A Probabilistic Analysis of the Sacco and Vanzetti Evidence

"This book should have a place on the bookshelf of every forensic scientist who cares about the science of evidence interpretation" Dr. Ian Evett, Principal Forensic Services Ltd, London, UK Continuing developments in science and technology mean that the amounts of information forensic scientists are able to provide for criminal investigations is ever increasing. The commensurate increase in complexity creates difficulties for scientists and lawyers with regard to evaluation and interpretation, notably with respect to issues of inference and decision. Probability theory, implemented through graphical methods, and specifically Bayesian networks, provides powerful methods to deal with this complexity. Extensions of these methods to elements of decision theory provide further support and assistance to the judicial system. Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science provides a unique and comprehensive introduction to the use of Bayesian decision networks for the evaluation and interpretation of scientific findings in forensic science, and for the support of decision-makers in their scientific and legal tasks. • Includes self-contained introductions to probability and decision theory. • Develops the characteristics of Bayesian networks, object-oriented Bayesian networks and their extension to decision models. • Features implementation of the methodology with reference to commercial and academically available software. • Presents standard networks and their extensions that can be easily implemented and that can assist in the reader’s own analysis of real cases. • Provides a technique for structuring problems and organizing data based on methods and principles of scientific reasoning. • Contains a method for the construction of coherent and defensible arguments for the analysis and evaluation of scientific findings and for decisions based on them. • Is written in a lucid style, suitable for forensic scientists and lawyers with minimal mathematical background. • Includes a foreword by Ian Evett. The clear and accessible style of this second edition makes this book ideal for all forensic scientists, applied statisticians and graduate students wishing to evaluate forensic findings from the perspective of probability and decision analysis. It will also appeal to lawyers and other scientists and professionals interested in the evaluation and interpretation of forensic findings, including decision making based on scientific information.

The leading reference on probabilistic methods in combinatorics-now expanded and updated When it was first published in 1991, The Probabilistic Method became instantly the standard reference on one of the most powerful and widely used tools in combinatorics. Still without competition nearly a decade later, this new edition brings you up to speed on recent developments, while adding useful exercises and over 30% new material. It continues to emphasize the basic elements of the methodology, discussing in a remarkably clear and informal style both algorithmic and classical methods as well as modern applications. The Probabilistic Method, Second Edition begins with basic techniques that use expectation and variance, as well as the more recent martingales and correlation inequalities, then explores areas where probabilistic techniques proved successful, including discrepancy and random graphs as well as cutting-edge topics in theoretical computer science. A series of proofs, or «probabilistic lenses,» are interspersed throughout the book, offering added insight into the application of the probabilistic approach. New and revised coverage includes: * Several improved as well as new results * A continuous approach to discrete probabilistic problems * Talagrand's Inequality and other novel concentration results * A discussion of the connection between discrepancy and VC-dimension * Several combinatorial applications of the entropy function and its properties * A new section on the life and work of Paul Erd?s-the developer of the probabilistic method

