Introduction to Bayesian Statistics

A hands-on introduction to computational statistics from a Bayesian point of view Providing a solid grounding in statistics while uniquely covering the topics from a Bayesian perspective, Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics successfully guides readers through this new, cutting-edge approach. With its hands-on treatment of the topic, the book shows how samples can be drawn from the posterior distribution when the formula giving its shape is all that is known, and how Bayesian inferences can be based on these samples from the posterior. These ideas are illustrated on common statistical models, including the multiple linear regression model, the hierarchical mean model, the logistic regression model, and the proportional hazards model. The book begins with an outline of the similarities and differences between Bayesian and the likelihood approaches to statistics. Subsequent chapters present key techniques for using computer software to draw Monte Carlo samples from the incompletely known posterior distribution and performing the Bayesian inference calculated from these samples. Topics of coverage include: Direct ways to draw a random sample from the posterior by reshaping a random sample drawn from an easily sampled starting distribution The distributions from the one-dimensional exponential family Markov chains and their long-run behavior The Metropolis-Hastings algorithm Gibbs sampling algorithm and methods for speeding up convergence Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling Using numerous graphs and diagrams, the author emphasizes a step-by-step approach to computational Bayesian statistics. At each step, important aspects of application are detailed, such as how to choose a prior for logistic regression model, the Poisson regression model, and the proportional hazards model. A related Web site houses R functions and Minitab macros for Bayesian analysis and Monte Carlo simulations, and detailed appendices in the book guide readers through the use of these software packages. Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics is an excellent book for courses on computational statistics at the upper-level undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also a valuable reference for researchers and practitioners who use computer programs to conduct statistical analyses of data and solve problems in their everyday work.

The past decade has seen a dramatic increase in the use of Bayesian methods in marketing due, in part, to computational and modelling breakthroughs, making its implementation ideal for many marketing problems. Bayesian analyses can now be conducted over a wide range of marketing problems, from new product introduction to pricing, and with a wide variety of different data sources. Bayesian Statistics and Marketing describes the basic advantages of the Bayesian approach, detailing the nature of the computational revolution. Examples contained include household and consumer panel data on product purchases and survey data, demand models based on micro-economic theory and random effect models used to pool data among respondents. The book also discusses the theory and practical use of MCMC methods. Written by the leading experts in the field, this unique book: Presents a unified treatment of Bayesian methods in marketing, with common notation and algorithms for estimating the models. Provides a self-contained introduction to Bayesian methods. Includes case studies drawn from the authors’ recent research to illustrate how Bayesian methods can be extended to apply to many important marketing problems. Is accompanied by an R package, bayesm, which implements all of the models and methods in the book and includes many datasets. In addition the book’s website hosts datasets and R code for the case studies. Bayesian Statistics and Marketing provides a platform for researchers in marketing to analyse their data with state-of-the-art methods and develop new models of consumer behaviour. It provides a unified reference for cutting-edge marketing researchers, as well as an invaluable guide to this growing area for both graduate students and professors, alike.

A well-balanced introduction to probability theory and mathematical statistics Featuring updated material, An Introduction to Probability and Statistics, Third Edition remains a solid overview to probability theory and mathematical statistics. Divided intothree parts, the Third Edition begins by presenting the fundamentals and foundationsof probability. The second part addresses statistical inference, and the remainingchapters focus on special topics. An Introduction to Probability and Statistics, Third Edition includes: A new section on regression analysis to include multiple regression, logistic regression, and Poisson regression A reorganized chapter on large sample theory to emphasize the growing role of asymptotic statistics Additional topical coverage on bootstrapping, estimation procedures, and resampling Discussions on invariance, ancillary statistics, conjugate prior distributions, and invariant confidence intervals Over 550 problems and answers to most problems, as well as 350 worked out examples and 200 remarks Numerous figures to further illustrate examples and proofs throughout An Introduction to Probability and Statistics, Third Edition is an ideal reference and resource for scientists and engineers in the fields of statistics, mathematics, physics, industrial management, and engineering. The book is also an excellent text for upper-undergraduate and graduate-level students majoring in probability and statistics.

