Surviving and Thriving in Uncertainty. Creating The Risk Intelligent Enterprise

A comprehensive guide to excelling in a complex matrix organization Debra was not in a good mood as she entered Johann’s office for their third meeting. One of her colleagues had just been promoted and, although the guy who got it was good, she didn’t think he was any better than her. Well, except at one thing, he was always playing politics – sucking up to the more senior guys and volunteering to be on any committee going. Debra knew the type – went to the same school, belonged to the same club – she didn’t have a hope against the kind of connections he had so she might as well give up. It seemed doing a good job just wasn’t enough around here. Debra and Johann work in an environment with multiple and complex reporting lines – in other words, a matrix. There’s room to “slip between the cracks” – if a person wants to take advantage of confusion over who is managing performance; or if they can’t make the necessary transition to self-management. Communication can be difficult even when there is an apparently shared language. Read how Johann and Debra work together to identify the skills needed to succeed in a matrix, and how using Emotional Intelligence (EI) can develop specific behaviours you can incorporate in your daily job. The result will help reduce stress and increase your chances of success. Dawn Metcalfe, Managing Director of PDS, based in Dubai, uses her experience as a coach and trainer to give us a behind the curtain look at how mentoring can help an individual develop the skills they need to survive and thrive in today’s complex work environments.

Real life insights on what it takes to make it in a relationship with an entrepreneur Entrepreneurs are always on the go, looking for the next «startup» challenge. And while they lead very intensely rewarding lives, time is always short and relationships are often long-distant and stressed because of extended periods apart. Coping with these, and other obstacles, are critical if an entrepreneur and their partner intend on staying together—and staying happy. In Startup Life, Brad Feld—a Boulder, Colorado-based entrepreneur turned-venture capitalist—shares his own personal experiences with his wife Amy, offering a series of rich insights into successfully leading a balanced life as a human being who wants to play as hard as he works and who wants to be as fulfilled in life and in work. With this book, Feld distills his twenty years of experience in this field to addresses how the village of startup people can put aside their workaholic ways and lead rewarding lives in all respects. Includes real-life examples of entrepreneurial couples who have had successful relationships and what works for them Provides practical advice for adapting to change and overcoming the inevitable ups and downs associated with the entrepreneurial lifestyle Written by Brad Feld, a thought-leader in this field who has been an early-stage investor and successful entrepreneur for more than twenty years While there's no «secret formula» to relationship success in the world of the entrepreneur, there are ways to making navigation of this territory easier. Startup Life is a well-rounded guide that has the insights and advice you need to succeed in both your personal and business life.

A must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a major financial impact. As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we base our personal and business plans on uncertainties, whether they be next month’s sales, next year’s costs, or tomorrow’s stock price. In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savage­known for his creative exposition of difficult subjects­ describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. Along the way, he shows why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as healthcare, accounting, the War on Terror, and climate change. In his chapter on Sex and the Central Limit Theorem, he bravely grasps the literary third rail of gender differences. Instead of statistical jargon, Savage presents complex concepts in plain English. In addition, a tightly integrated web site contains numerous animations and simulations to further connect the seat of the reader’s intellect to the seat of their pants. The Flaw of Averages typically results when someone plugs a single number into a spreadsheet to represent an uncertain future quantity. Savage finishes the book with a discussion of the emerging field of Probability Management, which cures this problem though a new technology that can pack thousands of numbers into a single spreadsheet cell. Praise for The Flaw of Averages “Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam Savage’s lively and engaging book gives any interested reader the insight and the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages.” —William J. Perry, Former U.S. Secretary of Defense “Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been an academic ideal. . . . In this profound and entertaining book, Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical, practicable, and comprehensible.” —­Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics

The keys to having an outstanding career as a school leader. The American educational system is in crisis; trends of recent years have been extraordinarily hard on educators. An entire generation of school leaders is retiring, many of them early, and the number of candidates applying to replace them is plummeting. In many districts, applications have shrunk by nearly two-thirds. Seven Secrets of The Savvy School Leader hopes to counteract these glum statistics by giving both aspiring and experienced school leaders important survival tools, and encouraging long-term leaders to renew their faith in their own abilities. Describes the innate tensions inherent in leadership Explores the difference between dilemmas and problems Encourages leaders to make change by making meaning Offers guidance for being your best and bold self Written an expert on school leadership who has worked closely with thousands of schools over the years, the book will help anyone serving as or considering becoming a school administrator.

A Nonprofit Survival Kit for Hard Times «This is a must-read for all of us in fundraising. Mal Warwick includes practical approaches for difficult economic times, from zero-based thinking about our programs to strategies for relating to our donors and making certain our fundraising programs are prepared to succeed not only now but when the economy recovers.» —Eugene R. Tempel, president, Indiana University Foundation «Brilliant! No nonprofit organization can afford to ignore the insightful advice Mal Warwick offers in this concise and eminently readable book. It's practical, down-to-earth, and addresses the complex, real-world challenges of raising money in tough times.» —Ben Jealous, president, NAACP «Fundraising When Money Is Tight is an important book in a difficult time for all. This is the right book for anyone who is committed to advancing the public good.» —Jane Wales, founder, Global Philanthropy Forum, and vice president, Aspen Institute «This is a must-read book by any fundraising manager. It's timely, it's a good read, and the moment I put it down I made sure my managers got focused, got real, and got with the project today.» —Mark Astarita, director of fundraising, British Red Cross «Mal Warwick will leave you with a focusing framework and dozens of practical, immediately actionable how-tos. It is hard to imagine anyone in the citizen sector who will not breathe easier after reading this book.» —Bill Drayton, CEO, Ashoka, and chair, Youth Venture

