Credit Risk Frontiers. Subprime Crisis, Pricing and Hedging, CVA, MBS, Ratings, and Liquidity

The market for credit derivatives–financial instruments designed to transfer credit risk from one party to another–has grown exponentially in recent years, with volume expected to reach more than $4.8 trillion by 2004. With demand increasing from the private sector for finance professionals trained in the opportunities–and dangers–inherent in this fast-changing market, finance courses are already springing up to meet this need. Credit Derivatives: Explains the field of credit derivatives to business students with a background in finance Cites real-world examples throughout, reinforced by end-of-chapter questions and internet links to pricing models Provides a concise overview of the field that is ideal for instructors seeking to supplement traditional derivatives course material, as well as those looking to offer a stand-alone course on credit derivatives.

A step-by-step, real world guide to the use of Value at Risk (VaR) models, this text applies the VaR approach to the measurement of market risk, credit risk and operational risk. The book describes and critiques proprietary models, illustrating them with practical examples drawn from actual case studies. Explaining the logic behind the economics and statistics, this technically sophisticated yet intuitive text should be an essential resource for all readers operating in a world of risk. Applies the Value at Risk approach to market, credit, and operational risk measurement. Illustrates models with real-world case studies. Features coverage of BIS bank capital requirements.

A better development and implementation framework for credit risk scorecards Intelligent Credit Scoring presents a business-oriented process for the development and implementation of risk prediction scorecards. The credit scorecard is a powerful tool for measuring the risk of individual borrowers, gauging overall risk exposure and developing analytically driven, risk-adjusted strategies for existing customers. In the past 10 years, hundreds of banks worldwide have brought the process of developing credit scoring models in-house, while ‘credit scores' have become a frequent topic of conversation in many countries where bureau scores are used broadly. In the United States, the ‘FICO' and ‘Vantage' scores continue to be discussed by borrowers hoping to get a better deal from the banks. While knowledge of the statistical processes around building credit scorecards is common, the business context and intelligence that allows you to build better, more robust, and ultimately more intelligent, scorecards is not. As the follow-up to Credit Risk Scorecards, this updated second edition includes new detailed examples, new real-world stories, new diagrams, deeper discussion on topics including WOE curves, the latest trends that expand scorecard functionality and new in-depth analyses in every chapter. Expanded coverage includes new chapters on defining infrastructure for in-house credit scoring, validation, governance, and Big Data. Black box scorecard development by isolated teams has resulted in statistically valid, but operationally unacceptable models at times. This book shows you how various personas in a financial institution can work together to create more intelligent scorecards, to avoid disasters, and facilitate better decision making. Key items discussed include: Following a clear step by step framework for development, implementation, and beyond Lots of real life tips and hints on how to detect and fix data issues How to realise bigger ROI from credit scoring using internal resources Explore new trends and advances to get more out of the scorecard Credit scoring is now a very common tool used by banks, Telcos, and others around the world for loan origination, decisioning, credit limit management, collections management, cross selling, and many other decisions. Intelligent Credit Scoring helps you organise resources, streamline processes, and build more intelligent scorecards that will help achieve better results.

The dramatic and well chronicled crisis of 2007/8 marked a watershed moment for all stakeholders in global capital markets. In the aftermath, financial markets have become even more tightly coupled as correlations in returns across multiple asset classes have been at historically elevated levels. Investors and fund managers are, to a much larger degree than previously and often much more than they realize, subject to the risk of severe wealth destruction. The ultimate hazard, which is not adequately characterized by the widely touted notion of tail risk, is the systemic risk which arises when liquidity in markets completely evaporates. Not only did this happen in the second half of 2008, but it has been repeated episodically since then – most notably in May 2010, in an incident known as the Flash Crash, and in the fall of 2011 when correlations were at historically elevated levels. Conventional asset allocation tools and techniques have failed to keep apace with the changing financial landscape which has emerged since 2008. In addition to the preponderance of algorithmic trading and the associated changes in the liquidity characteristics of financial markets, a new paradigm of risk on/risk off asset allocation has emerged. Risk on/risk off is a widely adopted style of trading and macro allocation strategy where positions are taken in several closely aligned asset classes depending on the prevailing sentiment or appetite for risk. The consequences of the day to day (and intraday) switching between either a risk on or risk off tactical strategies poses significant new challenges to investors who are still making investment decisions with outmoded notions from traditional asset allocation theory. How can one cushion the impact of systemically threatening events when the ability to exit financial instruments becomes almost non existent? How can one trust the integrity of financial models and orthodox macro financial theory which have become increasingly discredited? Can central bankers be relied upon to become the counter-parties of last resort and provide a safety net under the financial system? These vital questions, and many others, need to be addressed by everyone who has a stake in modern financial markets, and they are addressed in Systemic Liquidity Risk and Bipolar Markets. Proper functioning markets require fractiousness or divided opinion, and this needs to be lubricated by communications from central bankers, economic forecasters, corporate executives and so on. As long as such messages and market conditions remain ambiguous, providing asymmetric information to different market players, then the conditions are present to enable systemic liquidity to be preserved. Seen in this context the prevailing paradigm of bipolar risk on/risk off asset allocations is both a prerequisite to liquid markets, and also paradoxically, when one side of the polarity becomes too extreme, a major source of systemic instability. Should such polarities become critically unbalanced, and should the signals received by market players become symmetrically disadvantageous as they were in the fall of 2008, then an even more substantial systemic liquidity crisis than that seen in those troubled times is a dangerous possibility. Apart from the practical risk management tools and tactics that are recommended in Systemic Liquidity Risk and Bipolar Markets, there is a provocative and cogent narrative to provide anxious and perplexed investors with a coherent explanation of the post GFC financial environment, and which should assist them in navigating the choppy waters ahead.