Introduction to Statistics for Forensic Scientists is an essential introduction to the subject, gently guiding the reader through the key statistical techniques used to evaluate various types of forensic evidence. Assuming only a modest mathematical background, the book uses real-life examples from the forensic science literature and forensic case-work to illustrate relevant statistical concepts and methods. Opening with a brief overview of the history and use of statistics within forensic science, the text then goes on to introduce statistical techniques commonly used to examine data obtained during laboratory experiments. There is a strong emphasis on the evaluation of scientific observation as evidence and modern Bayesian approaches to interpreting forensic data for the courts. The analysis of key forms of evidence are discussed throughout with a particular focus on DNA, fibres and glass. An invaluable introduction to the statistical interpretation of forensic evidence; this book will be invaluable for all undergraduates taking courses in forensic science. Introduction to the key statistical techniques used in the evaluation of forensic evidence Includes end of chapter exercises to enhance student understanding Numerous examples taken from forensic science to put the subject into context

Bayesian Networks: An Introduction provides a self-contained introduction to the theory and applications of Bayesian networks, a topic of interest and importance for statisticians, computer scientists and those involved in modelling complex data sets. The material has been extensively tested in classroom teaching and assumes a basic knowledge of probability, statistics and mathematics. All notions are carefully explained and feature exercises throughout. Features include: An introduction to Dirichlet Distribution, Exponential Families and their applications. A detailed description of learning algorithms and Conditional Gaussian Distributions using Junction Tree methods. A discussion of Pearl's intervention calculus, with an introduction to the notion of see and do conditioning. All concepts are clearly defined and illustrated with examples and exercises. Solutions are provided online. This book will prove a valuable resource for postgraduate students of statistics, computer engineering, mathematics, data mining, artificial intelligence, and biology. Researchers and users of comparable modelling or statistical techniques such as neural networks will also find this book of interest.

Tools to improve decision making in an imperfect world This publication provides readers with a thorough understanding of Bayesian analysis that is grounded in the theory of inference and optimal decision making. Contemporary Bayesian Econometrics and Statistics provides readers with state-of-the-art simulation methods and models that are used to solve complex real-world problems. Armed with a strong foundation in both theory and practical problem-solving tools, readers discover how to optimize decision making when faced with problems that involve limited or imperfect data. The book begins by examining the theoretical and mathematical foundations of Bayesian statistics to help readers understand how and why it is used in problem solving. The author then describes how modern simulation methods make Bayesian approaches practical using widely available mathematical applications software. In addition, the author details how models can be applied to specific problems, including: * Linear models and policy choices * Modeling with latent variables and missing data * Time series models and prediction * Comparison and evaluation of models The publication has been developed and fine- tuned through a decade of classroom experience, and readers will find the author's approach very engaging and accessible. There are nearly 200 examples and exercises to help readers see how effective use of Bayesian statistics enables them to make optimal decisions. MATLAB? and R computer programs are integrated throughout the book. An accompanying Web site provides readers with computer code for many examples and datasets. This publication is tailored for research professionals who use econometrics and similar statistical methods in their work. With its emphasis on practical problem solving and extensive use of examples and exercises, this is also an excellent textbook for graduate-level students in a broad range of fields, including economics, statistics, the social sciences, business, and public policy.

