Bayesian Inference in the Social Sciences

Bayesian methods are increasingly being used in the social sciences, as the problems encountered lend themselves so naturally to the subjective qualities of Bayesian methodology. This book provides an accessible introduction to Bayesian methods, tailored specifically for social science students. It contains lots of real examples from political science, psychology, sociology, and economics, exercises in all chapters, and detailed descriptions of all the key concepts, without assuming any background in statistics beyond a first course. It features examples of how to implement the methods using WinBUGS – the most-widely used Bayesian analysis software in the world – and R – an open-source statistical software. The book is supported by a Website featuring WinBUGS and R code, and data sets.

Its main objective is to examine the application and relevance of Bayes' theorem to problems that arise in scientific investigation in which inferences must be made regarding parameter values about which little is known a priori. Begins with a discussion of some important general aspects of the Bayesian approach such as the choice of prior distribution, particularly noninformative prior distribution, the problem of nuisance parameters and the role of sufficient statistics, followed by many standard problems concerned with the comparison of location and scale parameters. The main thrust is an investigation of questions with appropriate analysis of mathematical results which are illustrated with numerical examples, providing evidence of the value of the Bayesian approach.

A one-of-a-kind compilation of modern statistical methods designed to support and advance research across the social sciences Statistics in the Social Sciences: Current Methodological Developments presents new and exciting statistical methodologies to help advance research and data analysis across the many disciplines in the social sciences. Quantitative methods in various subfields, from psychology to economics, are under demand for constant development and refinement. This volume features invited overview papers, as well as original research presented at the Sixth Annual Winemiller Conference: Methodological Developments of Statistics in the Social Sciences, an international meeting that focused on fostering collaboration among mathematical statisticians and social science researchers. The book provides an accessible and insightful look at modern approaches to identifying and describing current, effective methodologies that ultimately add value to various fields of social science research. With contributions from leading international experts on the topic, the book features in-depth coverage of modern quantitative social sciences topics, including: Correlation Structures Structural Equation Models and Recent Extensions Order-Constrained Proximity Matrix Representations Multi-objective and Multi-dimensional Scaling Differences in Bayesian and Non-Bayesian Inference Bootstrap Test of Shape Invariance across Distributions Statistical Software for the Social Sciences Statistics in the Social Sciences: Current Methodological Developments is an excellent supplement for graduate courses on social science statistics in both statistics departments and quantitative social sciences programs. It is also a valuable reference for researchers and practitioners in the fields of psychology, sociology, economics, and market research.

Such diverse thinkers as Lao-Tze, Confucius, and U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld have all pointed out that we need to be able to tell the difference between real and assumed knowledge. The systematic review is a scientific tool that can help with this difficult task. It can help, for example, with appraising, summarising, and communicating the results and implications of otherwise unmanageable quantities of data. This book, written by two highly-respected social scientists, provides an overview of systematic literature review methods: Outlining the rationale and methods of systematic reviews; Giving worked examples from social science and other fields; Applying the practice to all social science disciplines; It requires no previous knowledge, but takes the reader through the process stage by stage; Drawing on examples from such diverse fields as psychology, criminology, education, transport, social welfare, public health, and housing and urban policy, among others. Including detailed sections on assessing the quality of both quantitative, and qualitative research; searching for evidence in the social sciences; meta-analytic and other methods of evidence synthesis; publication bias; heterogeneity; and approaches to dissemination.

"This book should have a place on the bookshelf of every forensic scientist who cares about the science of evidence interpretation" Dr. Ian Evett, Principal Forensic Services Ltd, London, UK Continuing developments in science and technology mean that the amounts of information forensic scientists are able to provide for criminal investigations is ever increasing. The commensurate increase in complexity creates difficulties for scientists and lawyers with regard to evaluation and interpretation, notably with respect to issues of inference and decision. Probability theory, implemented through graphical methods, and specifically Bayesian networks, provides powerful methods to deal with this complexity. Extensions of these methods to elements of decision theory provide further support and assistance to the judicial system. Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science provides a unique and comprehensive introduction to the use of Bayesian decision networks for the evaluation and interpretation of scientific findings in forensic science, and for the support of decision-makers in their scientific and legal tasks. • Includes self-contained introductions to probability and decision theory. • Develops the characteristics of Bayesian networks, object-oriented Bayesian networks and their extension to decision models. • Features implementation of the methodology with reference to commercial and academically available software. • Presents standard networks and their extensions that can be easily implemented and that can assist in the reader’s own analysis of real cases. • Provides a technique for structuring problems and organizing data based on methods and principles of scientific reasoning. • Contains a method for the construction of coherent and defensible arguments for the analysis and evaluation of scientific findings and for decisions based on them. • Is written in a lucid style, suitable for forensic scientists and lawyers with minimal mathematical background. • Includes a foreword by Ian Evett. The clear and accessible style of this second edition makes this book ideal for all forensic scientists, applied statisticians and graduate students wishing to evaluate forensic findings from the perspective of probability and decision analysis. It will also appeal to lawyers and other scientists and professionals interested in the evaluation and interpretation of forensic findings, including decision making based on scientific information.

