How to Make Friends with the Dark

A practical guide to understanding economic forecasts In Inside the Crystal Ball: How to Make and Use Forecasts, UBS Chief U.S. Economist Maury Harris helps readers improve their own forecasting abilities by examining the elements and processes that characterize successful and failed forecasts. The book: Provides insights from Maury Harris, named among Bloomberg's 50 Most Influential People in Global Finance. Demonstrates «best practices» in the assembly and evaluation of forecasts. Harris walks readers through the real-life steps he and other successful forecasters take in preparing their projections. These valuable procedures can help forecast users evaluate forecasts and forecasters as inputs for making their own specific business and investment decisions. Emphasizes the critical role of judgment in improving projections derived from purely statistical methodologies. Harris explores the prerequisites for sound forecasting judgment—a good sense of history and an understanding of contemporary theoretical frameworks—in readable and illuminating detail. Addresses everyday forecasting issues, including the credibility of government statistics and analyses, fickle consumers, and volatile business spirits. Harris also offers procedural guidelines for special circumstances, such as natural disasters, terrorist threats, gyrating oil and stock prices, and international economic crises. Evaluates major contemporary forecasting issues—including the now commonplace hypothesis of sustained economic sluggishness, possible inflation outcomes in an environment of falling unemployment, and projecting interest rates when central banks implement unprecedented low interest rate and quantitative easing (QE) policies. Brings to life Harris's own experiences and those of other leading economists in his almost four-decade career as a professional economist and forecaster. Dr. Harris presents his personal recipes for long-term credibility and commercial success to anyone offering advice about the future.

Save your organization by building the skills to deal with difficult people We all have to work with people we can't stand to be around. Our challenge is to find creative ways to handle these difficult people. In the fable Make Difficult People Disappear, the skills and strategic plan needed to change your mindset are told through a clear, concise story. By first understanding the four main personality types in the workplace, Commander, Organizer, Relater, and Entertainer, readers can then devise effective strategies for diffusing unproductive and damaging behavior. This book serves to change the mindset and behavior of people who deal with difficulty on a regular basis. Wofford describes how through understanding our behavior differences and natural reactions to stress, that utilizing a plan based on these differences the difficulty simply seems to disappear Advises everyone from frustrated executives to entrepreneurs tired of dealing with difficult people who suck the life out of their organizations Complete with a step-by-step action plan, Make Difficult People Disappear serves to replenish your confidence and build skills in leading those who until now you didn't know how to manage and felt there was no choice but to continue to deal with or ignore.

You can still find plenty of good deals in a failing real estate market by applying the advice in The Peebles Path to Real Estate Wealth: How to Make Money in Any Market. Multimillionaire teal estate mogul R. Donahue Peebles makes it possible for you to always win in real estate, provided you have the right knowledge and exercise good judgment in the deals you make. Start with small investments and work up to bigger, more profitable properties; before you know it, you’ll be a smart investor earning large profits!

Everything first-timers need to know to avoid the most common mistakes homebuyers make Written especially for first-timers, this eye-opening guide turns you into an educated consumer, ensuring that the home or condo you buy is both a comfortable place to live and a great investment for the future. Compiled from the experience of hundreds of homebuyers, real estate agents, home builders, and mortgage lenders, it shows you the most common mistakes buyers make and illustrates them in practice so you don't fall into the same traps. Now revised and updated for today's hot real estate market, this invaluable resource covers everything from negotiating with sellers and making the down payment to shopping for the best mortgage and handling the closing. The new Fourth Edition also includes totally up-to-date guidance on using the Internet to find properties, secure financing, and collect important data. If you're thinking about buying a home in this overheated market, don't make these mistakes: Researching selling prices and still overpaying Believing everything your agent tells you Buying into an upscale neighborhood that's moving downscale Underestimating utilities and other costs Allowing your agent to negotiate for you Letting fear get the better of you and not buying at all Written by one of the nation's leading real estate experts and packed with hundreds of valuable tips and suggestions, The 106 Common Mistakes Homebuyers Make, Fourth Edition will give you the confidence–and the wisdom–to buy the right home at the right price.

