Energy and Power Risk Management. New Developments in Modeling, Pricing, and Hedging

Presents systems-based theory, methodology, and applications in risk modeling, assessment, and management This book examines risk analysis, focusing on quantifying risk and constructing probabilities for real-world decision-making, including engineering, design, technology, institutions, organizations, and policy. The author presents fundamental concepts (hierarchical holographic modeling; state space; decision analysis; multi-objective trade-off analysis) as well as advanced material (extreme events and the partitioned multi-objective risk method; multi-objective decision trees; multi-objective risk impact analysis method; guiding principles in risk analysis); avoids higher mathematics whenever possible; and reinforces the material with examples and case studies. The book will be used in systems engineering, enterprise risk management, engineering management, industrial engineering, civil engineering, and operations research. The fourth edition of Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management features: Expanded chapters on systems-based guiding principles for risk modeling, planning, assessment, management, and communication; modeling interdependent and interconnected complex systems of systems with phantom system models; and hierarchical holographic modeling An expanded appendix including a Bayesian analysis for the prediction of chemical carcinogenicity, and the Farmer’s Dilemma formulated and solved using a deterministic linear model Updated case studies including a new case study on sequential Pareto-optimal decisions for emergent complex systems of systems A new companion website with over 200 solved exercises that feature risk analysis theories, methodologies, and application Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management, Fourth Edition, is written for both undergraduate and graduate students in systems engineering and systems management courses. The text also serves as a resource for academic, industry, and government professionals in the fields of homeland and cyber security, healthcare, physical infrastructure systems, engineering, business, and more.

Written by leading market risk academic, Professor Carol Alexander, Pricing, Hedging and Trading Financial Instruments forms part three of the Market Risk Analysis four volume set. This book is an in-depth, practical and accessible guide to the models that are used for pricing and the strategies that are used for hedging financial instruments, and to the markets in which they trade. It provides a comprehensive, rigorous and accessible introduction to bonds, swaps, futures and forwards and options, including variance swaps, volatility indices and their futures and options, to stochastic volatility models and to modelling the implied and local volatility surfaces. All together, the Market Risk Analysis four volume set illustrates virtually every concept or formula with a practical, numerical example or a longer, empirical case study. Across all four volumes there are approximately 300 numerical and empirical examples, 400 graphs and figures and 30 case studies many of which are contained in interactive Excel spreadsheets available from the the accompanying CD-ROM . Empirical examples and case studies specific to this volume include: Duration-Convexity approximation to bond portfolios, and portfolio immunization; Pricing floaters and vanilla, basis and variance swaps; Coupon stripping and yield curve fitting; Proxy hedging, and hedging international securities and energy futures portfolios; Pricing models for European exotics, including barriers, Asians, look-backs, choosers, capped, contingent, power, quanto, compo, exchange, ‘best-of’ and spread options; Libor model calibration; Dynamic models for implied volatility based on principal component analysis; Calibration of stochastic volatility models (Matlab code); Simulations from stochastic volatility and jump models; Duration, PV01 and volatility invariant cash flow mappings; Delta-gamma-theta-vega mappings for options portfolios; Volatility beta mapping to volatility indices.

Essential insights on the various aspects of financial derivatives If you want to understand derivatives without getting bogged down by the mathematics surrounding their pricing and valuation, Financial Derivatives is the book for you. Through in-depth insights gleaned from years of financial experience, Robert Kolb and James Overdahl clearly explain what derivatives are and how you can prudently use them within the context of your underlying business activities. Financial Derivatives introduces you to the wide range of markets for financial derivatives. This invaluable guide offers a broad overview of the different types of derivatives-futures, options, swaps, and structured products-while focusing on the principles that determine market prices. This comprehensive resource also provides a thorough introduction to financial derivatives and their importance to risk management in a corporate setting. Filled with helpful tables and charts, Financial Derivatives offers a wealth of knowledge on futures, options, swaps, financial engineering, and structured products. Discusses what derivatives are and how you can prudently implement them within the context of your underlying business activities Provides thorough coverage of financial derivatives and their role in risk management Explores financial derivatives without getting bogged down by the mathematics surrounding their pricing and valuation This informative guide will help you unlock the incredible potential of financial derivatives.

