and spring 2011 in the form of dated entries, they are not a personal reflection but an attempt to capture signs of our times in their movement – possibly at birth, at a stage when they are still barely perceptible, and in any case before they have matured into common, all too familiar forms, escaping our attention due to their banality. Some will perhaps settle in our daily life for a long time to come, others will fade and vanish before they would otherwise have a chance to be noted, recorded and explored in depth: in our fast-moving, protean and kaleidoscopic world, it is hardly possible to predict their future course and to decide in advance which of them will grow in volume and significance and which will prove to have been still-born. Whatever their fate, the author tried to take a leaf from William Blake's precept of seeing the universe in a grain of sand – and, having done so, alert us to what is or may be happening to our individual lives, forms of togetherness, shared prospects; to the ways we perceive and relate to each other, the forces that shape our life chances and itineraries; and to the ways we try to control, or at least influence, and sometimes even reform for the better, some or all those dimensions of our existence. These timely meditations by one of the most perceptive social thinkers of our time will appeal to a wide range of readers.

Detailed, practical coverage of GAAP, tailored to not-for-profit organizations Wiley Not-for-Profit GAAP 2015 is a thorough examination of the authoritative standards for measurement, presentation, and disclosure as applied to not-for-profit organizations. Clear and concise, this user-friendly guide explains the fundamentals of GAAP in an easily-accessible format that includes flowcharts and diagrams to help facilitate the reader's understanding of the material presented, including a financial statement disclosure checklist to confirm GAAP adherence. Designed specifically for accountants in public practice and industry, this guide covers all relevant FASB and AICPA guidelines, to provide a complete reference tool for auditors who need a comprehensive understanding of GAAP for not-for-profit organizations. Due to these organizations' unique characteristics, not-for-profit accountants must adhere to specific Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. These requirements are complex and ever evolving, but Wiley Not-for-Profit GAAP 2015 brings them together in a single volume that contains the most up-to-the-minute information available. Refine basic financial statements, including Financial Position, Activities, and Cash Flow Tackle not-for-profit-specific issues like fundraising, noncash contributions, affiliations, and pledges Tailor accounting methods to the specific type of organization, with budgeting, tax reporting, and regulatory advice Discover how general accounting topics like assets, mergers, and liabilities are applied to not-for-profit organizations Preparers and auditors of not-for-profit accounts must stay up-to-date on the latest GAAP practices to best serve the organization, while complying with all disclosure, reporting, and regulatory requirements. Wiley Not-for-Profit GAAP 2015 provides extensive coverage and practical advice on the latest GAAP, tailored to the not-for-profit organization's unique needs.

The essential not-for-profit GAAP reference, updated with the latest standards Wiley Not-for-Profit GAAP 2018 is the essential accounting resource for not-for-profit organizations, providing quick access to the most up-to-date standards and practical tools for implementation. Designed help you find the answers you need quickly and easily, this guide features helpful visual aids alongside detailed explanations tailored to the not-for-profit sector. Authoritative discussion covers Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) Accounting Standards Codification, which includes the standards originally issued in the Statements, Interpretations and Technical Bulletins; Accounting Principles Board Opinions, Accounting Research Bulletins, AICPA Statements of Position and FASB Emerging Issues Task Force statements relevant to the not-for-profit organization. The unique characteristics of the not-for-profit organization demand adherence to specific GAAP; auditors and preparers must understand these standards, stay up-to-date as they continue to evolve and know how to apply them in the course of real-world financial statement preparation. This book provides the guidance you need in a user-friendly format. Get up to date on the latest changes to GAAP affecting not-for-profit organizations Reference authoritative standards for measurement, presentation and disclosure Consult flowcharts, diagrams and charts to find answers at a glance Double-check disclosures against a checklist of GAAP requirements Accounting standards are constantly changing, and the special requirements targeting not-for-profits add an additional challenge to full compliance. Instead of wading through dozens of volumes of official pronouncements to locate relevant information, consult an all-in-one resource targeted specifically to not-for-profit GAAP – one that is updated annually to bring you the most current information available. Wiley Not-for-Profit GAAP 2018 provides clear answers and practical guidance to help you streamline GAAP implementation and ensure compliance.