In this ground-breaking new text, Patrick Baert analyses the central perspectives in the philosophy of social science, critically investigating the work of Durkheim, Weber, Popper, critical realism, critical theory, and Rorty's neo pragmatism. Places key writers in their social and political contexts, helping to make their ideas meaningful to students. Shows how these authors’ views have practical uses in empirical research. Lively approach that makes complex ideas understandable to upper-level students, as well as having scholarly appeal.

This book brings together a collection of articles on statistical methods relating to missing data analysis, including multiple imputation, propensity scores, instrumental variables, and Bayesian inference. Covering new research topics and real-world examples which do not feature in many standard texts. The book is dedicated to Professor Don Rubin (Harvard). Don Rubin has made fundamental contributions to the study of missing data. Key features of the book include: Comprehensive coverage of an imporant area for both research and applications. Adopts a pragmatic approach to describing a wide range of intermediate and advanced statistical techniques. Covers key topics such as multiple imputation, propensity scores, instrumental variables and Bayesian inference. Includes a number of applications from the social and health sciences. Edited and authored by highly respected researchers in the area.

An introductory guide to smoothing techniques, semiparametric estimators, and their related methods, this book describes the methodology via a selection of carefully explained examples and data sets. It also demonstrates the potential of these techniques using detailed empirical examples drawn from the social and political sciences. Each chapter includes exercises and examples and there is a supplementary website containing all the datasets used, as well as computer code, allowing readers to replicate every analysis reported in the book. Includes software for implementing the methods in S-Plus and R.

Guides readers through the quantitative data analysis process including contextualizing data within a research situation, connecting data to the appropriate statistical tests, and drawing valid conclusions Introduction to Quantitative Data Analysis in the Behavioral and Social Sciences presents a clear and accessible introduction to the basics of quantitative data analysis and focuses on how to use statistical tests as a key tool for analyzing research data. The book presents the entire data analysis process as a cyclical, multiphase process and addresses the processes of exploratory analysis, decision-making for performing parametric or nonparametric analysis, and practical significance determination. In addition, the author details how data analysis is used to reveal the underlying patterns and relationships between the variables and connects those trends to the data’s contextual situation. Filling the gap in quantitative data analysis literature, this book teaches the methods and thought processes behind data analysis, rather than how to perform the study itself or how to perform individual statistical tests. With a clear and conversational style, readers are provided with a better understanding of the overall structure and methodology behind performing a data analysis as well as the needed techniques to make informed, meaningful decisions during data analysis. The book features numerous data analysis examples in order to emphasize the decision and thought processes that are best followed, and self-contained sections throughout separate the statistical data analysis from the detailed discussion of the concepts allowing readers to reference a specific section of the book for immediate solutions to problems and/or applications. Introduction to Quantitative Data Analysis in the Behavioral and Social Sciences also features coverage of the following: • The overall methodology and research mind-set for how to approach quantitative data analysis and how to use statistics tests as part of research data analysis • A comprehensive understanding of the data, its connection to a research situation, and the most appropriate statistical tests for the data • Numerous data analysis problems and worked-out examples to illustrate the decision and thought processes that reveal underlying patterns and trends • Detailed examples of the main concepts to aid readers in gaining the needed skills to perform a full analysis of research problems • A conversational tone to effectively introduce readers to the basics of how to perform data analysis as well as make meaningful decisions during data analysis Introduction to Quantitative Data Analysis in the Behavioral and Social Sciences is an ideal textbook for upper-undergraduate and graduate-level research method courses in the behavioral and social sciences, statistics, and engineering. This book is also an appropriate reference for practitioners who require a review of quantitative research methods. Michael J. Albers, Ph.D., is Professor in the Department of English at East Carolina University. His research interests include information design with a focus on answering real-world questions, the presentation of complex information, and human–information interaction. Dr. Albers received his Ph.D. in Technical Communication and Rhetoric from Texas Tech University.

The Blackwell Guide to the Philosophy of the Social Sciences collects newly commissioned essays that examine fundamental issues in the social sciences.