Practical tips and easy exercises for relieving the stress of everyday life Get a Grip! offers powerful, prescriptive advice for living and thriving in our high-stress times. Integrating techniques that relax the mind, the body, and the spirit, it presents quick and easy ways to make the day less stressful-and get the most out of each and every day. For business owners, office workers, and even those who work at home raising a family, Get a Grip! helps them understand the sources of their stress and deal with it effectively with advice on such topics as: stress-busting exercises, breathing techniques, meditation, visualization, diet, attitude, humor and work/life balance. Though it's impossible to lead a completely stress-free life, Get a Grip! will help everyone-from CEOs to homemakers-deal with the difficulties of daily life. Bob Losyk (Fort Lauderdale, FL) is a business consultant, trainer, and international speaker whose clients include American Express, Honda, Marriott, Taco Bell, IBM, and Inc. magazine, among others. His articles on management have appeared in such magazines as Futurist, Travel Weekly and Training & Development Journal.

An insightful look at how to succeed by going against the crowd Collectively, people think and act in ways that are different from how they think and act as individuals. Understanding these differences, says William (Bill) Bonner-a longtime maverick observer of the financial world and the vagaries of the investing public-is vital to preserving your wealth and personal dignity. From the witch-hunts of the early modern world to the war on terror, from dot-com mania to the real estate bubble, people have always been caught up in frauds, conceits, and wild guesses-often with devastating results. In Mobs, Messiahs, and Markets, Bonner and coauthor Lila Rajiva show groupthink at work in an improbable array of instances throughout history and reveal why swimming against the current pays. Shares the deeper secrets of investing and pushes you to question what this means for your financial well-being Explains why people so often abandon good sense and good behavior to «follow the crowd» Offers concrete advice on how you can avoid the «public spectacle» of modern finance The authors' cautionary tale of bubble economies reveals how the gush of credit let loose by Alan Greenspan has wreaked havoc on our lives-but their thoughtful and always entertaining approach also offers some sound investing principles for avoiding the pitfalls of the public spectacle, thinking for yourself, and protecting your money, your sanity, and your soul.

We are facing a future of unbounded complexity. Whether that complexity is harnessed to build a world that is safe, pleasant, humane and profitable, or whether it causes us to careen off a cliff into an abyss of mind-numbing junk is an open question. The challenges and opportunities–technical, business, and human–that this technological sea change will bring are without precedent. Entire industries will be born and others will be laid to ruin as our society navigates this journey. There are already many more computing devices in the world than there are people. In a few more years, their number will climb into the trillions. We put microprocessors into nearly every significant thing that we manufacture, and the cost of routine computing and storage is rapidly becoming negligible. We have literally permeated our world with computation. But more significant than mere numbers is the fact we are quickly figuring out how to make those processors communicate with each other, and with us. We are about to be faced, not with a trillion isolated devices, but with a trillion-node network: a network whose scale and complexity will dwarf that of today’s Internet. And, unlike the Internet, this will be a network not of computation that we use, but of computation that we live in. Written by the leaders of one of America’s leading pervasive computing design firms, this book gives a no-holds-barred insiders’ account of both the promise and the risks of the age of Trillions. It is also a cautionary tale of the head-in-the-sand attitude with which many of today’s thought-leaders are at present approaching these issues. Trillions is a field guide to the future–designed to help businesses and their customers prepare to prosper, in the information.

A better development and implementation framework for credit risk scorecards Intelligent Credit Scoring presents a business-oriented process for the development and implementation of risk prediction scorecards. The credit scorecard is a powerful tool for measuring the risk of individual borrowers, gauging overall risk exposure and developing analytically driven, risk-adjusted strategies for existing customers. In the past 10 years, hundreds of banks worldwide have brought the process of developing credit scoring models in-house, while ‘credit scores' have become a frequent topic of conversation in many countries where bureau scores are used broadly. In the United States, the ‘FICO' and ‘Vantage' scores continue to be discussed by borrowers hoping to get a better deal from the banks. While knowledge of the statistical processes around building credit scorecards is common, the business context and intelligence that allows you to build better, more robust, and ultimately more intelligent, scorecards is not. As the follow-up to Credit Risk Scorecards, this updated second edition includes new detailed examples, new real-world stories, new diagrams, deeper discussion on topics including WOE curves, the latest trends that expand scorecard functionality and new in-depth analyses in every chapter. Expanded coverage includes new chapters on defining infrastructure for in-house credit scoring, validation, governance, and Big Data. Black box scorecard development by isolated teams has resulted in statistically valid, but operationally unacceptable models at times. This book shows you how various personas in a financial institution can work together to create more intelligent scorecards, to avoid disasters, and facilitate better decision making. Key items discussed include: Following a clear step by step framework for development, implementation, and beyond Lots of real life tips and hints on how to detect and fix data issues How to realise bigger ROI from credit scoring using internal resources Explore new trends and advances to get more out of the scorecard Credit scoring is now a very common tool used by banks, Telcos, and others around the world for loan origination, decisioning, credit limit management, collections management, cross selling, and many other decisions. Intelligent Credit Scoring helps you organise resources, streamline processes, and build more intelligent scorecards that will help achieve better results.