The long-awaited, comprehensive guide to practical credit risk modeling Credit Risk Analytics provides a targeted training guide for risk managers looking to efficiently build or validate in-house models for credit risk management. Combining theory with practice, this book walks you through the fundamentals of credit risk management and shows you how to implement these concepts using the SAS credit risk management program, with helpful code provided. Coverage includes data analysis and preprocessing, credit scoring; PD and LGD estimation and forecasting, low default portfolios, correlation modeling and estimation, validation, implementation of prudential regulation, stress testing of existing modeling concepts, and more, to provide a one-stop tutorial and reference for credit risk analytics. The companion website offers examples of both real and simulated credit portfolio data to help you more easily implement the concepts discussed, and the expert author team provides practical insight on this real-world intersection of finance, statistics, and analytics. SAS is the preferred software for credit risk modeling due to its functionality and ability to process large amounts of data. This book shows you how to exploit the capabilities of this high-powered package to create clean, accurate credit risk management models. Understand the general concepts of credit risk management Validate and stress-test existing models Access working examples based on both real and simulated data Learn useful code for implementing and validating models in SAS Despite the high demand for in-house models, there is little comprehensive training available; practitioners are left to comb through piece-meal resources, executive training courses, and consultancies to cobble together the information they need. This book ends the search by providing a comprehensive, focused resource backed by expert guidance. Credit Risk Analytics is the reference every risk manager needs to streamline the modeling process.

The recent financial crisis has highlighted the need for better valuation models and risk management procedures, better understanding of structured products, and has called into question the actions of many financial institutions. It has become commonplace to blame the inadequacy of credit risk models, claiming that the crisis was due to sophisticated and obscure products being traded, but practitioners have for a long time been aware of the dangers and limitations of credit models. It would seem that a lack of understanding of these models is the root cause of their failures but until now little analysis had been published on the subject and, when published, it had gained very limited attention. Credit Models and the Crisis is a succinct but technical analysis of the key aspects of the credit derivatives modeling problems, tracing the development (and flaws) of new quantitative methods for credit derivatives and CDOs up to and through the credit crisis. Responding to the immediate need for clarity in the market and academic research environments, this book follows the development of credit derivatives and CDOs at a technical level, analyzing the impact, strengths and weaknesses of methods ranging from the introduction of the Gaussian Copula model and the related implied correlations to the introduction of arbitrage-free dynamic loss models capable of calibrating all the tranches for all the maturities at the same time. It also illustrates the implied copula, a method that can consistently account for CDOs with different attachment and detachment points but not for different maturities, and explains why the Gaussian Copula model is still used in its base correlation formulation. The book reports both alarming pre-crisis research and market examples, as well as commentary through history, using data up to the end of 2009, making it an important addition to modern derivatives literature. With banks and regulators struggling to fully analyze at a technical level, many of the flaws in modern financial models, it will be indispensable for quantitative practitioners and academics who want to develop stable and functional models in the future.

The importance of managing credit and credit risks carefully and appropriately cannot be overestimated. The very success or failure of a bank and the banking industry in general may well depend on how credit risk is handled. Banking professionals must be fully versed in the risks associated with credit operations and how to manage those risks. This up-to-date volume is an invaluable reference and study tool that delves deep into issues associated with credit risk management. Credit Risk Management from the Hong Kong Institute of Bankers (HKIB)discusses the various ways through which banks manage risks. Essential for candidates studying for the HKIB Associateship Examination, it can also help those who want to acquire a deeper understanding of how and why banks make decisions and set up processes that lower their risk. Topics covered in this book include: Active credit portfolio management Risk management, pricing, and capital adequacy Capital requirements for banks Approaches to credit risk management Structural models and probability of default Techniques to determine loss given default Derivatives and structured products

