Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management

Presents systems-based theory, methodology, and applications in risk modeling, assessment, and management This book examines risk analysis, focusing on quantifying risk and constructing probabilities for real-world decision-making, including engineering, design, technology, institutions, organizations, and policy. The author presents fundamental concepts (hierarchical holographic modeling; state space; decision analysis; multi-objective trade-off analysis) as well as advanced material (extreme events and the partitioned multi-objective risk method; multi-objective decision trees; multi-objective risk impact analysis method; guiding principles in risk analysis); avoids higher mathematics whenever possible; and reinforces the material with examples and case studies. The book will be used in systems engineering, enterprise risk management, engineering management, industrial engineering, civil engineering, and operations research. The fourth edition of Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management features: Expanded chapters on systems-based guiding principles for risk modeling, planning, assessment, management, and communication; modeling interdependent and interconnected complex systems of systems with phantom system models; and hierarchical holographic modeling An expanded appendix including a Bayesian analysis for the prediction of chemical carcinogenicity, and the Farmer’s Dilemma formulated and solved using a deterministic linear model Updated case studies including a new case study on sequential Pareto-optimal decisions for emergent complex systems of systems A new companion website with over 200 solved exercises that feature risk analysis theories, methodologies, and application Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management, Fourth Edition, is written for both undergraduate and graduate students in systems engineering and systems management courses. The text also serves as a resource for academic, industry, and government professionals in the fields of homeland and cyber security, healthcare, physical infrastructure systems, engineering, business, and more.

Exciting new developments in risk assessment and management Risk assessment and management is fundamentally founded on the knowledge available on the system or process under consideration. While this may be self-evident to the laymen, thought leaders within the risk community have come to recognize and emphasize the need to explicitly incorporate knowledge (K) in a systematic, rigorous, and transparent framework for describing and modeling risk. Featuring contributions by an international team of researchers and respected practitioners in the field, this book explores the latest developments in the ongoing effort to use risk assessment as a means for characterizing knowledge and/or lack of knowledge about a system or process of interest. By offering a fresh perspective on risk assessment and management, the book represents a significant contribution to the development of a sturdier foundation for the practice of risk assessment and for risk-informed decision making. How should K be described and evaluated in risk assessment? How can it be reflected and taken into account in formulating risk management strategies? With the help of numerous case studies and real-world examples, this book answers these and other critical questions at the heart of modern risk assessment, while identifying many practical challenges associated with this explicit framework. This book, written by international scholars and leaders in the field, and edited to make coverage both conceptually advanced and highly accessible: Offers a systematic, rigorous and transparent perspective and framework on risk assessment and management, explicitly strengthening the links between knowledge and risk Clearly and concisely introduces the key risk concepts at the foundation of risk assessment and management Features numerous cases and real-world examples, many of which focused on various engineering applications across an array of industries Knowledge of Risk Assessment and Management is a must-read for risk assessment and management professionals, as well as graduate students, researchers and educators in the field. It is also of interest to policy makers and business people who are eager to gain a better understanding of the foundations and boundaries of risk assessment, and how its outcomes should be used for decision-making.

An important guide to assessing and managing the environment from a landscape perspective Ecological relationships are nested within the landscape. Identifying the relevant spatial and temporal scales is critical for an effective understanding of ecological functions that human societies depend upon. Moreover, human encroachment into natural areas, or changes in climate, can alter spatial relationships, which in turn can negatively affect vital plant and wildlife patterns—and weaken economic structures needed to sustain human societies. This book is the first to combine multiple disciplines into one cohesive strategy to study these crucial connections, and looks toward building a social paradigm that embraces the dynamics of ecological systems. This book: Integrates landscape ecology, environmental risk assessment, valuation of ecological goods and services, and environmental management decision processes into one single source Includes chapters on quantitative measures, Bayesian modeling,?economic analysis, and sustainable landscapes Covers marine, forest, agricultural, and pharmaceutical risk assessment Has a chapter on predicting climate change risk to ecosystems Has a companion ftp site with color graphics, animations, and risk assessment tools With material that is accessible across all knowledge levels, Environmental Risk Assessment and Management from a Landscape Perspective moves beyond looking solely at chemical contaminants to diagnose environmental threats, and aims to accomplish practical risk assessment in a manner that supports long-term sustainable management.