Praise for the Third Edition “Researchers of any kind of extremal combinatorics or theoretical computer science will welcome the new edition of this book.” – MAA Reviews Maintaining a standard of excellence that establishes The Probabilistic Method as the leading reference on probabilistic methods in combinatorics, the Fourth Edition continues to feature a clear writing style, illustrative examples, and illuminating exercises. The new edition includes numerous updates to reflect the most recent developments and advances in discrete mathematics and the connections to other areas in mathematics, theoretical computer science, and statistical physics. Emphasizing the methodology and techniques that enable problem-solving, The Probabilistic Method, Fourth Edition begins with a description of tools applied to probabilistic arguments, including basic techniques that use expectation and variance as well as the more advanced applications of martingales and correlation inequalities. The authors explore where probabilistic techniques have been applied successfully and also examine topical coverage such as discrepancy and random graphs, circuit complexity, computational geometry, and derandomization of randomized algorithms. Written by two well-known authorities in the field, the Fourth Edition features: Additional exercises throughout with hints and solutions to select problems in an appendix to help readers obtain a deeper understanding of the best methods and techniques New coverage on topics such as the Local Lemma, Six Standard Deviations result in Discrepancy Theory, Property B, and graph limits Updated sections to reflect major developments on the newest topics, discussions of the hypergraph container method, and many new references and improved results The Probabilistic Method, Fourth Edition is an ideal textbook for upper-undergraduate and graduate-level students majoring in mathematics, computer science, operations research, and statistics. The Fourth Edition is also an excellent reference for researchers and combinatorists who use probabilistic methods, discrete mathematics, and number theory. Noga Alon, PhD, is Baumritter Professor of Mathematics and Computer Science at Tel Aviv University. He is a member of the Israel National Academy of Sciences and Academia Europaea. A coeditor of the journal Random Structures and Algorithms, Dr. Alon is the recipient of the Polya Prize, The G?del Prize, The Israel Prize, and the EMET Prize. Joel H. Spencer, PhD, is Professor of Mathematics and Computer Science at the Courant Institute of New York University. He is the cofounder and coeditor of the journal Random Structures and Algorithms and is a Sloane Foundation Fellow. Dr. Spencer has written more than 200 published articles and is the coauthor of Ramsey Theory, Second Edition, also published by Wiley.

Sensory scientists are often faced with making business decisions based on the results of complex sensory tests involving a multitude of variables. Multivariate and Probabilistic Analyses of Sensory Science Problems explains the multivariate and probabilistic methods available to sensory scientists involved in product development or maintenance. The techniques discussed address sensory problems such as panel performance, product profiling, and exploration of consumer data, including segmentation and identifying drivers of liking. Applied in approach and written for non-statisticians, the text is aimed at sensory scientists who deal mostly with descriptive analysis and consumer studies. Multivariate and Probabilistic Analyses of Sensory Science Problems offers simple, easy-to-understand explanations of difficult statistical concepts and provides an extensive list of case studies with step-by-step instructions for performing analyses and interpreting the results. Coverage includes a refresher on basic multivariate statistical concepts; use of common data sets throughout the text; summary tables presenting the pros and cons of specific methods and the conclusions that may be drawn from using various methods; and sample program codes to perform the analyses and sample outputs. As the latest member of the IFT Press series, Multivariate and Probabilistic Analyses of Sensory Science Problems will be welcomed by sensory scientists in the food industry and other industries using similar testing methodologies, as well as by faculty teaching advanced sensory courses, and professionals conducting and participating in workshops addressing multivariate analysis of sensory and consumer data.

T he leading resource in the statistical evaluation and interpretation of forensic evidence   The third edition of  Statistics and the Evaluation of Evidence for Forensic Scientists  is fully updated to provide the latest research and developments in the use of statistical techniques to evaluate and interpret evidence. Courts are increasingly aware of the importance of proper evidence assessment when there is an element of uncertainty. Because of the increasing availability of data, the role of statistical and probabilistic reasoning is gaining a higher profile in criminal cases. That’s why lawyers, forensic scientists, graduate students, and researchers will find this book an essential resource, one which explores how forensic evidence can be evaluated and interpreted statistically. It’s written as an accessible source of information for all those with an interest in the evaluation and interpretation of forensic scientific evidence.  Discusses the entire chain of reasoning–from evidence pre-assessment to court presentation; Includes material for the understanding of evidence interpretation for single and multiple trace evidence; Provides real examples and data for improved understanding. Since the first edition of this book was published in 1995, this respected series has remained a leading resource in the statistical evaluation of forensic evidence. It shares knowledge from authors in the fields of statistics and forensic science who are international experts in the area of evidence evaluation and interpretation. This book helps people to deal with uncertainty related to scientific evidence and propositions. It introduces a method of reasoning that shows how to update beliefs coherently and to act rationally. In this edition, readers can find new information on the topics of elicitation, subjective probabilities, decision analysis, and cognitive bias, all discussed in a Bayesian framework.