Presents an introduction to Bayesian statistics, presents an emphasis on Bayesian methods (prior and posterior), Bayes estimation, prediction, MCMC,Bayesian regression, and Bayesian analysis of statistical modelsof dependence, and features a focus on copulas for risk management Introduction to Bayesian Estimation and Copula Models of Dependence emphasizes the applications of Bayesian analysis to copula modeling and equips readers with the tools needed to implement the procedures of Bayesian estimation in copula models of dependence. This book is structured in two parts: the first four chapters serve as a general introduction to Bayesian statistics with a clear emphasis on parametric estimation and the following four chapters stress statistical models of dependence with a focus of copulas. A review of the main concepts is discussed along with the basics of Bayesian statistics including prior information and experimental data, prior and posterior distributions, with an emphasis on Bayesian parametric estimation. The basic mathematical background of both Markov chains and Monte Carlo integration and simulation is also provided. The authors discuss statistical models of dependence with a focus on copulas and present a brief survey of pre-copula dependence models. The main definitions and notations of copula models are summarized followed by discussions of real-world cases that address particular risk management problems. In addition, this book includes: • Practical examples of copulas in use including within the Basel Accord II documents that regulate the world banking system as well as examples of Bayesian methods within current FDA recommendations • Step-by-step procedures of multivariate data analysis and copula modeling, allowing readers to gain insight for their own applied research and studies • Separate reference lists within each chapter and end-of-the-chapter exercises within Chapters 2 through 8 • A companion website containing appendices: data files and demo files in Microsoft® Office Excel®, basic code in R, and selected exercise solutions Introduction to Bayesian Estimation and Copula Models of Dependence is a reference and resource for statisticians who need to learn formal Bayesian analysis as well as professionals within analytical and risk management departments of banks and insurance companies who are involved in quantitative analysis and forecasting. This book can also be used as a textbook for upper-undergraduate and graduate-level courses in Bayesian statistics and analysis. ARKADY SHEMYAKIN, PhD, is Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Director of the Statistics Program at the University of St. Thomas. A member of the American Statistical Association and the International Society for Bayesian Analysis, Dr. Shemyakin's research interests include informationtheory, Bayesian methods of parametric estimation, and copula models in actuarial mathematics, finance, and engineering. ALEXANDER KNIAZEV, PhD, is Associate Professor and Head of the Department of Mathematics at Astrakhan State University in Russia. Dr. Kniazev's research interests include representation theory of Lie algebras and finite groups, mathematical statistics, econometrics, and financial mathematics.

Shorter, more concise chapters provide flexible coverage of the subject. Expanded coverage includes: uncertainty and randomness, prior distributions, predictivism, estimation, analysis of variance, and classification and imaging. Includes topics not covered in other books, such as the de Finetti Transform. Author S. James Press is the modern guru of Bayesian statistics.

Explores computer-intensive probability and statistics for ecosystem management decision making Simulation is an accessible way to explain probability and stochastic model behavior to beginners. This book introduces probability and statistics to future and practicing ecosystem managers by providing a comprehensive treatment of these two areas. The author presents a self-contained introduction for individuals involved in monitoring, assessing, and managing ecosystems and features intuitive, simulation-based explanations of probabilistic and statistical concepts. Mathematical programming details are provided for estimating ecosystem model parameters with Minimum Distance, a robust and computer-intensive method. The majority of examples illustrate how probability and statistics can be applied to ecosystem management challenges. There are over 50 exercises – making this book suitable for a lecture course in a natural resource and/or wildlife management department, or as the main text in a program of self-study. Key features: Reviews different approaches to wildlife and ecosystem management and inference. Uses simulation as an accessible way to explain probability and stochastic model behavior to beginners. Covers material from basic probability through to hierarchical Bayesian models and spatial/ spatio-temporal statistical inference. Provides detailed instructions for using R, along with complete R programs to recreate the output of the many examples presented. Provides an introduction to Geographic Information Systems (GIS) along with examples from Quantum GIS, a free GIS software package. A companion website featuring all R code and data used throughout the book. Solutions to all exercises are presented along with an online intelligent tutoring system that supports readers who are using the book for self-study.

All new medicines and devices undergo early phase trials to assess, interpret and better understand their efficacy, tolerability and safety. An Introduction to Statistics in Early Phase Trials describes the practical design and analysis of these important early phase clinical trials and provides the crucial statistical basis for their interpretation. It clearly and concisely provides an overview of the most common types of trials undertaken in early phase clinical research and explains the different methodologies used. The impact of statistical technologies on clinical development and the statistical and methodological basis for making clinical and investment decisions are also explained. Conveys key ideas in a concise manner understandable by non-statisticians Explains how to optimise designs in a constrained or fixed resource setting Discusses decision making criteria at the end of Phase II trials Highlights practical day-to-day issues and reporting of early phase trials An Introduction to Statistics in Early Phase Trials is an essential guide for all researchers working in early phase clinical trial development, from clinical pharmacologists and pharmacokineticists through to clinical investigators and medical statisticians. It is also a valuable reference for teachers and students of pharmaceutical medicine learning about the design and analysis of clinical trials.