This new book, written by two outstanding scientists in the field, describes the basic principles of toxic mechanisms and organ toxicity, providing detailed information on specific mechanisms or chemicals for exemplification. The goal is to provide sufficient information that the reader becomes familiar with the basic concepts in toxicology to enable him or her to understand the basic principles in toxicology and to evaluate the risks at given exposures. With this basic understanding the reader also will be able to critically evaluate the available information on a chemical and to identify data gaps. In addition to the introductory chapters the book will offer the following systematic information, presented in six special sections: Principles in Toxicology Organ Toxicology Methods in Toxicology Risk Assessment Risk Management Toxicity of Chemicals Fulfilling a demand for such a book, this will be a welcomed introductory text for students and non-experts alike to focus on and understand the principles of hazard identification and risk assessment of toxicants. Relevant to all those studying toxicology, biochemistry, biology, medicine and chemistry, as well as toxicologists in hospitals, universities and in industry.

Introduces risk assessment with key theories, proven methods, and state-of-the-art applications Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications  remains one of the few textbooks to address current risk analysis and risk assessment with an emphasis on the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice—from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. Updated to align with ISO 31000 and other amended standards, this all-new  2nd Edition  discusses the main ideas and techniques for assessing risk today. The book begins with an introduction of risk analysis, assessment, and management, and includes a new section on the history of risk analysis. It covers hazards and threats, how to measure and evaluate risk, and risk management. It also adds new sections on risk governance and risk-informed decision making; combining accident theories and criteria for evaluating data sources; and subjective probabilities. The risk assessment process is covered, as are how to establish context; planning and preparing; and identification, analysis, and evaluation of risk.  Risk Assessment  also offers new coverage of safe job analysis and semi-quantitative methods, and it discusses barrier management and HRA methods for offshore application. Finally, it looks at dynamic risk analysis, security and life-cycle use of risk.  Serves as a practical and modern guide to the current applications of risk analysis and assessment, supports key standards, and supplements legislation related to risk analysis Updated and revised to align with ISO 31000 Risk Management and other new standards and includes new chapters on security, dynamic risk analysis, as well as life-cycle use of risk analysis Provides in-depth coverage on hazard identification, methodologically outlining the steps for use of checklists, conducting preliminary hazard analysis, and job safety analysis Presents new coverage on the history of risk analysis, criteria for evaluating data sources, risk-informed decision making, subjective probabilities, semi-quantitative methods, and barrier management Contains more applications and examples, new and revised problems throughout, and detailed appendices that outline key terms and acronyms Supplemented with a book companion website containing Solutions to problems, presentation material and an Instructor Manual Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications, Second Edition  is ideal for courses on risk analysis/risk assessment and systems engineering at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also an excellent reference and resource for engineers, researchers, consultants, and practitioners who carry out risk assessment techniques in their everyday work.

Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: Theory and Practice assembles the expertise of more than fifty authorities from fifteen different fields, forming a comprehensive reference and textbook on risk assessment. Containing two dozen case studies of environmental or human health risk assessments, the text not only presents the theoretical underpinnings of the discipline, but also serves as a complete handbook and «how-to» guide for individuals conducting or interpreting risk assessments. In addition, more than 4,000 published papers and books in the field are cited. Editor Dennis Paustenbach has assembled chapters that present the most current methods for conducting hazard identification, dose-response and exposure assessment, and risk characterization components for risk assessments of any chemical hazard to humans or wildlife (fish, birds, and terrestrials). Topics addressed include hazards posed by: Air emissions Radiological hazards Contaminated soil and foods Agricultural hazards Occupational hazards Consumer products and water Hazardous waste sites Contaminated air and water The bringing together of so many of the world's authorities on these topics, plus the comprehensive nature of the text, promises to make Human and Ecological Risk Assessment the text against which others will be measured in the coming years.

