Spatial and Spatio-temporal Bayesian Models with R - INLA

Statistical Methods for Spatial and Spatio-Temporal Data Analysis provides a complete range of spatio-temporal covariance functions and discusses ways of constructing them. This book is a unified approach to modeling spatial and spatio-temporal data together with significant developments in statistical methodology with applications in R. This book includes: Methods for selecting valid covariance functions from the empirical counterparts that overcome the existing limitations of the traditional methods. The most innovative developments in the different steps of the kriging process. An up-to-date account of strategies for dealing with data evolving in space and time. An accompanying website featuring R code and examples

In the spatial or spatio-temporal context, specifying the correct covariance function is fundamental to obtain efficient predictions, and to understand the underlying physical process of interest. This book focuses on covariance and variogram functions, their role in prediction, and appropriate choice of these functions in applications. Both recent and more established methods are illustrated to assess many common assumptions on these functions, such as, isotropy, separability, symmetry, and intrinsic correlation. After an extensive introduction to spatial methodology, the book details the effects of common covariance assumptions and addresses methods to assess the appropriateness of such assumptions for various data structures. Key features: An extensive introduction to spatial methodology including a survey of spatial covariance functions and their use in spatial prediction (kriging) is given. Explores methodology for assessing the appropriateness of assumptions on covariance functions in the spatial, spatio-temporal, multivariate spatial, and point pattern settings. Provides illustrations of all methods based on data and simulation experiments to demonstrate all methodology and guide to proper usage of all methods. Presents a brief survey of spatial and spatio-temporal models, highlighting the Gaussian case and the binary data setting, along with the different methodologies for estimation and model fitting for these two data structures. Discusses models that allow for anisotropic and nonseparable behaviour in covariance functions in the spatial, spatio-temporal and multivariate settings. Gives an introduction to point pattern models, including testing for randomness, and fitting regular and clustered point patterns. The importance and assessment of isotropy of point patterns is detailed. Statisticians, researchers, and data analysts working with spatial and space-time data will benefit from this book as well as will graduate students with a background in basic statistics following courses in engineering, quantitative ecology or atmospheric science.

Winner of the 2013 DeGroot Prize. A state-of-the-art presentation of spatio-temporal processes, bridging classic ideas with modern hierarchical statistical modeling concepts and the latest computational methods Noel Cressie and Christopher K. Wikle, are also winners of the 2011 PROSE Award in the Mathematics category, for the book “Statistics for Spatio-Temporal Data” (2011), published by John Wiley and Sons. (The PROSE awards, for Professional and Scholarly Excellence, are given by the Association of American Publishers, the national trade association of the US book publishing industry.) Statistics for Spatio-Temporal Data has now been reprinted with small corrections to the text and the bibliography. The overall content and pagination of the new printing remains the same; the difference comes in the form of corrections to typographical errors, editing of incomplete and missing references, and some updated spatio-temporal interpretations. From understanding environmental processes and climate trends to developing new technologies for mapping public-health data and the spread of invasive-species, there is a high demand for statistical analyses of data that take spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal information into account. Statistics for Spatio-Temporal Data presents a systematic approach to key quantitative techniques that incorporate the latest advances in statistical computing as well as hierarchical, particularly Bayesian, statistical modeling, with an emphasis on dynamical spatio-temporal models. Cressie and Wikle supply a unique presentation that incorporates ideas from the areas of time series and spatial statistics as well as stochastic processes. Beginning with separate treatments of temporal data and spatial data, the book combines these concepts to discuss spatio-temporal statistical methods for understanding complex processes. Topics of coverage include: Exploratory methods for spatio-temporal data, including visualization, spectral analysis, empirical orthogonal function analysis, and LISAs Spatio-temporal covariance functions, spatio-temporal kriging, and time series of spatial processes Development of hierarchical dynamical spatio-temporal models (DSTMs), with discussion of linear and nonlinear DSTMs and computational algorithms for their implementation Quantifying and exploring spatio-temporal variability in scientific applications, including case studies based on real-world environmental data Throughout the book, interesting applications demonstrate the relevance of the presented concepts. Vivid, full-color graphics emphasize the visual nature of the topic, and a related FTP site contains supplementary material. Statistics for Spatio-Temporal Data is an excellent book for a graduate-level course on spatio-temporal statistics. It is also a valuable reference for researchers and practitioners in the fields of applied mathematics, engineering, and the environmental and health sciences.