A hands-on guide to navigating the new fuel markets Fuel Hedging and Risk Management: Strategies for Airlines, Shippers and Other Consumers provides a clear and practical understanding of commodity price dynamics, key fuel hedging techniques, and risk management strategies for the corporate fuel consumer. It covers the commodity markets and derivative instruments in a manner accessible to corporate treasurers, financial officers, risk managers, commodity traders, structurers, as well as quantitative professionals dealing in the energy markets. The book includes a wide variety of key topics related to commodities and derivatives markets, financial risk analysis of commodity consumers, hedge program design and implementation, vanilla derivatives and exotic hedging products. The book is unique in providing intuitive guidance on understanding the dynamics of forward curves and volatility term structure for commodities, fuel derivatives valuation and counterparty risk concepts such as CVA, DVA and FVA. Fully up-to-date and relevant, this book includes comprehensive case studies that illustrate the hedging process from conception to execution and monitoring of hedges in diverse situations. This practical guide will help the reader: Gain expert insight into all aspects of fuel hedging, price and volatility drivers and dynamics. Develop a framework for financial risk analysis and hedge programs. Navigate volatile energy markets by employing effective risk management techniques. Manage unwanted risks associated with commodity derivatives by understanding liquidity and credit risk calculations, exposure optimization techniques, credit charges such as CVA, DVA, FVA, etc. Praise for Fuel Hedging and Risk Management «Risk Management is an art, not a science, but it certainly helps to know a lot of science. In this book, the authors provide an excellent overview of both qualitative and quantitative aspects of risk management and how to design and implement effective win-win fuel oil hedging strategies that will achieve the desired objectives under normal and extreme market conditions. In addition to discussing key foundational issues, the book also discusses a framework to understand and manage hugely important second-order effects, such as credit risk or margin calls or asset-liability mismatches, which have the potential to turn a good idea into a bad outcome. A must read for anyone in the finance department of a corporate, trade house, or financial firm involved in fuel oil hedging.» —Diego Parrilla, Former Global Head of Commodity Solutions and Head of Commodities, Bank of America «This book provides highly useful insights into hedging and risk management methodologies, as well as theory, for the users of energy products. Dafir provides intuition stemming from not just top-tier commodity structuring expertise, but also broader insight from his earlier experience as a credit derivatives and exotics trader.» —Mitch Matharu, former Head of Structuring, Merrill Lynch «An Absolute Must Read. From the fundamentals of oil markets to the key points in negotiating a credit agreement and minimizing hedging costs, passing by the subtleties of implied volatility surface construction and its implications in derivatives pricing, this book offers you the indispensable practitioner's toolbox, useful whether you are a novice or a seasoned fuel trader.» —Frederic Cogny, Global Head of Commodities Structured Products Trading, Standard Chartered Bank «In this book, Dafir blends his deep knowledge of the commodity markets and the vagaries of the financial market with his incredible mathematical ability to explore fuel hedging in a manner accessible to Fuel Procurement Departments, CFOs and board members.» —Mark Lo

The practical guide to using pricing and profitability management to build a better business A comprehensive reference for any business professional looking to understand the capabilities and competencies required for effectively managing pricing and profitability, Pricing and Profitability Management explains how to determine the right approach, tools, and techniques for each of six key categories (pricing strategy, price execution, advanced analytics and optimization, organizational alignment and governance, pricing technology and data management, and tax and regulatory effectiveness). Exploring each category in detail, the book addresses how an integrated approach to pricing improvement can give a sustainable, competitive advantage to any organization. The ultimate «how to» manual for any executive or manager interested in price management, the book presents a holistic, comprehensive framework that shows how integrating these pricing categories into a cohesive program leads to impressive gains that cannot be achieved through a single-pronged approach. Presents a comprehensive framework for more effectively managing pricing and profitability Identities the six key categories of pricing and profitability management Shows you how to gain a competitive edge by managing pricing and profitability Taking a comprehensive view of pricing, companies can position themselves to tap a vast source of shareholder value—the ability to set and enforce profitable prices, not just once, but again and again in response to marketplace changes and evolving business needs—and this book will show you how.