The Enron debacle, the demise of Arthur Andersen, questionable practices at Tyco, Qwest, WorldCom, and a seemingly endless list of others have pushed public regard for business and business leaders to new lows. The need for smart leaders with vision and integrity has never been greater. Things need to change—and it will not be easy. We can take a first step toward producing better business leaders by changing some of our own ideas about what it means to «win.» Noel M. Tichy and Andrew R. McGill have brought together a stellar group of contributors from a variety of perspectives—including General Electric CEO Jeffrey Immelt, former Secretary of State James A. Baker III, and renowned management gurus Robert Quinn and C. K. Prahalad, among others—to offer insights that will help build better leaders, communities, and organizations. They show how to present a «Teachable Point of View» about business ethics that will help all leaders within an organization: Internalize core values Build a values-based culture across the organization Become engaged to teach the same values lessons to their staff Take action and raise the ethical bar Successful business leaders must be able to articulate their own unique Teachable Point of View on business ethics and drive it through their organization to ensure that everyone knows the ethical line and is neither shy nor silent if others risk crossing it.

The most trusted source of leadership wisdom, updated to address today's realities The Leadership Challenge is the gold-standard manual for effective leadership, grounded in research and written by the premier authorities in the field. With deep insight into the complex interpersonal dynamics of the workplace, this book positions leadership both as a skill to be learned, and as a relationship that must be nurtured to reach its full potential. This new sixth edition has been revised to address current challenges, and includes more international examples and a laser focus on business issues; you'll learn how extraordinary leaders accomplish extraordinary things, and how to develop your leadership skills and style to deliver quality results every time. Engaging stories delve into the fundamental roles that great leaders fulfill, and simple frameworks provide a primer for those who seek continuous improvement; by internalizing key insights and putting concepts into action, you'll become a more effective, more impactful leader. A good leader gets things done; a great leader aspires, inspires, and achieves more. This book highlights the differences between good and great, and shows you how to bridge the chasm between getting things done and making things happen. Gain deep insight into leadership's critical role in organizational health Navigate the shift toward team-oriented work relationships Motivate and inspire to break through the pervasive new cynicism Leverage the electronic global village to deliver better results Business is evolving at an increasingly rapid rate, and leaders must keep pace with the changes or risk stagnation. People work differently, are motivated differently, and have different expectations today—business as usual is quickly losing its effectiveness. The Leadership Challenge helps you stay current, relevant, and effective in the modern workplace.

How do we create new ways of looking at the world? Join award-winning data storyteller RJ Andrews as he pushes beyond the usual how-to, and takes you on an adventure into the rich art of informing. Creating Info We Trust is a craft that puts the world into forms that are strong and true. It begins with maps, diagrams, and charts – but must push further than dry defaults to be truly effective. How do we attract attention? How can we offer audiences valuable experiences worth their time? How can we help people access complexity? Dark and mysterious, but full of potential, data is the raw material from which new understanding can emerge. Become a hero of the information age as you learn how to dip into the chaos of data and emerge with new understanding that can entertain, improve, and inspire. Whether you call the craft data storytelling, data visualization, data journalism, dashboard design, or infographic creation – what matters is that you are courageously confronting the chaos of it all in order to improve how people see the world. Info We Trust is written for everyone who straddles the domains of data and people: data visualization professionals, analysts, and all who are enthusiastic for seeing the world in new ways. This book draws from the entirety of human experience, quantitative and poetic. It teaches advanced techniques, such as visual metaphor and data transformations, in order to create more human presentations of data. It also shows how we can learn from print advertising, engineering, museum curation, and mythology archetypes. This human-centered approach works with machines to design information for people. Advance your understanding beyond by learning from a broad tradition of putting things “in formation” to create new and wonderful ways of opening our eyes to the world. Info We Trust takes a thoroughly original point of attack on the art of informing. It builds on decades of best practices and adds the creative enthusiasm of a world-class data storyteller. Info We Trust is lavishly illustrated with hundreds of original compositions designed to illuminate the craft, delight the reader, and inspire a generation of data storytellers.