COMMUNICATING IN R!SK, CRISIS, AND HIGH STRESS SITUATIONS LEARN THE UNIFYING PRINCIPLES BEHIND RISK, CRISIS, AND HIGH STRESS COMMUNICATION WITH THIS STATE-OF-THE-ART REFERENCE WRITTEN BY A MAJOR LEADER IN THE FIELD Communicating in Risk, Crisis, and High Stress Situations: Evidence-Based Strategies and Practice is about communicating with people in the most challenging circumstances: high stress situations characterized by high risks and high stakes. The ability to communicate effectively in a high stress situation is an essential communication competency for managers, engineers, scientists, and professionals in every field who can be thrust into demanding situations complicated by stress. Whether you are confronting an external crisis, an internal emergency, or leading organizational change, this book was written for you. Communicating in Risk, Crisis, and High Stress Situations brings together in one resource proven scientific research with practical, hands-on guidance from a world leader in the field. The book covers such critical topics as trust, stakeholder engagement, misinformation, messaging, and audience perceptions in the context of stress. This book is uniquely readable, thorough, and useful, thanks to features that include: Evidence-based theories and concepts that underlie and guide practice Tools and guidelines for practical and effective planning and application Experience-based advice for facing challenges posed by mainstream and social media Provocative case studies that bring home the key principles and strategies Illuminating case diaries that use the author’s breadth and depth of experience to create extraordinary learning opportunities The book is a necessity for managers, engineers, scientists, and others who must communicate difficult technical concepts to a concerned public. It also belongs on the bookshelves of leaders and communicators in public and private sector organizations looking for a one-stop reference and evidence-based practical guide for communicating effectively in emotionally charged situations. Written by a highly successful academic, consultant, and trainer, the book is also designed as a resource for training and education.

Robust management of liquidity risk within the changing regulatory framework Liquidity Management applies current risk management theory, techniques, and processes to liquidity risk control and management to help organizations prepare in case of future economic crisis and changing regulatory framework. Based on extensive research conducted on banks' datasets, this book addresses the practical challenges and critical issues that frequently go unmentioned, and discusses the recent impact of sovereign crises on banks' liquidity processes and approaches. Market practices and regulatory stances are reviewed and compared to bank treasuries' response to liquidity crunches, refinancing risks are explored in the context of Basel 3, and alternative funding is analyzed in terms of resilience and allocation. Coverage includes the recent crisis, new regulations, and the techniques, processes, and strategies banks use in managing liquidity risk. The 2008 and 2010 crises brought liquidity risk out of the shadows as even profitable and well-capitalized banks were swept away with breathtaking speed. This book reviews modeling and internal process design in the context of the structural change in market conditions on banks' refinancing and control requirements, helping readers rethink and re-design their organization's approach to liquidity risk. Understand the new liquidity regulatory framework and the implications for banks Study the latest liquidity measurement models, with stress testing and scenario analysis Discover the effect of illiquid financing markets and possible lasting impacts Compare market liquidity and warning signals that detect further deterioration With much of the world still reeling from history, it's important that liquidity risk become a major focus going forward. This practical guide provides valuable information, but also real, actionable steps that can be taken today to forecast and mitigate risks with an eye toward greater stability and security. Liquidity Management is a thorough, comprehensive guide to a more robust management of liquidity risk.

Clark and Mingyuan start with an insightful and comprehensive description of how market participants contributed to the current crisis in the residential mortgage markets and the root causes of the crisis. They then proceed to develop a new residential mortgage lending system that can fix our broken markets because it addresses the root causes. The most impressive attributes of their new system is its commonsense return to the basics of traditional underwriting, combined with factors based on expert judgment and statistics and forward-looking attributes, all of which can be updated as markets change. The whole process is transparent to the borrower, lender, and investor. —Dean Schultz, President and CEO, Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco «The credit market crisis of 2008 has deeply affected the economic lives of every American. Yet, its underlying causes and its surface features are so complex that many observers and even policymakers barely understand them. This timely book will help guide nonspecialists through the workings of financial markets, particularly how they value, price, and distribute risk.» —Professor William Greene, Stern School of Business, New York University «This book is a well-timed departure from much of what is being written today regarding the current foreclosure and credit crisis. Rather than attempting to blame lenders, borrowers, and/or federal regulators for the mortgage meltdown and the subsequent impacts on the financial markets, Clark and Mingyuan have proposed a groundbreaking new framework to revolutionize our current lending system. The book is built on the authors' deep understanding of risk and the models used for credit analysis, and reflects their commitment to solve the problem. What I find most profound is their passion to develop a system that will facilitate new and better investment, especially in underserved urban markets that have been disproportionately impacted in the current crisis. I applaud the authors for this important work, and urge practitioners and theorists alike to investigate this new approach.» —John Talmage, President and CEO, Social Compact «In the wake of the credit crisis, it is clear that transparency is the key to not repeating history. In Credit Risk Assessment: The New Lending System for Borrowers, Lenders and Investors, Clark Abrahams and Mingyuan Zhang describe a new lending framework that seeks to connect all the players in the lending chain and provide a more holistic view of customers' risk potential. As the financial services industry recovers from the mortgage meltdown, the Abrahams/Zhang lending model certainly offers some new food for thought to laymen and professionals alike.» —Maria Bruno-Britz, Senior Editor, Bank Systems & Technology magazine