This book explores social mechanisms that drive network change and link them to computationally sound models of changing structure to detect patterns. This text identifies the social processes generating these networks and how networks have evolved. Reviews: «this book is easy to read and entertaining, and much can be learned from it. Even if you know just about everything about large-scale and temporal networks, the book is a worthwhile read; you will learn a lot about SNA literature, patents, the US Supreme Court, and European soccer.» (Social Networks) «a clear and accessible textbook, balancing symbolic maths, code, and visual explanations. The authors’ enthusiasm for the subject matter makes it enjoyable to read» (JASSS)

A state-of-the-art presentation of optimum spatio-temporal sampling design – bridging classic ideas with modern statistical modeling concepts and the latest computational methods. Spatio-temporal Design presents a comprehensive state-of-the-art presentation combining both classical and modern treatments of network design and planning for spatial and spatio-temporal data acquisition. A common problem set is interwoven throughout the chapters, providing various perspectives to illustrate a complete insight to the problem at hand. Motivated by the high demand for statistical analysis of data that takes spatial and spatio-temporal information into account, this book incorporates ideas from the areas of time series, spatial statistics and stochastic processes, and combines them to discuss optimum spatio-temporal sampling design. Spatio-temporal Design: Advances in Efficient Data Acquisition: Provides an up-to-date account of how to collect space-time data for monitoring, with a focus on statistical aspects and the latest computational methods Discusses basic methods and distinguishes between design and model-based approaches to collecting space-time data. Features model-based frequentist design for univariate and multivariate geostatistics, and second-phase spatial sampling. Integrates common data examples and case studies throughout the book in order to demonstrate the different approaches and their integration. Includes real data sets, data generating mechanisms and simulation scenarios. Accompanied by a supporting website featuring R code. Spatio-temporal Design presents an excellent book for graduate level students as well as a valuable reference for researchers and practitioners in the fields of applied mathematics, engineering, and the environmental and health sciences.

Presents an introduction to Bayesian statistics, presents an emphasis on Bayesian methods (prior and posterior), Bayes estimation, prediction, MCMC,Bayesian regression, and Bayesian analysis of statistical modelsof dependence, and features a focus on copulas for risk management Introduction to Bayesian Estimation and Copula Models of Dependence emphasizes the applications of Bayesian analysis to copula modeling and equips readers with the tools needed to implement the procedures of Bayesian estimation in copula models of dependence. This book is structured in two parts: the first four chapters serve as a general introduction to Bayesian statistics with a clear emphasis on parametric estimation and the following four chapters stress statistical models of dependence with a focus of copulas. A review of the main concepts is discussed along with the basics of Bayesian statistics including prior information and experimental data, prior and posterior distributions, with an emphasis on Bayesian parametric estimation. The basic mathematical background of both Markov chains and Monte Carlo integration and simulation is also provided. The authors discuss statistical models of dependence with a focus on copulas and present a brief survey of pre-copula dependence models. The main definitions and notations of copula models are summarized followed by discussions of real-world cases that address particular risk management problems. In addition, this book includes: • Practical examples of copulas in use including within the Basel Accord II documents that regulate the world banking system as well as examples of Bayesian methods within current FDA recommendations • Step-by-step procedures of multivariate data analysis and copula modeling, allowing readers to gain insight for their own applied research and studies • Separate reference lists within each chapter and end-of-the-chapter exercises within Chapters 2 through 8 • A companion website containing appendices: data files and demo files in Microsoft® Office Excel®, basic code in R, and selected exercise solutions Introduction to Bayesian Estimation and Copula Models of Dependence is a reference and resource for statisticians who need to learn formal Bayesian analysis as well as professionals within analytical and risk management departments of banks and insurance companies who are involved in quantitative analysis and forecasting. This book can also be used as a textbook for upper-undergraduate and graduate-level courses in Bayesian statistics and analysis. ARKADY SHEMYAKIN, PhD, is Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Director of the Statistics Program at the University of St. Thomas. A member of the American Statistical Association and the International Society for Bayesian Analysis, Dr. Shemyakin's research interests include informationtheory, Bayesian methods of parametric estimation, and copula models in actuarial mathematics, finance, and engineering. ALEXANDER KNIAZEV, PhD, is Associate Professor and Head of the Department of Mathematics at Astrakhan State University in Russia. Dr. Kniazev's research interests include representation theory of Lie algebras and finite groups, mathematical statistics, econometrics, and financial mathematics.