The aim of this book is to study three essential components of modern finance – Risk Management, Asset Management and Asset and Liability Management, as well as the links that bind them together. It is divided into five parts: Part I sets out the financial and regulatory contexts that explain the rapid development of these three areas during the last few years and shows the ways in which the Risk Management function has developed recently in financial institutions. Part II is dedicated to the underlying theories of Asset Management and deals in depth with evaluation of financial assets and with theories relating to equities, bonds and options. Part III deals with a central theory of Risk Management, the general theory of Value at Risk or VaR, its estimation techniques and the setting up of the methodology. Part IV is the point at which Asset Management and Risk Management meet. It deals with Portfolio Risk Management (the application of risk management methods to private asset management), with an adaptation of Sharpe’s simple index method and the EGP method to suit VaR and application of the APT method to investment funds in terms of behavioural analysis. Part V is the point at which Risk Management and Asset and Liability Management (ALM) meet, and touches on techniques for measuring structural risks within the on and off balance sheet. The book is aimed both at financial professionals and at students whose studies contain a financial aspect. «Esch, Kieffer and Lopez have provided us with a comprehensive and well written treatise on risk. This is a must read, must keep volume for all those who need or aspire to a professional understanding of risk and its management.» —Harry M Markowitz, San Diego, USA

Financial risk management has become a popular practice amongst financial institutions to protect against the adverse effects of uncertainty caused by fluctuations in interest rates, exchange rates, commodity prices, and equity prices. New financial instruments and mathematical techniques are continuously developed and introduced in financial practice. These techniques are being used by an increasing number of firms, traders and financial risk managers across various industries. Risk and Financial Management: Mathematical and Computational Methods confronts the many issues and controversies, and explains the fundamental concepts that underpin financial risk management. Provides a comprehensive introduction to the core topics of risk and financial management. Adopts a pragmatic approach, focused on computational, rather than just theoretical, methods. Bridges the gap between theory and practice in financial risk management Includes coverage of utility theory, probability, options and derivatives, stochastic volatility and value at risk. Suitable for students of risk, mathematical finance, and financial risk management, and finance practitioners. Includes extensive reference lists, applications and suggestions for further reading. Risk and Financial Management: Mathematical and Computational Methods is ideally suited to both students of mathematical finance with little background in economics and finance, and students of financial risk management, as well as finance practitioners requiring a clearer understanding of the mathematical and computational methods they use every day. It combines the required level of rigor, to support the theoretical developments, with a practical flavour through many examples and applications.

Praise for Energy and Power Risk Management «Energy and Power Risk Management identifies and addresses the key issues in the development of the turbulent energy industry and the challenges it poses to market players. An insightful and far-reaching book written by two renowned professionals.» -Helyette Geman, Professor of Finance University Paris Dauphine and ESSEC «The most up-to-date and comprehensive book on managing energy price risk in the natural gas and power markets. An absolute imperative for energy traders and energy risk management professionals.» -Vincent Kaminski, Managing Director Citadel Investment Group LLC «Eydeland and Wolyniec's work does an excellent job of outlining the methods needed to measure and manage risk in the volatile energy market.» -Gerald G. Fleming, Vice President, Head of East Power Trading, TXU Energy Trading «This book combines academic rigor with real-world practicality. It is a must-read for anyone in energy risk management or asset valuation.» -Ron Erd, Senior Vice President American Electric Power

Risk Assessment Explore the fundamentals of risk assessment with references to the latest standards, methodologies, and approaches The Second Edition of Risk Assessment: A Practical Guide to Assessing Operational Risks delivers a practical exploration of a wide array of risk assessment tools in the contexts of preliminary hazard analysis, job safety analysis, task analysis, job risk assessment, personnel protective equipment hazard assessment, failure mode and effect analysis, and more. The distinguished authors discuss the latest standards, theories, and methodologies covering the fundamentals of risk assessments, as well as their practical applications for safety, health, and environmental professionals with risk assessment responsibilities. “What If”/Checklist Analysis Methods are included for additional guidance. Now in full color, the book includes interactive exercises, links, videos, and online risk assessment tools that can be immediately applied by working practitioners. The authors have also included: Material that reflects the latest updates to ISO standards, the ASSP Technical Report, and the ANSI Z590.3 Prevention through Design standard New hazard phrases for chemical hazards in the Globally Harmonized System, as well as NIOSH’s new occupational exposure banding tool The new risk-based approach featured in the NAVY IH Field Manual New chapters covering business continuity, causal factors analysis, and layers of protection analysis and barrier analysis An indispensable resource for employed safety professionals in a variety of industries, business leaders and staff personnel with safety responsibilities, and environmental engineers Risk Assessment: A Practical Guide to Assessing Operational Risks is also useful for students in safety, health, and environmental science courses.