Provides a modern, practical approach to the understanding and measurement procedures relevant to the fracture of brittle materials This book examines the testing and analysis of the fracture of brittle materials. Expanding on the measurement and analysis methodology contained in the first edition, it covers the relevant measurements (toughness and strength), material types, fracture mechanics, measurement techniques, reliability and lifetime predictions, microstructural considerations, and material/test selection processes appropriate for the analysis of the fracture behavior of brittle materials. The Fracture of Brittle Materials: Testing and Analysis, Second Edition summarizes the concepts behind the selection of a test procedure for fracture toughness and strength, and goes into detail on how the statistics of fracture can be used to assure reliability. It explains the importance of the role of microstructure in these determinations and emphasizes the use of fractographic analysis as an important tool in understanding why a part failed. The new edition includes a significant quantity of material related to the fracture of biomaterials, and features two new chapters—one on thermal shock, the other on the modeling of the fracture process. It also expands on a discussion of how to treat the statistics of fracture strength data to ensure reliability. Provides practical analysis of fracture toughness and strength Introduces the engineering and materials student to the basic concepts necessary for analyzing brittle fracture Contains new statistical analysis procedures to allow for the prediction of the safe design of brittle components Contains real-world examples to assist the reader in applying the concepts to their own research, material development, and quality-control needs The Fracture of Brittle Materials: Testing and Analysis, Second Edition is an important resource for all students, technicians, engineers, scientists, and researchers involved in the study, analysis, creation, or testing of ceramics.

Supports the use and development of strong, fracture-resistant, and mechanically reliable ceramic materials The Fracture of Brittle Materials thoroughly sets forth the key scientific and engineering concepts underlying the selection of test procedures for fracture toughness, strength determination, and reliability predictions. With this book as their guide, readers can confidently test and analyze a broad range of brittle materials in order to make the best use of existing materials as well as to support the development of new materials. The authors explain the importance of microstructure in these determinations and describe the use of quantitative fractography in failure analysis. The Fracture of Brittle Materials is relevant to a broad range of ceramic materials (i.e., any inorganic non-metal), including semiconductors, cements and concrete, oxides, carbides, and nitrides. The book covers such topics as: Basic principles of fracture mechanics underlying brittle material tests and analysis procedures Theory and mechanisms of environmentally enhanced crack growth Fracture mechanics tests to determine a material's resistance to fast fracture Test and analysis methods to assess the strength of ceramics Methods to analyze the fracture process based on quantitative measurements of the fracture surface Effect of a material's microstructure Methods for predicting the lifetime of brittle components under stress Throughout the book, figures and illustrations help readers understand key concepts and methods. Replete with real-world examples, this text enables engineers and materials and ceramics scientists to select and implement the optimal testing methods for their particular research needs and then accurately analyze the results.

The first edition of Statistics and the Evaluation of Evidence for Forensic Scientists established itself as a highly regarded authority on this area. Fully revised and updated, the second edition provides significant new material on areas of current interest including: Glass Interpretation Fibres Interpretation Bayes’ Nets The title presents comprehensive coverage of the statistical evaluation of forensic evidence. It is written with the assumption of a modest mathematical background and is illustrated throughout with up-to-date examples from a forensic science background. The clarity of exposition makes this book ideal for all forensic scientists, lawyers and other professionals in related fields interested in the quantitative assessment and evaluation of evidence. 'There can be no doubt that the appreciation of some evidence in a court of law has been greatly enhanced by the sound use of statistical ideas and one can be confident that the next decade will see further developments, during which time this book will admirably serve those who have cause to use statistics in forensic science.' D.V. Lindley

This beautifully illustrated textbook provides a clear guide to the tools and techniques of genetic engineering, gene cloning and molecular biology. All aspects of genetic engineering in the post-genomic era are covered, beginning with the basics of DNA structure and DNA metabolism. Using an example-driven approach, the fundamentals of creating mutations in DNA, cloning in bacteria, yeast, plants and animals are all clearly presented. Strong emphasis is placed on the latest, post genomic technologies including DNA macro and microarrays, genome-wide two hybrid analysis, proteomics and bioinformatics. A modern post-genome era introduction to key techniques used in genetic engineering. An example driven past-to-present approach to allow the experiments of today to be placed in an historical context The book is beautifully illustrated in full-colour throughout. Associated website including updates, additional content and illusions