Bayesian analysis of complex models based on stochastic processes has in recent years become a growing area. This book provides a unified treatment of Bayesian analysis of models based on stochastic processes, covering the main classes of stochastic processing including modeling, computational, inference, forecasting, decision making and important applied models. Key features: Explores Bayesian analysis of models based on stochastic processes, providing a unified treatment. Provides a thorough introduction for research students. Computational tools to deal with complex problems are illustrated along with real life case studies Looks at inference, prediction and decision making. Researchers, graduate and advanced undergraduate students interested in stochastic processes in fields such as statistics, operations research (OR), engineering, finance, economics, computer science and Bayesian analysis will benefit from reading this book. With numerous applications included, practitioners of OR, stochastic modelling and applied statistics will also find this book useful.

Presents inference and simulation of stochastic process in the field of model calibration for financial times series modelled by continuous time processes and numerical option pricing. Introduces the bases of probability theory and goes on to explain how to model financial times series with continuous models, how to calibrate them from discrete data and further covers option pricing with one or more underlying assets based on these models. Analysis and implementation of models goes beyond the standard Black and Scholes framework and includes Markov switching models, L?vy models and other models with jumps (e.g. the telegraph process); Topics other than option pricing include: volatility and covariation estimation, change point analysis, asymptotic expansion and classification of financial time series from a statistical viewpoint. The book features problems with solutions and examples. All the examples and R code are available as an additional R package, therefore all the examples can be reproduced.

The past decade has seen a dramatic increase in the use of Bayesian methods in marketing due, in part, to computational and modelling breakthroughs, making its implementation ideal for many marketing problems. Bayesian analyses can now be conducted over a wide range of marketing problems, from new product introduction to pricing, and with a wide variety of different data sources. Bayesian Statistics and Marketing describes the basic advantages of the Bayesian approach, detailing the nature of the computational revolution. Examples contained include household and consumer panel data on product purchases and survey data, demand models based on micro-economic theory and random effect models used to pool data among respondents. The book also discusses the theory and practical use of MCMC methods. Written by the leading experts in the field, this unique book: Presents a unified treatment of Bayesian methods in marketing, with common notation and algorithms for estimating the models. Provides a self-contained introduction to Bayesian methods. Includes case studies drawn from the authors’ recent research to illustrate how Bayesian methods can be extended to apply to many important marketing problems. Is accompanied by an R package, bayesm, which implements all of the models and methods in the book and includes many datasets. In addition the book’s website hosts datasets and R code for the case studies. Bayesian Statistics and Marketing provides a platform for researchers in marketing to analyse their data with state-of-the-art methods and develop new models of consumer behaviour. It provides a unified reference for cutting-edge marketing researchers, as well as an invaluable guide to this growing area for both graduate students and professors, alike.

An in-depth guide to understanding probability distributions and financial modeling for the purposes of investment management In Financial Models with L?vy Processes and Volatility Clustering, the expert author team provides a framework to model the behavior of stock returns in both a univariate and a multivariate setting, providing you with practical applications to option pricing and portfolio management. They also explain the reasons for working with non-normal distribution in financial modeling and the best methodologies for employing it. The book's framework includes the basics of probability distributions and explains the alpha-stable distribution and the tempered stable distribution. The authors also explore discrete time option pricing models, beginning with the classical normal model with volatility clustering to more recent models that consider both volatility clustering and heavy tails. Reviews the basics of probability distributions Analyzes a continuous time option pricing model (the so-called exponential L?vy model) Defines a discrete time model with volatility clustering and how to price options using Monte Carlo methods Studies two multivariate settings that are suitable to explain joint extreme events Financial Models with L?vy Processes and Volatility Clustering is a thorough guide to classical probability distribution methods and brand new methodologies for financial modeling.