A different way of discovering and developing the best business ideas Jack Welch once said, «Someone, somewhere has a better idea.» In this myth-busting book, the authors reveal that great business ideas do not spring from innate creativity, or necessarily from the brilliant minds of people. Rather, great ideas come to those who are in the habit of looking for great ideas all around them, all the time. Too often, people fall into the trap of thinking that the only worthwhile idea is a thoroughly original one. Idea Hunters know better. They understand that valuable ideas are already out there, waiting to be found – and not just in the usual places. Shows how to expand your capacity to find and develop winning business ideas Explains why ideas are a critical asset for every manager and professional, not just for those who do «creative» Reveals how to seek out and select the ideas that best serve your purposes and goals and define who you are, as a professional Offers practical tips on how to master the everyday habits of an Idea Hunter, which include cultivating great conversations The book is filled with illustrative accounts of successful Idea Hunters and stories from thriving «idea» companies. Warren Buffet, Walt Disney, Thomas Edison, Mary Kay Ash, Twitter, and Pixar Animation Studios are among the many profiled.

Don't just make money…make a difference. As a social entrepreneur, you can build a business that changes the world. But you will face some unique challenges. This book will prepare you for them. Packed with advice, inspiration and real-life stories, it will help you: Define what you want to do and why you want to do it Find the right kind of funding Build a brand that makes you unique Find a team as motivated and inspired as you are Measure the impact you're having How to be a Social Entrepreneur is the only social enterprise start-up guide you'll ever need. «This is the seminal book on social enterprise» —Martin Murphy, Network 2012 «An essential read for any aspiring or existing social entrepreneur. Full of practical examples of real life social enterprise scenarios and written in Robert's usual uncomplicated format» —Marc Davies, Wales Co-operative Centre Limited, walescoop.com «Social enterprises need social entrepreneurs. This book will help you decide is you've got what it takes to be one» —Peter Couchman, Chief Executive, Plunkett Foundation, plunkett.co.uk «This very practical book will guide you as to what it takes to be a social entrepreneur. Enjoy it and then do it!» —Lord Andrew Mawson OBE, author of The Social Entrepreneur: Making Communities Work, amawsonpartnerships.com «I was genuinely impressed by how comprehensive it is!» —Peter Holbrook, CEO, Social Enterprise Coalition, socialenterprise.org.uk «A treasure trove filled with practical insight and knowledge that will give you the edge to start, grow a sustainable and successful social enterprise» —Stephen Gyasi-Kwaw, CEO/Founder Youth Enhancement Int.Ghana «I particularly enjoyed the section on sales, which is a fundamental topic too often neglected» —Andy Brady, '3rd Sector Futures', Anglia Ruskin University, anglia.ac.uk Robert Ashton is a leading small business troubleshooter, entertaining small business speaker and the bestselling author of many business books including How to Start a Business for Entrepreneurs, Instant Entrepreneur and The Entrepreneur's Book of Checklists.

A systematic plan for parents to help their kids acquire and sustain friendships Every parent hopes their child will develop healthy and happy friendships. However, most parents don't know what to do that will encourage their child to be a friend and attract friends. The author offers clear-cut friendship-making guidelines for parents and their children. Some of the book's recommendations include: don't over-schedule a child's time; guide children to participate in «friend-attracting» activities; seek out friends in the neighborhood. The author includes methods for dealing with bullying and inappropriate friendships Offers clear guidance for helping children become a good friend and attract lasting friendships for life Shows how to teach kids the social and emotional intelligence skills they need to form friendships such as listening, empathy, compassion, recreational conversation The book also includes techniques for teaching kids how to use MySpace, Facebook, and Twitter in positive ways that will foster friendships.