Exciting new developments in risk assessment and management Risk assessment and management is fundamentally founded on the knowledge available on the system or process under consideration. While this may be self-evident to the laymen, thought leaders within the risk community have come to recognize and emphasize the need to explicitly incorporate knowledge (K) in a systematic, rigorous, and transparent framework for describing and modeling risk. Featuring contributions by an international team of researchers and respected practitioners in the field, this book explores the latest developments in the ongoing effort to use risk assessment as a means for characterizing knowledge and/or lack of knowledge about a system or process of interest. By offering a fresh perspective on risk assessment and management, the book represents a significant contribution to the development of a sturdier foundation for the practice of risk assessment and for risk-informed decision making. How should K be described and evaluated in risk assessment? How can it be reflected and taken into account in formulating risk management strategies? With the help of numerous case studies and real-world examples, this book answers these and other critical questions at the heart of modern risk assessment, while identifying many practical challenges associated with this explicit framework. This book, written by international scholars and leaders in the field, and edited to make coverage both conceptually advanced and highly accessible: Offers a systematic, rigorous and transparent perspective and framework on risk assessment and management, explicitly strengthening the links between knowledge and risk Clearly and concisely introduces the key risk concepts at the foundation of risk assessment and management Features numerous cases and real-world examples, many of which focused on various engineering applications across an array of industries Knowledge of Risk Assessment and Management is a must-read for risk assessment and management professionals, as well as graduate students, researchers and educators in the field. It is also of interest to policy makers and business people who are eager to gain a better understanding of the foundations and boundaries of risk assessment, and how its outcomes should be used for decision-making.

The last few years have been a watershed for the commodities, cash and derivatives industry. New regulations and products have led to an explosion in the commodities markets, creating a new asset for investors that includes hedge funds as well as University endowments, and has resulted in a spectacular growth in spot and derivative trading. This book covers hard and soft commodities (energy, agriculture and metals) and analyses: Economic and geopolitical issues in commodities markets Commodity price and volume risk Stochastic modelling of commodity spot prices and forward curves Real options valuation and hedging of physical assets in the energy industry It is required reading for energy companies and utilities practitioners, commodity cash and derivatives traders in investment banks, the Agrifood business, Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) and Hedge Funds. In Commodities and Commodity Derivatives, H?lyette Geman shows her powerful command of the subject by combining a rigorous development of its mathematical modelling with a compact institutional presentation of the arcane characteristics of commodities that makes the complex analysis of commodities derivative securities accessible to both the academic and practitioner who wants a deep foundation and a breadth of different market applications. It is destined to be a «must have» on the subject.” —Robert Merton, Professor, Harvard Business School «A marvelously comprehensive book of interest to academics and practitioners alike, by one of the world's foremost experts in the field.» —Oldrich Vasicek, founder, KMV

A global banking risk management guide geared toward the practitioner Financial Risk Management presents an in-depth look at banking risk on a global scale, including comprehensive examination of the U.S. Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review, and the European Banking Authority stress tests. Written by the leaders of global banking risk products and management at SAS, this book provides the most up-to-date information and expert insight into real risk management. The discussion begins with an overview of methods for computing and managing a variety of risk, then moves into a review of the economic foundation of modern risk management and the growing importance of model risk management. Market risk, portfolio credit risk, counterparty credit risk, liquidity risk, profitability analysis, stress testing, and others are dissected and examined, arming you with the strategies you need to construct a robust risk management system. The book takes readers through a journey from basic market risk analysis to major recent advances in all financial risk disciplines seen in the banking industry. The quantitative methodologies are developed with ample business case discussions and examples illustrating how they are used in practice. Chapters devoted to firmwide risk and stress testing cross reference the different methodologies developed for the specific risk areas and explain how they work together at firmwide level. Since risk regulations have driven a lot of the recent practices, the book also relates to the current global regulations in the financial risk areas. Risk management is one of the fastest growing segments of the banking industry, fueled by banks' fundamental intermediary role in the global economy and the industry's profit-driven increase in risk-seeking behavior. This book is the product of the authors' experience in developing and implementing risk analytics in banks around the globe, giving you a comprehensive, quantitative-oriented risk management guide specifically for the practitioner. Compute and manage market, credit, asset, and liability risk Perform macroeconomic stress testing and act on the results Get up to date on regulatory practices and model risk management Examine the structure and construction of financial risk systems Delve into funds transfer pricing, profitability analysis, and more Quantitative capability is increasing with lightning speed, both methodologically and technologically. Risk professionals must keep pace with the changes, and exploit every tool at their disposal. Financial Risk Management is the practitioner's guide to anticipating, mitigating, and preventing risk in the modern banking industry.

This book consists of chapters by contributors (well-known professors, practitioners, and consultants from large and well respected money management firms within this area) offering the latest research in the OpRisk area. The chapters highlight how operational risk helps firms survive and prosper by givingreaders the latest, cutting-edge techniques in OpRisk management. Topics discussed include: Basel Accord II, getting ready for the New Basel III, Extreme Value Theory, the new capital requirements and regulations in the banking sector in relation to financial reporting (including developing concepts such as OpRisk Insurance which wasn't a part of the Basel II framework). The book further discussed quantitative and qualitative aspects of OpRisk, as well as fraud and applications to the fund industry.